Section One

ut ownership in South Asia and Africa will still only be around one car per 20 people in
2035. The OPEC car ownership rate almost doubles, from 68 to 128 per 1,000.
Commercial vehicles
The Reference Case projection for commercial vehicles 39 is shown in Table 2.3.
Total volumes in 2035 reach just over 440 million, increasing on average by 3.5%
p.a., similar to the expected average rate of global economic activity. Once more,
developing Asia is the key source of growth, accounting for 55% of the global rise
(Figure 2.8).
Oil use per vehicle
Many factors will affect average oil use per vehicle. Wealth levels can have opposing effects,
positively, as increases in wealth affect car purchase decisions, but also negatively
Table 2.3
The volume of commercial vehicles in the Reference Case millions
Growth
% p.a.
2008 2020 2035 2008–2035
North America 30 37 43 1.3
Western Europe 38 49 69 2.3
OECD Pacific 25 25 26 0.2
OECD 93 112 138 1.5
Latin America 15 25 38 3.6
Middle East & Africa 10 19 37 5.1
South Asia 8 25 64 8.1
Southeast Asia 18 37 72 5.3
China 14 27 50 4.9
OPEC 10 17 28 3.7
Developing countries 74 150 289 5.2
Russia 6 6 7 0.7
Other transition economies 3 5 7 2.6
Transition economies 9 11 13 1.6
World 176 273 441 3.5
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Chapter
2