Section One

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Figure 4.1 Figure 4.1 World oil demand in the ATTP scenario 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 mb/d Reference Case 75 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 This effect is deemed small, however, especially relative to the overall downward stresses on demand. Figure 4.3 Table 4.1 documents the impacts of the ATTP scenario upon oil demand. The scenario results in a reduction in oil use compared to the Reference Case of 7.3 mb/d mb/d by 2035, when volumes reach just over 102 mb/d. The impact is summarized in 120 Figure 4.1. Higher economic growth 115 Table 4.2 shows how the supply side is affected in this scenario. Non-OPEC sup- 110 ply is close to 3 mb/d higher by 2035, compared to the Reference Reference Case. CaseConsequently, 105 Table 4.2 100 OPEC crude and non-OPEC supply in the ATTP scenario 95 ATTP mb/d 2015 2020 Lower economic growth 2025 2030 2035 90 Non-OPEC 55.4 57.8 59.4 61.3 63.4 OPEC crude 85 30.3 30.5 30.6 29.8 29.1 Difference 80 from Reference Case Non-OPEC 0.0 0.5 1.0 2.1 2.9 75 OPEC crude 2000 2005 –1.0 2010 2015 –2.7 2020 –4.8 2025 –7.6 2030 –10.2 2035 ATTP Figure 4.5 133 mb/d 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Chapter 4 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 0 mb/d 2000
134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035 shows a reduction of more than 10 mb/d compared to the Reference Case. The ATTP scenario effectively implies that there is hardly any room for additional OPEC crude supply in the future: indeed, by 2035, the amount of OPEC crude that will be required will be less than current levels. This underscores that OPEC upstream investment requirements are subject to huge uncertainties, and demonstrates clearly the genuine concerns over security of demand. Uncertainties over economic growth The global economic situation remains a concern for policymakers, businesses and individuals the world over and how the economic recovery plays out in the coming years will have a major impact on the oil industry. It is thus important to document how uncertainties over economic growth, in the short-, medium- and long-term, have very important implications for the evolution of oil demand and how this further complicates the challenge of making appropriate investment decisions along the oil supply chain. Uncertainties over economic growth have been brought to the fore by the recent global financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession. The prevention of a total global financial system collapse and the buoying of economies came at the cost of large expansions in the balance sheets of central banks, as well as huge fiscal deficits, which in some countries are believed to be reaching unsustainable levels. In the medium-term, there is now much concern about the need for fiscal consolidation and mitigating the systemic risks stemming from banks’ weakening balance sheets. Whatever happens, however, it is clear that countries burdened by heavy government debt will be hampered in their growth prospects if fiscal consolidation is not properly pursued. In the medium-term, new financial regulations that are currently being debated may act to dampen growth as they limit leverage and excessive risk-taking and increase the cost of capital, even as they attempt to prevent a repetition of future financial crises. Moreover, increasingly there are longer term questions being raised over the rate of economic growth in the face of a possible retreat of globalization. For the short-term, economic growth will remain uncomfortably reliant on further government support. An uncoordinated and premature exit of government support is a major risk in the short-term. There is rising concern about the rapidly deteriorating budgetary positions and fiscal sustainability of debt. <strong>One</strong> risk of ballooning government debt is that public debt issuance will crowd out private sector credit growth, with interest rates gradually
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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is Japan itself, which has been ask
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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
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low, and well below levels seen in
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has also taken into account the pot
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stronger than previously expected s
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d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
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Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
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different picture. By 2035, Annex I
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78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
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80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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Section One

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