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are slated to add production capacity in excess of 220,000 b/d, As a result, Indian crude oil and NGLs production is expected to increase from 850,000 b/d in 2010, to 1 mb/d in 2015. Elsewhere, Malaysia’s medium-term production is anticipated to stay flat at about 700,000 b/d. Vietnam’s production decline in 2010 will be offset by projects that will come on stream by 2013, including the Te Giac Trang, Hai Su Den, Hai Su Trang and Su Tu Trang fields. As a result, the country’s production is expected to remain at close to 400,000 b/d in the period 2010–2015. Supply is not projected to grow in Indonesia, Brunei, Papua New Guinea, Pakistan and Thailand. China’s crude oil and NGLs production experienced healthy expansion in 2010, growing from 3.8 mb/d in 2009, to 4.1 mb/d in 2010. This trend is expected to continue in 2011. Over the medium-term, production declines from the Daqing, Shengli and Liaohe giant fields are expected to be offset by additional volumes coming from new projects, such as Yuedong, Weizhou & Weizhou South, Chunxiao and other phases for Nanpu. These new fields are slated to add more than 300,000 b/d between 2011 and 2015. In the Reference Case, China’s medium-term crude oil and NGLs production is projected to stay almost flat, at 4.1 mb/d. Despite investment cutbacks in late 2008 and early 2009, particularly in the three largest producing transition economy countries (Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan), the region will continue to lead total non-OPEC medium-term volume growth. Crude oil and NGLs production in this group of producers is anticipated to grow from around 13.3 mb/d in 2010 to 14.2 mb/d by 2015. Russian supply grew from 9.9 mb/d in 2009 to over 10.1 mb/d in 2010. This trend is expected to continue in 2011. An anticipated decline in output from the Volga-Urals region is likely to be offset by additional volumes from a number of new projects. Over the next few years, projects including Prirazlomnoye (Pechora Sea), Yaraktinskoye Stage 1, Pyakyakhinskoye, Kuyumbinskoye, Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye (Phase I), Russkoye (Yamal-Nenets) and Vladimir Filanovsky are slated to add a combined production capacity of 750,000 b/d. It should be stressed, however, that taxation, investment, technology and field declines will continue to be significant determinants when it comes to Russia’s supply projections. In the Reference Case, crude oil and NGLs production in Russia is projected to stay flat at 10.2 mb/d until 2015. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will continue to lead production growth in the other transition economy countries. Crude oil and NGLs production is slated to increase from 3.2 mb/d in 2010, to 4 mb/d by 2015. In Azerbaijan, expansion will be driven by the continuing ramp-up of the Azeri Chirag Guneshli fields and the 117 Chapter 3
118 additional supply of 180,000 b/d from the Ciraq Oil Project in 2013. Azerbaijan’s crude oil and NGLs production is expected to increase from 1.1 mb/d in 2010, to 1.2 mb/d in 2015. In Kazakhstan, production growth will be supported by expansions at the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. Production from Kashagan Phase 1 will start in 2012. It is anticipated to result in additional capacity of 450,000 b/d over the medium-term. First production from the Tengiz expansion will start in 2013 and is projected to add another 370,000 b/d. It is important to stress, however, that it is assumed that oil export transport infrastructure challenges do not put a cap on production levels. Crude oil and NGLs production in Kazakhstan is projected to increase from 1.6 mb/d in 2010, to 2.1 mb/d in 2015. Long-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs The long-term outlook for non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply is influenced by a range of determinants, such as the oil price, technology, costs, fiscal conditions and investments. It is also, and more importantly, linked to the remaining URR by country and region. This calculation consists of cumulative production, proven reserves, field reserves growth due to improvements in recovery rates and a re-evaluation of the amount of oil in place, as well as estimates of discoveries yet to be made. The URR assessments are taken largely from the USGS. Estimates of URR have increased over time, and this process is expected to continue, due to technological developments, such as horizontal, multilateral and extended reach drilling, hydraulic fracturing, EOR, intelligent completions, data integration, as well as 3-D and 4-D seismic. The URR estimates used are presented in Table 3.2. Here, USGS URR figures published in 2000 have been used, supported by more recent updates where available. Adjustments have also been made to account for countries that are now producing oil, but were not included in the initial USGS assessment. This includes such countries as Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Thailand, Chad, South Africa, Mauretania and Uganda. On top of this, the large amounts of extra-heavy oil in Venezuela have been included. Table 3.2 shows that OPEC Member Countries account for the majority of world’s proven reserves – 80% in 2009 – and have considerably higher reserve growth expectations compared with non-OPEC. Cumulative production of crude oil plus NGLs is just over 30% of the original endowment. And more than 30% of the resource base is yet to be turned into proven reserves. It is important to look at how these resource estimates are used to put together feasible production paths for crude oil and NGLs to 2035. The starting point is to understand the relevance of standard reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios as a
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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is Japan itself, which has been ask
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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
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low, and well below levels seen in
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Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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Section One

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