Section One

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Figure 2.17 The evolution of oil demand in the residential Figure sector 2.17 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 mboe/d OECD Developing countries 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Table 2.18 Oil demand in residential/commercial/agriculture in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Figure Growth 2.19 2008 2010 2020 2035 2008–2035 North America 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 –0.3 Western Europe 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.4 –0.5 OECD Pacific 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 –0.2 OECD 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.6 –0.9 Latin America 0.6 OPEC 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.6 Middle East & Africa South Asia 0.5 OECD Pacific 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.3 0.6 Southeast Asia North 0.6 America 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.1 China OPEC 1.2 Latin America 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.8 0.9 2.4 1.0 1.3 0.3 Developing countries Middle East 4.1 and Africa 4.3 5.6 7.3 3.2 Russia 0.3 Western Europe Other transition economies 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 –0.1 –0.1 Transition economies Southeast 0.6 Asia 0.6 0.5 0.5 –0.1 World 9.2 South Asia 9.3 10.2 11.3 2.2 Russia China Other trans. economies 107 Chapter 2
108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in residential/commercial/agriculture in the Reference Case % p.a. 1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035 North America –0.2 –0.5 –0.8 Western Europe –1.1 –1.1 –1.0 OECD Pacific –1.0 –0.6 –0.7 OECD –0.8 –0.8 –0.9 Latin America 1.0 3.2 2.3 Middle East & Africa 3.4 1.3 1.8 South Asia 4.5 2.5 2.4 Southeast Asia 2.5 0.9 0.6 China 6.8 3.7 2.0 OPEC 1.3 2.5 0.9 Developing countries 3.3 2.6 1.8 Russia –3.5 –1.1 –1.5 Other transition economies –5.3 –0.9 –0.7 Transition economies –4.5 –1.0 –1.1 World 0.2 0.9 0.7 Oil demand in the agricultural sector has also been rising rapidly in developing countries, with demand exceeding that of the OECD in 2003. This growth comes mainly from rising food production and the use of tractors. OECD oil use in this sector peaked in the mid-1990s and has been on a slow decline since. These two trends are set to continue. Given these various influences, the expected evolution in the Reference Case for aggregate oil demand growth in the residential/commercial/agriculture sector is shown in Tables 2.18 and 2.19. Demand in developing countries increases by more than 3 mboe/d between 2008 and 2035. The downward trend in OECD oil use is expected to persist, with demand falling by close to 1 mboe/d over this timeframe. As a result, global oil use in the sector rises by just over 2 mboe/d by 2035. Electricity generation The importance of oil as an input to electricity generation has dramatically declined over the past three decades mainly in response to the high oil prices of the 1970s and early 1980s. The most striking decline has been Asia: between 1980 and 2008 it fell
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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Section One

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