Section One

etaining some oil-based power generation capacity, but it is not expected that this will
have a lasting impact upon oil use. It should be stressed, however, that some rural areas
in developing countries will continue to benefit from diesel-powered generators where
there is not the necessary infrastructure available for alternative means of electricity
provision. Tables 2.20 and 2.21 document the Reference Case projections for this sector.
The only net growth to 2035 comes from Africa and South Asia.
Table 2.21
Oil demand growth in electricity generation in the Reference Case % p.a.
1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035
North America –2.9 0.3 –0.2
Western Europe –3.7 –2.1 –2.5
OECD Pacific –3.2 –1.9 –2.9
OECD –3.2 –1.2 –1.6
Latin America 4.6 0.0 –0.8
Middle East & Africa 3.1 1.5 2.0
South Asia 6.7 2.1 2.5
Southeast Asia –0.5 –0.2 –0.4
China –3.0 –1.2 –1.5
OPEC 5.3 0.2 –1.0
Developing countries 3.1 0.5 0.2
Russia –8.5 –3.0 –3.0
Other transition economies –12.3 –3.2 –3.0
Transition economies –10.1 –3.1 –3.0
World –1.8 –0.2 –0.4
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