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pollutant emissions of vehicles. It is essential for the industry to continually look to advance the environmental credentials of oil, both in production and use, in terms of improving operational efficiencies and recovery rates, and in pushing for the development and use of cleaner fossil fuel technologies. <strong>One</strong> very important area where R&D and technological development will increasingly need to be applied relates to CO 2 emissions when burning fossil fuels. With the world expected to rely heavily on fossil fuels for decades to come, it is essential to ensure that the early development and deployment of cleaner mitigation technologies continues. CCS in geological formations is an identified technology with great potential in this regard. The IPCC has stressed that CCS has a large mitigation potential and could contribute up to 55% of the global cumulative mitigation effort by 2100. To help advance CCS technology and accelerate its deployment, several international initiatives have been established. These include the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) GHG Programme, the Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CLSF) and the Global CCS Institute (GCCSI). OPEC is actively participating in two of these initiatives, namely the IEA GHG Programme and the GCCSI. The recognition of CCS as a potential climate change mitigation option and the support given to the advancement of this technology by governments, research institutions and companies has already resulted in several integrated demonstration CCS projects being executed. However, more efforts are needed to speed up the full commercialization of CCS. How quickly this proceeds beyond the demonstration phase will depend on successfully addressing challenges such as storage potential assessment and storage security, public awareness and knowledge sharing. In the context of knowledge sharing, OPEC is collaborating with the IEA CCS Unit in developing a roadmap for the use of CO 2 for EOR by hosting a workshop on the subject in Kuwait in the first quarter of 2012. This workshop is expected to address the potential for utilizing captured CO 2 in enhancing oil and gas production in the Middle East region. While many countries are collaborating in the advancement and deployment of CCS, including OPEC Member Countries, it is envisaged, however, that developed countries should continue to take the lead in commercializing CCS, given their historical responsibility and their ability to develop the required technology and finance early projects. It is evident that technology will increasingly be leveraged by the industry to overcome existing and new challenges as it looks to minimize exploitation costs and reduce its environmental footprint. To ensure that the required technology is available, and at the right cost, timely and substantial investment in R&D is key. To this end, OPEC Member Countries are collaborating among themselves, as well as with 147 Chapter 4
148 other international research and technology development institutions to identify gaps and opportunities in all technologies in the petroleum industry. Dialogue & cooperation In a world of growing interdependence, the importance of dialogue is widely acknowledged. This is underscored in OPEC’s Long-Term Strategy and the ‘Riyadh Declaration’, which concluded the Third OPEC Summit in November 2007. OPEC has also been broadening and strengthening its dialogue with consuming and producing countries, as well as other international institutions. The issues at stake are complex, broad and inter-related. They require concerted efforts, and where appropriate, joint collaboration, to find adequate, cooperative and sustainable solutions. Close engagement with major stakeholders at various levels is essential to advance mutual understanding on common challenges, such as security of supply and demand, investments, cleaner fossil fuel technologies, environmental protection, the role of petroleum in promoting sustainable development and energy poverty. Expanded, in-depth dialogue, builds confidence, aids long-term market stability and can attend to the concerns of both producers and consumers, particularly at times of high volatility in markets. The global producer-consumer dialogue continues to evolve. OPEC, which has been actively involved in this global dialogue since its inception, collaborates closely with the IEF on a number of issues, including work related to the G-20 Energy Agenda and the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI). The latter has proved to be an effective vehicle for improving oil data transparency, and is recognized as an essential mechanism for the promotion of energy data transparency at the global level. On top of this, emphasis on international energy cooperation and dialogue, such as with the EU, Russia and China, will remain a high priority for OPEC, as well as with other international organizations, such as the International Energy Agency, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and various UN bodies. Over the past year, OPEC has also been heavily involved in collaborative work related to the G-20. A significant feature of the IEA-IEF-OPEC dialogue is the start of an annual series of Symposia on Energy Outlooks, the first of which was held on 24 January 2011, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. It offered a platform for sharing insights and exchanging views about energy market trends and uncertainties, as well as short-, medium- and long-term energy outlooks, not only from the three organizations, but invited external experts too.
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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is Japan itself, which has been ask
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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
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low, and well below levels seen in
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has also taken into account the pot
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stronger than previously expected s
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d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
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Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
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different picture. By 2035, Annex I
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78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
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80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
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82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
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n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
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ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
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88 Conventional powertrain technolo
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90 acquisition costs, and the lower
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92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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