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Although these reduced growth targets are ambitious in the degree to which they imply a ‘cooling’ of the economy, they effectively reflect the more conservative view of China’s GDP growth that had already been incorporated into the WOO 2010 Reference Case. This had seen the medium-term rate of expansion fall from what was deemed unsustainably high rates. Moreover, the 7.5% GDP growth targeted for the 11th $/b 130 Post-WOO 2010 Pre-WOO 2010 120 110 FYP was not met between 2006 and 2011 as the Chinese economy actually expanded by an average of 10.5% p.a. Consequently, no further adjustment 100 has been made to Chinese medium-term growth, compared to the assumptions in the WOO 2010. 90 Long-term economic growth 80 Demographics 70 This year’s extension of the timeframe to 2035 means that the impacts of popula- 60 tion dynamics are even more pronounced, especially in terms of their implications for economic growth and energy demand trends. This applies to the slowing of Jul 2009 Figure 1.2 Crude birth rates births per 1,000 population 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Oct 2009 Jan 2010 World Apr 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Figure 1.2 Jan 2011 Developing countries Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, http://esa.un.org/unpp. OECD Figure 1.4 Figure 1.1 Apr 2011 Jul 2011 WOO 2010 nominal range to 2020: $75–85/b Oct 2011 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 37 Chapter 1
38 population growth, or even a contraction in some regions, as well as rising urbanization and an ageing population. Population growth rates have been declining historically and this is set to continue. OECD population increased by an average of 1% p.a. in the 1970s, but this had fallen to 0.5% p.a. by 2010. In developing countries, average growth has been higher, at 2.5% p.a. in the early 1970s, but this has also declined, reaching 1.4% p.a. in 2010. These trends have been strongly driven by changes in the birth rate (although changes in mortality rates and international migration are also key drivers). In OECD countries the number of births per year fell from over 20 per 1,000 of population in the early 1960s to just 11 per 1,000 by 2010, while in developing countries the rate fell from over 40 per 1,000 to 22 per 1,000 (Figure 1.2). The downward trend in birth rates is expected to continue. Table 1.2 Population levels and growth Levels Growth Growth millions millions % p.a. 2010 2035 2010–2035 2010–2035 2010–2020 2020–2035 North America 466 555 89 0.7 0.8 0.6 Western Europe 547 576 29 0.2 0.3 0.1 OECD Pacific 201 194 –8 –0.2 0.0 –0.3 OECD 1,215 1,325 110 0.3 0.5 0.3 Latin America 431 516 85 0.7 0.9 0.6 Middle East & Africa 882 1,422 541 1.9 2.2 1.8 South Asia 1,644 2,144 500 1.1 1.3 0.9 Southeast Asia 657 809 152 0.8 1.0 0.7 China 1,354 1,462 108 0.3 0.5 0.2 OPEC 405 586 181 1.5 1.8 1.3 Developing countries 5,372 6,939 1,567 1.0 1.2 0.9 Russia 141 126 –15 –0.4 -0.4 –0.5 Other transition economies 199 201 2 0.0 0.1 0.0 Transition economies 340 327 –13 –0.2 -0.1 –0.2 World 6,927 8,590 1,663 0.9 1.0 0.7 Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, http://esa.un.org/unpp.
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Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
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88 Conventional powertrain technolo
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90 acquisition costs, and the lower
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92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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94 rose by an average of more than
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96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
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98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
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100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
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102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
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106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
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110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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112
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114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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