monitoring
monitoring
monitoring
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• Even “traditional” nuclear powers are modernizing in some non-traditional ways;<br />
• The consequences of failing to detect clandestine materials/capabilities become magnified as<br />
disarmament proceeds;<br />
• As a result, the lines between intelligence and traditional “<strong>monitoring</strong>” are blurring.<br />
2. The technologies and processes designed for current treaty verification and inspections are<br />
inadequate to future <strong>monitoring</strong> realities, e.g.,<br />
• Identifying small or nascent programs,<br />
• Accounting for warheads instead of delivery platforms,<br />
• Characterizing nuclear vs. non-nuclear military operations,<br />
• Application of new technologies.<br />
3. Solutions must involve the collection and exploitation of a wide range of secondary signatures<br />
that allow more complete and integrated information on nations’ overall nuclear postures (civil<br />
and military), the networks among them…and other players.<br />
4. For both cooperative and unilateral actions, a paradigm shift is called for that includes:<br />
• Creating a national strategy and implementation plan supported by a planning and assessment<br />
team that cuts across agency boundaries chartered to identify needed capabilities that play<br />
against many scenarios;<br />
• Revamping the <strong>monitoring</strong> framework to identify proliferants early or well before the fact.<br />
The framework should:<br />
- Expand cooperative agreements;<br />
- Adopt / adapt new tools for <strong>monitoring</strong> (e.g., open and commercial sources,<br />
persistent surveillance from conventional war-fighting, “big data” analysis) across the<br />
IC, DOD, and DOE;<br />
- Develop and integrate technical capabilities with CONOPs;<br />
• Continuously experimenting to test assumptions, capabilities and approaches, and to get/stay<br />
ahead of adaptive proliferants;<br />
• Planning for a long period of building the political and technical groundwork for the next<br />
major steps, whether cooperative or unilateral.<br />
Closing the nation’s global nuclear <strong>monitoring</strong> gaps should be a national priority. It will<br />
require, however, a level of commitment and sustainment we don’t normally do well without a crisis.<br />
However, lessons from the past tell us that progress can be made with a sustained effort in which<br />
experienced and competent professionals can devote their careers to the quest and pass on their<br />
wisdom to successive generations.<br />
Dr. Miriam John<br />
Co-Chair<br />
Dr. Donald Kerr<br />
Co-Chair