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onboard equipment, and better navigation and traffic control. Although some of these gains will be difficult to improve on in the future, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) 42 has adopted a voluntary target to reduce fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions by at least 25% by 2020 – per revenue tonne kilometre – compared to 2005 levels. 43 In developed countries, the market is approaching saturation, particularly in the US. Indeed, the lowest percentage increase in aviation passenger traffic over the past three decades has been in North America. Looking forward, it is clear that there is huge potential for air traffic growth in developing countries. This is borne out by the dramatic differences in aviation traffic growth observed across regions. While the world average for aviation travel was about one flight per person in 2007, it ranged from 0.006 flights per head in Bangladesh, to over 13 flights per head in Ireland. 44 Table 2.7 shows that while passenger kilometres flown in the OECD grew by an average of just over 3% p.a. in the period 2000–2007, developing countries’ flights Table 2.7 Passenger kilometres flown billions 1980 2000 2007 1980–2000 2000–2007 North America 452.5 1,225.5 1,436.6 5.1 2.3 Western Europe 206.1 852.0 1187.6 7.4 4.9 OECD Pacific 47.8 296.4 339.9 9.6 2.0 OECD 706.4 2,373.9 2,964.1 6.2 3.2 Latin America 33.1 103.0 116.9 5.8 1.8 Middle East & Africa 30.2 55.7 96.2 3.1 8.1 South Asia 18.5 49.4 100.8 5.0 10.7 Southeast Asia 43.8 228.9 340.6 8.6 5.8 China n/a 82.7 273.4 n/a 18.6 OPEC 23.3 39.3 176.6 2.6 23.9 Developing countries 148.9 559.0 1,104.5 6.8 10.2 Russia n/a 25.9 80.1 n/a 17.5 Other trans. economies 3.2 20.2 31.5 9.7 6.6 Transition economies n/a 46.1 111.6 n/a 13.5 World n/a 2,979.0 4,180.2 n/a 5.0 Source: ICAO online database, www.icaodata.com. 93 Chapter 2
94 rose by an average of more than 10% p.a. China grew by a massive 18.6% p.a., while OPEC countries’ flights increased even faster, as the Middle East emerged as an important hub for international air traffic. 45 The table also demonstrates the wide variation in traffic volumes: in 2007, OECD countries accounted for 71% of global passenger traffic. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) expects strong growth in air traffic to continue, with an average annual increase in passenger kilometres for the next two decades approaching 5%. 46 Close to half of the increase in traffic is expected to be from, or to, destinations in Asia and the Middle East. However, OECD traffic is also expected to continue to rise strongly, at well over 2% p.a. Tables 2.8 and 2.9 document the Reference Case levels and growth rates for oil demand in this sector. Over the period 2008–2035, average global growth of 1% p.a. sees demand growth approaching 2 mboe/d. Despite saturation effects, there is still growth in OECD countries. However, developing countries will expand faster in both Table 2.8 Aviation oil demand in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Growth 2008 2010 2020 2035 2008–2035 North America 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 0.2 Western Europe 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.1 OECD Pacific 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 OECD 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 0.5 Latin America 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 Middle East & Africa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 South Asia 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 Southeast Asia 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 China 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.4 OPEC 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 Developing countries 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.7 1.1 Russia 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 Other transition economies 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Transition economies 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 World 5.1 5.2 6.0 7.0 1.9
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
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Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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