Section One

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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per capita 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 mboe/d Figure 1.13 OECD Developing countries 1971 1990 2010 2035 The higher growth in developing Figure countries 1.14 is evidence of the greater economic growth in these economies, but also due to the persistent existence of energy poverty and the consequent huge requirement to satisfy future development needs with higher energy use. mb/d Figure 1.12 shows that, by 2035, the OECD will still be consuming three and a 97 half times more energy per capita than developing countries. If the comparison is limited to fossil fuels alone, the ratio rises to almost six times as much (Figure 1.13). 96 Although the gap in energy use per head is closing, it is doing so slowly. 95 Oil demand 94 93 Oil demand in the medium-term 92 The global financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession had enormous implications 91 for demand projections in both the short- and medium-term. For ex- ample, the WOO 2009 documented how dramatically GDP forecasts for 2009 were 90 revised: while in July 2008 expected economic growth in OECD regions for this year was in 89 the range of 1.3–1.6%, OECD economies actually shrunk by an average of 3.4%. This, in turn, had consequences for oil demand, which in OECD countries 88 87 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year of WOO 59 Chapter 1
60 contracted by 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2009. Moreover, the WOO 2009 mboe/d foresaw recovery from the recession as being only gradual, and this affected medium- 30 term oil demand prospects, which reached just 90.2 mb/d OECD in 2015 compared to the 96.1 mb/d expected in the WOO 2008. Developing countries 25 As discussed earlier in this Chapter, the recovery has in fact been swifter than expected. 20 This had already been factored into the WOO 2010, with increased mediumterm demand expectations. This process of re-evaluation has continued (Figure 1.14), with global economic growth for 2010 at an average of 4.7%. 15 As a result, the medium-term outlook for oil demand reflects an upward revision from 10 last year’s assessment. Table 1.6 highlights that the Reference Case now foresees demand reaching 88.2 mb/d in 2011, an increase of 1.6 mb/d compared to the WOO 2010 figure. By 2015, demand reaches 92.9 mb/d, an upward revision of 1.9 mb/d 5 compared to last year’s publication. However, it is worth stressing that risks appear skewed towards the downside, especially since the sovereign debt crisis in some EU countries 0 seems to be spreading and the world economy slowing down further, with 1971 1990 2010 2035 potential consequences for the global financial system. Figure 1.14 WOO projections for 2015 97 96 95 94 93 92 91 90 89 88 87 mb/d Figure 1.13 Figure 1.14 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year of WOO
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Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9: commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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Page 16 and 17: Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19: Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21: average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
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Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
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Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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112
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114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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