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Table 3.1 Medium-term non-OPEC crude oil and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 United States 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 Canada 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 US & Canada 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 Mexico 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Norway 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 United Kingdom 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Denmark 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Western Europe 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 Australia 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 OECD Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 OECD 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.2 15.9 15.7 Argentina 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Brazil 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 Colombia 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Latin America 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 Bahrain 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Oman 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Syrian Arab Republic 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 Yemen 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Middle East 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 Congo 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Egypt 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 Equatorial Guinea 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Gabon 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Sudan 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Africa 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Middle East and Africa 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 Brunei 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 India 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Indonesia 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Malaysia 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Thailand 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Vietnam 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Asia 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 China 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 DCs, excl. OPEC 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 Russia 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 Kazakhstan 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 Azerbaijan 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Other transition economies 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.0 Transition economies 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 Total non-OPEC crude & NGLs 46.3 46.4 46.6 46.6 46.7 46.8 115 Chapter 3
116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s production of crude and NGLs is expected to continue growing over the medium-term, from 4.1 mb/d in 2010, to 4.9 mb/d in 2015. This represents the second highest regional growth among all non-OPEC regions, following the transition economies region. It is mainly supported by production increases in Brazil. The Peregrino (Chinook), Waimea and Marlim Sul Module 3 P-56 are set to add at least 300,000 b/d of capacity by the end of 2011. A further 15 major projects – Aruana, Baleia Azul (Whale Park), Tiro/Sidon, Guara, Papa-Terra, Whale Park expansion P-58, Roncador Module 3 and Module 4, Guara Norte, Cernambi (Lula) Oliva & Atlanta, Guaiama, and Carioca – with a total production capacity in excess of 2 mb/d are anticipated to further contribute to medium-term growth. In the Reference Case, Brazil’s production is set to grow steadily from 2.1 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d in 2015. Elsewhere in non-OPEC Latin America, Colombia crude oil and NGLs production is expected to increase by more than 110,000 mb/d, from 790,000 b/d in 2010, to 900,000 b/d in 2015. This expansion will come from the planned redevelopments of the Rubiales heavy oil field, Castilla, Quifa-14 and the La Cira Infantas. Argentina’s crude oil and NGLs production is anticipated to remain flat, at about 700,000 b/d. In the medium-term, non-OPEC Middle East & Africa crude oil and NGLs production is also expected to stay flat, at just over 4.3 mb/d. In the non-OPEC Middle East region, Oman will continue to depend on heavy oil developments and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) projects such as Mukhaizna, Qarn Alam and Harwel to offset declines and sustain a production level of around 0.9 mb/d. Oman is also planning to add about 45,000 b/d from Amal and Amin steam EOR projects in 2012. On the other hand, medium-term production from Yemen and Syria is expected to decline slowly. For both countries, the current high political risk adds another layer of uncertainty for medium-term projections. Crude oil and NGLs production in the non-OPEC Middle East is expected to fall slightly from 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 1.7 mb/d in 2015. In non-OPEC Africa, some modest growth in 2012 is expected in Ghana, Uganda, Niger and Equatorial Guinea, but this will be offset by possible declines in Sudan, Egypt and other countries. In the medium-term Reference Case, crude oil and NGLs production in non-OPEC Africa is thus expected to remain at approximately 2.5 mb/d. Medium-term crude oil and NGLs production in non-OPEC Asian countries, excluding China, is expected to see steady growth, reaching around 3.8 mb/d by 2015. India is anticipated to be the main growth area, with projects including the Bhagyam, Saraswati/Raageshwari and the Krishna-Godavari Cluster fields coming online. These
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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is Japan itself, which has been ask
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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
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Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
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Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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