monitoring

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UNCLASSIFIED DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE 3.4. Recommendations: Unilateral Measures The guiding principle for monitoring to detect undesirable nuclear activity should be detection of activities as early in the planning and acquisition of a capability as possible in order to provide the greatest number of options for slowing or reversing the effort. New ISR technologies, demonstrated in recent conflicts, offer significant promise for monitoring undesirable nuclear activity throughout the world. The nature of the monitoring challenge, however, is such that these technologies are most effective when applied in an integrated architecture. To accomplish that goal, the Task Force recommends that: • The IC (led by the National Counterproliferation Center [NCPC]), DOE/NNSA, DoD/DTRA and Department of Homeland Security (DHS)/Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), should develop a joint roadmap supported by the necessary systems analysis and engineering capabilities to implement an integrated, more comprehensive and responsive monitoring architecture for nuclear weapons activities worldwide, expanding upon the more general, but static approaches currently employed. As the legislated interagency lead for the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (GNDA), DNDO should incorporate this more expansive monitoring architecture into the GNDA. The monitoring architecture should be structured to: o Create “corridors of observation” in multiple domains (geographic, commercial, individuals, financial…) based on open source and available multi‐intelligence (INT) information; o Establish “patterns of life” within corridors that are suspicious; o Focus persistent monitoring assets on individuals and activities of greatest concern that emerge from patterns of life analyses; o Assemble and analyze data from all sources to support verification or identify previously unknown concerns; o Use results of analyses to iterate––i.e., to provide ever more focus for intelligence taskings, as well as provide guidance for needed improvements in technical and operational capabilities. It should also identify lead and support roles and responsibilities for its implementation. • National Security Staff (NSS) should request that DoD integrate the architectural elements into a global awareness system that: o Builds on lessons and experiences of successful national security capabilities, such as the Counter IED Operations Integration Center (COIC), NSA’s counterterrorism capabilities, NCPC’s counterproliferation efforts, and on DOE’s Proliferation Risk Analysis Program; o Builds also upon the lessons and experience of the IC’s Treaty Monitoring Manager 24 , which at the height of arms control monitoring in the late ‘80s and 24 The responsibilities of the Treaty Monitoring Manger are discussed more fully in the context of proliferation monitoring in Chapter 5. DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Chapter 3: Unilateral Measures | 36 Nuclear Treaty Monitoring Verification Technologies UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE early ‘90s proved an effective vehicle for coordinating the work of multiple organizations and collection activities; o Uses the Monitoring and Verification (M&V) national testing capabilities (described and recommended in Chapter 6) as the key operational assessment vehicle to test a range of scenarios. • The IC should recast DOE/IN’s historic “nth country” analytical capabilities into an “nth group” effort, adapted to the wider range of actors and designs accompanying both vertical and horizontal proliferation. o The “nth group” program should serve as a community asset for helping to characterize proliferation pathways from available data and advancing technology, and posit pathways to guide collection priorities. DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Chapter 3: Unilateral Measures | 37 Nuclear Treaty Monitoring Verification Technologies UNCLASSIFIED
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