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electric vehicles, which focuses on their development over the next five years. This has a number of specific targets including: reducing the production costs of batteries by 50%; having one million electric vehicles on the country’s roads by 2015; expanding the country’s capacity of power batteries to 10GW; and installing over 2,000 charging stations and 400,000 charging bays in ‘model cities’. On the issue of the environment, the plan focuses on increasing energy efficiency, reducing pollution, ensuring a stable, reliable and clean energy supply and further underscoring China’s commitment to environmental cooperation at the global level. A new Carbon Intensity Reduction concept is also included; in terms of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, the Plan sets a voluntary target to reduce this by 17% by 2015, compared to 2010 levels. The Plan also expects energy consumption per unit of GDP (energy intensity) to decrease by 16%, compared to 2010 levels. The previous FYP set a 20% energy intensity reduction target, which was almost reached (19.1%), although only with significant efforts from the country’s largest consumers. Both these figures are in line with China’s voluntary objective to reduce its energy intensity by 40–45% by 2020, which was contained in its submission to the UN Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009. It also laid out a commitment to generate 15% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2020. It will be interesting to see how the next five years unfold, particularly in terms of coal use, new nuclear build and energy efficiency. In general, however, this FYP appears to be a continuation of past developments in China’s energy sector. There are some ambitious targets for energy efficiency and changes in its energy mix, but the general trends remain the same. are nevertheless reassessed in the light of the tone and content of the new Plan, and the impact of rising retail petroleum product prices in China is also considered. The change, however, is not substantial, as China’s oil intensity rates decline in the previous WOO was already showing relatively strong efficiency improvements. Energy demand Over the period 2010–2035, primary energy demand 15 in the Reference Case increases by 51% (Table 1.5). Fossil fuels, currently accounting for 87% of the energy supply, will still make up 82% of the global total by 2035. For most of the projection period, oil will remain the energy type with the largest share. However, 49 Chapter 1
50 Table 1.5 World supply of primary energy in the Reference Case Levels mboe/d Growth % p.a. Fuel shares % 2008 2010 2020 2035 2008–35 2008 2010 2020 2035 Oil 80.6 81.2 90.8 101.0 0.8 35.2 34.5 32.3 28.4 Coal 66.6 69.2 83.6 101.5 1.6 29.1 29.4 29.7 28.5 Gas 52.0 53.6 66.6 90.0 2.0 22.7 22.8 23.7 25.3 Nuclear 14.3 14.6 16.6 22.5 1.7 6.2 6.2 5.9 6.3 Hydro 5.5 5.8 7.5 10.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.9 Biomass 8.5 9.2 12.8 20.3 3.3 3.7 3.9 4.6 5.7 Other renewables 1.5 1.7 3.5 10.4 7.5 0.6 0.7 1.2 2.9 Total 229.0 235.4 281.3 355.9 1.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Figure 1.10 Figure 1.10 World supply of primary energy by fuel type 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 mboe/d Nuclear/Hydro/Biomass/Other renewables 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 45 mboe/d Figure 1.11 Gas Oil Coal
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Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9: commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
Page 12 and 13: in the strength of the dollar: in N
Page 14 and 15: to this, there is the dominance of
Page 16 and 17: Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19: Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21: average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
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100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
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102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
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106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
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110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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112
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114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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