Section One

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The Reference Case outlook for oil demand levels and growth rates in this sector are shown in Tables 2.10 and 2.11. As in the past, China is key to future growth, with demand increasing by close to 1 mboe/d over the period 2008–2035, which represents 82% of the global increase. Marine bunkers 47 Expansion in world trade inevitably means increasing shipping activity, but at the same time, oil use efficiency improvements in the marine bunkers sector will limit the scope for oil demand growth. This will be compounded by a gradual increase in the size of ships and, of course, the turnover of the capital stock as scrapped ships are replaced by newer more efficient ones (regulatory issues in this sector are looked at in detail in <strong>Section</strong> Two). Tables 2.12 and 2.13 show that the oil demand increase in marine bunkers is more than 4 mboe/d over the period 2008–2035. The biggest increase is in China and Southeast Asia, accounting for 78% of demand growth. Table 2.12 Oil demand in marine bunkers in the Reference Case mboe/d Levels Growth 2008 2010 2020 2035 2008–2035 North America 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 –0.1 Western Europe 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 OECD Pacific 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 –0.2 OECD 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 –0.3 Latin America 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 Middle East & Africa 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Southeast Asia 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.5 0.7 China 0.2 0.2 0.6 2.1 1.9 OPEC 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 Developing countries 1.7 1.7 2.4 4.7 2.9 Russia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Other transition economies 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Transition economies 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 World 3.7 3.5 4.3 6.5 2.8 97 Chapter 2
98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in marine bunkers in the Reference Case % p.a. 1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035 North America –1.1 0.0 –0.9 Western Europe 2.3 0.6 0.7 OECD Pacific 3.7 –7.6 –0.2 OECD 1.4 –0.6 0.2 Latin America 4.9 2.5 3.0 Middle East & Africa –0.3 1.0 0.7 South Asia -0.4 –4.0 –0.2 Southeast Asia 5.7 2.7 3.6 China 10.1 15.1 8.6 OPEC 4.6 2.0 4.2 Developing countries 5.0 4.4 5.2 Russia 0.0 6.8 5.6 Other transition economies 4.9 2.1 2.3 Transition economies 2.5 4.1 4.1 World 2.8 2.1 3.6 Other sectors Petrochemicals Oil use in the petrochemical sector accounts for over 10% of total oil use, both as feedstock and as energy to transform these feedstocks into products. Thus, the prospects for growth in this sector are an important element in assessing future demand patterns. Growing demand for plastics, synthetic fibres, synthetic rubber, detergents, paints, adhesives, aerosols, insecticides and pharmaceuticals, both for domestic consumption and for trade, underpins the sector’s demand rise. The greatest level of consumption at present is in OECD countries, with 61% of total global use, with most of the rest, around 30%, in OPEC and developing Asia countries (Figure 2.10). Since the early 1980s, new capacity has been progressively added in all world regions, but particularly in the Middle East and Asia. Regional developments, as well as other production technology- and environment-related trends, contribute to this industry’s restructuring in terms of regional capacity distribution, major players, feedstocks, global trades and economics.
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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