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document title / titre du document TRP W ORK PLAN ... - emits - ESA

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<strong>TRP</strong> Work Plan 2005-2007<br />

Description of Activities<br />

TEC-SB/7935/dc<br />

12/Feb/09<br />

<strong>TRP</strong> Reference:<br />

Title:<br />

T602-01EM<br />

Solar Energetic Particle Environment modelling<br />

Solar protons with energies of the order of 1 to 100 MeV are generated sporadically at the solar corona, and in the solar wind<br />

by moving interplanetary shocks. They constitute an increasingly critical hazard for the design of interplanetary missions via<br />

their impact on optical components, solar arrays, electronics and humans, and are a significant hazard to Earth-orbiting<br />

missions. This activity will create new engineering models to address future needs, in particular: - ingest new data and to take<br />

into account recent advances in understanding the generation mechanism; enable automatic model update and establish<br />

community consensus; - rather than pro<strong>du</strong>cing only mission-integrated fluence for a given confidence level (for dose, solar<br />

array degradation), models will be designed to pro<strong>du</strong>ce new types of user pro<strong>du</strong>cts, including peak flux statistics, <strong>du</strong>rations of<br />

high flux periods, etc. (suitable for SEU rate and radiation background); - integrate databases of ion species and their fluxes<br />

into tools for SEU and background calculation so that past events and future scenarios can be simulated; - examine (limited)<br />

available data and improve physics-based shock-acceleration models to predict the expected event time profiles at non-Earth<br />

locations (near-Sun, Mercury, Venus, Mars,...) in order to get a realistic model of helio-radial variations to replace the (1/r^2)<br />

“rule of thumb” which leads to possibly over-severe environment specifications.<br />

Deliverables:<br />

Empirical model (solar proton fluence at 1AU) + update/maintaining method. Model extrapolationg + Fluxes model. Improved<br />

dose/SEU models (coupled with empirical). (SW IPR to <strong>ESA</strong> for operational activities (TBC)).<br />

Current TRL: - Target TRL: Prototype Application Need/Date: SW operational by 2008<br />

Application/Mission: Science, HME, EO, Telecom Contract Duration: 24 months<br />

SW Clause : - Dossier0 Ref.: T-10<br />

Consistency with Harmonisation<br />

Roadmap and Conclusions:<br />

Page 145 of 227

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