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UNCLASSIFIED DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE executing a successful attack 41 to replace probability in the classical formulation of risk, when working with risk assessments of intelligent adversaries. Additionally, understanding the readiness level of an adversary and the expected time to attack can also serve as a useful risk proxy. Regardless of the exact risk metric or proxy used, risk (or some formulation of risk proxies) is likely to be a “necessary evil” as it allows for disparate approaches to be transacted together in cost‐benefit trade‐offs, and provides a consistent metric and method for analysis as new information and options become clear. A.9. Balancing Risk A key role of a portfolio decision methodology is to identify investments in capabilities that balance risks given the values of the decision maker. Investment risk does not only include cost and technical risk, but also institutional decision factors. Institutional decision factors are elements such as championship, mission, acceptance, and other factors that may prevent investments from being successful if not present. While not often considered in formal decision processes, they can have a large effect on the outcomes of decisions to acquire capabilities. Accounting for these factors in an M&V portfolio decision methodology is recommended. A method for achieving a “balanced” capability portfolio can be desirable to some decision makers. For the purposes of this work, “balance” is defined as having an appropriate mix of capability investments to maximize risk reduction in the outcomes, while being prudent about the investment risks associated with each portfolio asset. As an analyst considers capability options, a balanced portfolio may be very different given the values and risk tolerance of the decision maker and the investing agency. For example, R&D focused organizations may have a set of values that is more risk tolerant, and a balanced investment portfolio may be skewed towards the long‐term, high risk, high payoff projects. At the same time, an operational component may seek primarily commercial‐off‐the‐shelf solutions and a balanced investment portfolio may be skewed towards incremental, low risk improvements. Formal and quantitative methods for assessing the risk tolerance and the values of decision makers exist and should be extended in formulating an M&V portfolio decision methodology. 41 Wyss, Hinton, et al, Risk‐Based Cost Benefit Analysis for Security Assessment and Investment Prioritization, Sandia National Laboratories, 2011. DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Appendix A: Unabridged Description | 90 Nuclear Treaty Monitoring Verification Technologies UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD | DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Appendix B. Terms of Reference DSB TASK FORCE REPORT Appendix B: Terms of Reference| 91 Nuclear Treaty Monitoring Verification Technologies UNCLASSIFIED
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