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to these factors, as well as the assumed robust economic growth, developing country oil use in this sector is anticipated to continue to rise steadily. Tables 2.16 and 2.17 show the Reference Case projections for oil use in other industry. This underscores the fact that only developing countries are expected to see a demand rise, increasing by more than 2 mboe/d by 2035, compared to 2008. As with recently observed trends, the strongest growth is in developing Asia and OPEC. Oil use in this sector in the OECD and transition economies is expected to remain approximately flat, or possibly decline slightly. Table 2.17 Oil demand growth in other industry in the Reference Case % p.a. 1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035 North America –0.4 0.2 0.1 Western Europe –0.4 –0.6 –0.6 OECD Pacific –1.2 –0.8 –0.4 OECD –0.5 –0.2 –0.2 Latin America 3.0 0.7 0.2 Middle East & Africa 1.7 0.9 1.0 South Asia 6.9 1.8 1.7 Southeast Asia 2.1 1.1 0.4 China 6.7 1.6 0.6 OPEC 3.5 1.8 0.4 Developing countries 4.1 1.4 0.7 Russia –1.7 1.2 0.2 Other transition economies –5.3 0.2 0.3 Transition economies –3.6 0.8 0.3 World 0.9 0.7 0.3 Residential/commercial/agriculture This sector covers residential oil use, other than fuel used for transportation, as well as oil use in commercial and public services, agriculture, forestry and fishing. Figure 2.16 shows that the residential segment is dominant, accounting for close to half of the oil consumption in this sector. 105 Chapter 2
106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use in residential/commercial/agriculture/other, 2008 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 mboe/d Residential Commerce and public services Agricultural/fishing Non-specified OECD Developing countries Transition economies More oil is used by the residential sector in developing countries than in the OECD. This has been the case since 2007. The strong upward trend in residential oil use in developing countries (Figure 2.17) is partly driven by rising income levels, which allows the switch to commercial energy use instead of traditional fuels, such as wood, dung or crop residues. This has important health implications in developing countries: indoor pollution involving the breathing in of fumes from these traditional fuels when cooking, leads to almost two million people dying around the world annually. Another potential driver behind this growth in the residential sector in developing countries is the move towards urbanization. In 1970, only 25% of people in these countries, on average, lived in urban areas, while by 2010 this had risen to 45%. This trend is expected to continue. In the OECD commercial sector, the downward trend is again apparent, given fuel switching away from oil, and efficiency improvements to oil-powered water and space oil-heaters. The trend in developing countries is opposite, as the number of offices, shops and hotels grow rapidly. However, this sector is not seen as a very strong driver for oil demand, and oil use in the developing countries’ commercial sector is still well below that of the OECD.
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
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Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
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Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
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Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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