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Examination of Firearms Review: 2007 to 2010 - Interpol

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A novel model for prediction <strong>of</strong> a multi-component liquid being spilt for the purposeful<br />

intention <strong>of</strong> arson has been developed. The method presages concentrations <strong>of</strong> fuel<br />

vapours, evaporation rate and the flash point on a liquid fuel consisting <strong>of</strong> many<br />

components. The model uses Raoult’s law considering the activity coefficient and the<br />

estimated values corresponded well with the measured ones. 114<br />

One way model has been used <strong>to</strong> predict the ignition time and spontaneous ignition<br />

<strong>of</strong> some woods. The investigation has been both theoretical and experimental,<br />

consisting <strong>of</strong> pyrolysis and spontaneous ignition studies. The heat was radiated from<br />

upper electronic radia<strong>to</strong>r and ignition was initiated without other external sources.<br />

Four different radia<strong>to</strong>r powers and four tree species were tested. The modelling<br />

results matched well with the experimented ones. 115<br />

Different kinds <strong>of</strong> s<strong>of</strong>tware <strong>of</strong> numerical simulation have been used mainly by the fire<br />

prevention purposes. For example, the selection <strong>of</strong> a fire origin room has been<br />

determined by a mathematical, multicriteria decision-making model in which fire<br />

loads are estimated. 116, 117 Also experimental investigations <strong>of</strong> fire spread and<br />

flashover time in <strong>of</strong>fice fires have been made. 118 Furthermore, the data obtained<br />

from the fire ignition location, probability <strong>of</strong> fire spread or evaluation <strong>of</strong> risks <strong>of</strong> fatality<br />

119, 120<br />

in building fires can all be calculated by the Bayesian network.<br />

The Bayesian theorem includes two separate but important features <strong>of</strong> forensic work:<br />

the question if scientific evidence can be based on a probabilistic argumentation and<br />

identification <strong>of</strong> forensic analyses. The method helps in sorting and evaluating<br />

analytical information in complex cases. 121 A few publications considering the<br />

Bayesian network have been published. The first considers the logic and<br />

argumentative implications in which examination is made with a distinct perspective<br />

in order <strong>to</strong> avoid false interpretations. 122 The second reviews the use <strong>of</strong> the methods<br />

in chemistry, including forensic sciences, chroma<strong>to</strong>graphic and mass spectrometric<br />

methods. 123 The third article serves as a guide in parameter estimation when using<br />

forensic data. It is the first part which introduces the way <strong>to</strong> apply this method; the<br />

second part is on its way and will be published this year. It will demonstrate the<br />

network fragments as building blocks while constructing larger interference<br />

models. 124<br />

The number <strong>of</strong> tragic accidents and fires in road tunnels during the past decades has<br />

been a starting point for tunnel safety and simulations <strong>of</strong> tunnel fire events. 125<br />

Several fire safety studies have been made considering fire scenarios in road tunnels.<br />

Many <strong>of</strong> the experiments and their results can be used in other tunnels, such as<br />

subway or river tunnels. 111 Here only a few <strong>of</strong> them are cited, in case <strong>of</strong> interest or a<br />

112, 126-132<br />

possible need for fire investigations.<br />

5. Educational aspects <strong>of</strong> fire investigation<br />

There are some problems in teaching fire investigation, such as a lack <strong>of</strong><br />

uncontaminated fire fields, time dependence and varying circumstances. Thus the<br />

development <strong>of</strong> fire scene investiga<strong>to</strong>r students in understanding investigation<br />

theories, skills and applications has been studied in a virtual environment. A<br />

437

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