The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

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Ramp in High-Speed* Wireless Internet-Enabled Devices – Global Shipments Expected to Remain Strong (All metrics in millions, except growth rates) 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 08-13E CAGR Total Internet Enabled Wireless Devices** 291 434 592 686 893 1,114 1,309 1,503 20% Y/Y Growth 40% 49% 36% 16% 30% 25% 17% 15% Total 3G-Enabled Devices 135 219 319 385 548 708 843 990 25% Y/Y Growth 89% 62% 45% 21% 42% 29% 19% 17% Total Wi-Fi Enabled Devices 171 252 328 387 486 633 817 1,039 26% Y/Y Growth 21% 47% 31% 18% 26% 30% 29% 27% Wireless Stationary Internet Terminals (SIT) (1) 34 51 60 57 67 66 64 62 1% Y/Y Growth -81% 52% 18% -6% 17% -1% -3% -3% Gaming Consoles 29 47 56 51 58 54 48 42 -5% Y/Y Growth -4% 60% 18% -9% 14% -7% -11% -12% Home Appliances 4 4 5 6 9 12 16 20 33% Y/Y Growth 10% -2% 12% 30% 42% 40% 30% 25% Portable Internet Devices (PID) 81 109 146 171 207 265 325 376 21% Y/Y Growth -- -- 34% 18% 21% 28% 23% 15% Notebook PCs 81 108 127 131 152 183 218 247 14% Y/Y Growth 28% 34% 18% 3% 16% 20% 20% 13% Netbooks -- 0 16 34 40 49 58 63 32% Y/Y Growth -- -- 5067% 118% 20% 20% 20% 8% Internet Tablets (2) -- -- 1 2 8 24 36 49 117% Y/Y Growth -- -- -- 100% 300% 200% 50% 35% Embedded / Other Devices (3) -- 1 2 4 7 10 13 17 53% Y/Y Growth -- -- 100% 100% 65% 45% 35% 30% Wireless Pocketable Devices (WPD) (4) 177 274 386 457 619 783 920 1,065 23% Y/Y Growth 60% 55% 41% 19% 35% 27% 17% 16% 3G-Enabled Smartphones (5) 32 61 92 131 205 316 491 656 48% Y/Y Growth 99% 91% 51% 42% 56% 54% 55% 34% Wi-Fi Enabled Smartphones 15 37 56 87 141 226 351 526 57% Y/Y Growth 200% 150% 52% 55% 63% 60% 55% 50% % of Total Smartphones 18 30 36 46 55 64 72 80 Wireless Multimedia Players (6) 42 54 66 72 71 76 77 75 2% Y/Y Growth 8% 30% 22% 8% -1% 6% 2% -2% 3G-Enabled Feature / Basic Phones 103 158 227 255 343 392 352 334 8% Y/Y Growth 86% 54% 43% 12% 35% 14% -10% -5% Note: * High-speed = download speed of 512Kbit/s or above, generally includes all 3G / Wi-Fi devices, excludes GPRS / CDMA1x / EDGE devices. ** Total 3G and Wi-Fi enabled devices do not add up to total Internet enabled wireless devices as many smartphones contain both Wi-Fi and 3G chips. 1) Include wirelessly connected game consoles and home appliances such as TV, Roku, VUDU, phones, refrigerators, etc.; 2) Internet tablets include 8-10 inch devices such as the eBook readers, large screen media players and Apple tablets; 3) Embedded / other devices include wireless personal navigation devices, standalone cameras / video cameras; 4) Include all connected devices that fit into your pockets and that were intended to be carried around at all times; 5) We define smartphone as a) runs on an operating system; b) has Internet / email access; c) supports advanced functions like music, video, gaming, pictures, browsing, and messaging (some support navigation + mobile TV) and d) provides a standardized interface and platform for application developers. 6) Include Wi-Fi enabled small screen media players like the iTouch, handheld gaming devices such as the Nintendo DS / Sony PSP; Source: Morgan Stanley Research global estimates. 106
Significant Growth in 3G + Smartphone Users – 2.3B 3G (+3x) + 1.3B (+3x) Smartphone Users by 2013E Global 2.5G & Below / 3G & Above / Smartphone Wireless Subscribers, 2006 – 2013E 5,000 2.5G Peak = CH2:10E Global Subscribers (MM) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 4,083 4,067 3,935 3,989 3,848 3,602 3,080 2,455 2,348 1,928 1,503 1,281 1,055 947 688 694 430 521 273 299 396 153 206 128 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Total 2.5G & Below Subscribers Total 3G+ Subscribers Total Smartphone Subscribers Note: 2G / 3G subscribers by OVUM 6/09, smartphone subscribers by Morgan Stanley Research. E = estimates107
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The Mobile Internet Report Key Them
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What You are Reading - The Mobile I
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Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Wealt
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes… 3)
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes 6) Ma
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Key Theme #1 11
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Key Theme #1 - Wealth Creation / De
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Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Ma
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Winners of Each New Cycle Often Cre
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NCR Won Big in Mainframe Era, DEC W
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Compaq + Microsoft Won Big in PC Er
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Net, New Computing Cycles Create /
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New Computing Cycle Characteristics
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12,000,000 Mobile Internet Traffic
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Pace of company change related to m
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Rapid Pace of Corporate M&A Related
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Technology Companies Created > Weal
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Top Internet-Related Tech Wealth Cr
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We Know What Happened Over Past 15
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Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Ti
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2009 Global Top 30 TMT Companies by
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Key Theme #2 43
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Key Theme #2 - Mobile Ramping Faste
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = Fastest new
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Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop In
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Tech Cycles Tend to Last Ten Years
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User-Interface Revolutions (Overlai
Page 55 and 56: Broad base of IP-based mobile usage
Page 57 and 58: Wireless Network Primer GPS - Glob
Page 59 and 60: Increasingly, Mobile Phone Usage is
Page 61 and 62: Mobile Devices + Infrastructure Ena
Page 63 and 64: Cloud-Based Content / App Services
Page 65 and 66: Machine to Machine (M2M) Takes on N
Page 67 and 68: Rapid growth in number / type of mo
Page 69 and 70: GPS proliferation (and related loca
Page 71 and 72: GPS = 421MM Chipsets Sold in 2008E
Page 73 and 74: WIRED Magazine - “Inside the GPS
Page 75 and 76: 3G proliferation is a big deal. 75
Page 77 and 78: 3G = Key to Enabling Internet Usage
Page 79 and 80: 3G Penetration Inflection Points Va
Page 81 and 82: 3G Growth Still Concentrated in Dev
Page 83 and 84: USA Likely to Remain Most Dynamic 3
Page 85 and 86: Wi-Fi proliferation is a big deal.
Page 87 and 88: Wi-Fi’s High Speed + Wide Availab
Page 89 and 90: 100,000 Wi-Fi Households (USA) = 20
Page 91 and 92: Bluetooth proliferation is a big de
Page 93 and 94: Bluetooth = 1.3B Chipsets Sold in 2
Page 95 and 96: What Is a ‘Smartphone’ We defi
Page 97 and 98: Smartphone of 2009 = As Powerful as
Page 99 and 100: Mobile Internet - Leveraging the Ev
Page 101 and 102: Notebook PC + Smartphone Shipments
Page 103 and 104: Impressive / Rapid Growing Smartpho
Page 105: Consumer Internet-Enabled Devices -
Page 109 and 110: Unified Communication (UC) Voice (~
Page 111 and 112: If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier
Page 113 and 114: VoIP = Material Impact on Tradition
Page 115 and 116: Google Voice Putting User in Contro
Page 117 and 118: Social Networking - Global Phenomen
Page 119 and 120: Facebook = Garnering Rising Share o
Page 121 and 122: Powerful Devices (like iPhone) + Ne
Page 123 and 124: Video = High Usage + High Bandwidth
Page 125 and 126: Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop
Page 127 and 128: Key Theme #3 1) Wealth Creation / D
Page 129 and 130: Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation
Page 131 and 132: Apple’s Impressive Share Likely M
Page 133 and 134: iTunes App Store = Shot Heard ‘Ro
Page 135 and 136: iTunes App Store = The Killer Mobil
Page 137 and 138: Mobile App Definition A mobile appl
Page 139 and 140: Users / Developers / Apple = Likely
Page 141 and 142: Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B+ App Dow
Page 143 and 144: Most Downloaded Free iPhone Apps -
Page 145 and 146: iPhone Apps for Nearly Everyone - L
Page 147 and 148: Mobile Developer Mind Share / Focus
Page 149 and 150: Powerful mobile device usage trends
Page 151 and 152: iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Int
Page 153 and 154: Mobile Internet Operating System Co
Page 155 and 156: Handset Device Price / Volume Pyram
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High-End Quickly Becomes Low-End -
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iPhone 3G BOM = 33% Lower than iPho
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Apple iTunes App Revenue = Could Su
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Apple leads race for handset profit
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Apple + RIM = 13% Share of Handset
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Apple / RIM - Smartphone Leaders Co
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PC Platform Leaders (Microsoft + In
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Apple iPhone Base Case + Upside Cas
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Scenarios for Apple iPhone Market S
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The Apple Tablet Potential Should N
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Apple - Potential Long-Term Challen
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Google Android’s Open + Low Cost
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Apple may believe its platform mana
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In Technology, Products with Most /
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Multitudes of Android Phones - Tens
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Android’s Conundrum Open-Source S
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Next Generation Android Smartphones
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Apple’s Potential Long-Term Chall
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Native Apps Benefits Challenges For
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Native Apps Should Always Have Perf
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Apple = Likely Well Positioned to N
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Do Incumbents Have Apple-Like Poten
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Smartphones Not Relevant in Emergin
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Retail Sales (Not Carrier Sales) -
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Apple’s Success Has Been Proven i
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Buddhist Phone White-Box “Shanzha
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Don’t Expect Apple to Stand Still
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Carrier Exclusivity Limits Apple’
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iPhone Price Cut to $99 Would Elimi
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Ending Carrier Exclusivity = Could
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Battery Technology Constraining iPh
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Implications of New Horizontal Busi
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Apple’s Vertical Handset Model =
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = On Track to
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Apple iTouch - Key Companion to iPh
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RIM’s Vertical Handset Model = Pr
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Threats from RIM’s Vertical Integ
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Horizontal Handset Model Finally Em
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Opportunities / Benefits from Horiz
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Key Theme #4 235
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Key Theme #4 - Game-Changing Commun
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Facebook and Apple iPhone / iTouch
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Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch =
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Social Networks - Underpinning of I
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Social Networking Driving Consumer
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Social Networks - Gaining Material
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Facebook Platform - A Hub for Commu
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Facebook - Next Generation Portal f
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Facebook - Largest Share Gainer of
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Facebook / Twitter Replacing Tradit
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Communication on Twitter Not Only C
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Facebook Users = Heavy Content Crea
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Top 10 Facebook Applications - Game
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Facebook = A Platform for Advertise
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Facebook - Opportunity for Advertis
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Facebook - Advertiser / Vendor Succ
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Social Networks in General = Platfo
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LinkedIn - Social Network for Profe
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Like Twitter and Facebook, Foursqua
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Advertising Follows Eyeballs - Glob
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Facebook - Vibrant Developer / Appl
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Developer / Application Success on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Mobile = Future of Social Networks
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Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~
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Facebook Symbiotic with Mobile - Sh
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Carriers’ ‘Walled Gardens’ =
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Apple Unshackled Developers + Consu
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Mobile Commerce = Accelerator for O
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15 Years for Online to Reach 4% of
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Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce - W
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Deep Discounts - Invitation-Only Ti
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Traditional Retailers Using Pings t
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Key Theme #5 305
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Key Theme #5 Growth / Monetization
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Japan has led world by 5-10 years i
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ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix
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Mobile Revenue (ex. Data Access) pe
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3G Penetration - …Developed / Eme
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Why Has Japan Led the World in Mobi
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Rich Content / Apps / Services - Ja
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Powerful / Internet-Enabled Handset
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan as Proxy for Technology’s R
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Japan mobile monetization models pr
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Japan’s Mobile Online Commerce /
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Mobile Online Commerce - Promising
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Japan - Physical Products Gaining S
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ROW Also Making Inroads into Mobile
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ROW - Branded Mobile Apps Could Dri
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Digital Content (Music / Video / Ap
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Digital Content - Mobile Games / Mu
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Japan - Virtual / Digital Goods on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Developer / Application Success on
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Japan Mobile Paid Services 5 Years
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Rakuten Travel - Mobile Gross Hotel
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Mobile Advertising - Personalizatio
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Japan - Mobile Advertising - 24% CA
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Upside to Mobile Search Advertising
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Heavy Search / Display Advertising
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Interactive Video Advertising Revol
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Desktop Internet Monetization Evolu
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…While Premium Content Revenue (U
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At Margin, Advertising + Online Com
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Users Often Pay for Content as Long
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View of Paid vs. Ad-Supported Conte
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Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Out o
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History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeb
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Global Mobile Advertising Scenario
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Global Mobile Online Commerce / Pai
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem -
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem Re
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Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shiftin
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Google - Internet Search Innovation
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Amazon.com - Online Shopping Experi
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Some companies can benefit from tec
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How Mobile Internet Revenue May Evo
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Key Theme #6 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Key Theme #6 - Massive Data Growth
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The Carriers’ Capex Conundrum…
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Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier
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Global Mobile Data Trends Imply Ong
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Global Mobile Data Users - 29% CAGR
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Global Mobile Data Users - 55% CAGR
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Company- and Product-level Mobile D
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AT&T = 50x Mobile Data Traffic Incr
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Data = Increasingly Dominating Netw
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European Market Supporting Data and
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Smartphone Data Usage Will Rise wit
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Near Term, Mobile Internet Usage Su
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European Mobile Network Utilization
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As Data Usage Becomes More Importan
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Aggregate Mobile Data Network Suppl
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Network Congestion in High Density
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Total Network Capacity on a Cell Si
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However, As Smartphone Penetration
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Overview of a Mobile Data Network T
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Wireless Capacity - Where Does It L
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Network Improvement Timeline Step A
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Short-Term Network Improvements - H
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Short-term Network Improvements - W
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Wireless Backhaul Capacity Expected
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Mobile Internet Implications for Wi
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Wi-Fi Moves from Carrier Foe to Fri
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Wi-Fi Significantly Cheaper for Car
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Wi-Fi Network Coverage in Home and
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~7,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Access Points at
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Wi-Fi Case Study #2 - Boosting Valu
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Bottom Line = Wi-Fi Offload Will Be
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HSPA + Backhaul Upgrades Should Red
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Long-term Network Improvements - Ne
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Good News = Proprietary Network Opt
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Long-term Network Improvements - Up
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HSPA / LTE Buildout Roadmap - Succe
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LTE = 24x Theoretical Bandwidth of
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39 Operators in 19 Countries Alread
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LTE Introduction Cost Should Be Low
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New Lower Spectrum Allocations, Suc
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Spectral Efficiency ((Bit/S)/Hz), p
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What effect will long-term network
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Raw Network Capacity Improvement Ca
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Underlying Technology Improvements
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Case Study - 2010E Capex Analysis f
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AT&T Plans to Increase Capacity in
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Network Sharing Is Becoming Increas
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In the USA and W. Europe, Carrier V
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Premium Voice + SMS Revenue Share L
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Rapid Consumer / Business Adoption
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VoIP International Long Distance (I
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Mobile Texting Revenue Growth Slowi
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Global Mobile Voice TTM Revenue of
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Mobile Data Pricing Models in Flux
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Flat-Rate Pricing = Necessary for U
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Flat-Rate Wireless Data Plans - Pro
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Flat-Rate Pricing May Also Encourag
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Wireline Broadband Tiered Pricing C
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KDDI Tiered Flat-Rate Pricing Cater
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Bell Canada Combo Plans Bring Tiere
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Base Case USA / W. Europe Carrier O
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Key Scenario Drivers for US Wireles
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USA Wireless Revenue Base Case Scen
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Total ARPU Expected to Decline Slig
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Non-Text Revenue = Key to Data Reve
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W. Europe* Wireless Service Revenue
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Implied W. Europe Wireless Carrier
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Scale, Access to Spectrum and Capit
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…10 Attributes of Winning Wireles
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Scale = Key Competitive Advantage f
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USA Spectrum Holdings - Larger Carr
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Exclusive Devices (such as iPhone)
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But Carrying the iPhone Is Mixed Bl
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Competitive Share Gain Opportunitie
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Scenario: AT&T Loses iPhone Exclusi
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Opportunities for Network Equipment
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Total Wireless Equipment Revenue Ex
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Network Services Is Now ~$80B Addre
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Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by Co
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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Key Theme #7 563
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Key Theme #7 - Compelling Opportuni
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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At Inflection Point, Long-Term EM O
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Opportunities Could Be Significant
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Over Time, Impact of Mobile Interne
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…Caused in Part by Sub-20% Fixed-
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3G / Wireless = ‘Only Choice’ f
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Vibrant Mobile Value-Added Services
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Emerging Asia VAS Revenue Share Alr
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Emerging Market Carriers Adapted to
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Bharti-Airtel = Cost Savings from O
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Compressing Wireless Data Could Red
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Emerging Markets - Some Near-Term 3
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Near-Term 3G Adoption Barriers = Lo
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Low Post-Paid Ratio + Low GDP per C
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High Monthly Data Plan Costs = Near
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Emerging Markets Regional Analysis
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Regional Analysis / Forecast - Chin
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Chinese Consumers Are Ready for 3G
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3G Creates New Battle Ground for Ch
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iPhone Costs Too High for Majority
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Key Scenario Drivers for China Wire
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China Wireless Revenue Base Case Sc
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Data ARPU Growth Expected to Partia
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India - Near-term Barriers to 3G Ad
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India - Upcoming Auction to Bring 3
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Base Case: Winning 3G Spectrum Does
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Capex Required for 3G Network Could
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Other Emerging Asia - Low Fixed-Lin
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Philippines - Mobile Overtook Fixed
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Indonesia - Mobile Could Accelerate
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WiMAX in Emerging Asia - Still in N
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EEMEA - Carriers Leverage Cost-Effe
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Africa - Mobile Broadband Prolifera
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Middle East + Africa Have the Lowes
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Key Scenario Drivers for Russia Wir
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Key Theme #8 639
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Key Theme #8 - Regulators Can Help
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Net Neutrality - Key to Decentraliz
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In the US, FCC Has Issued a “Noti
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Both Sides of Net Neutrality Debate
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What Could Regulators Do to Acceler
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Lower Mobile Data Roaming Fees = En
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“Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY) P
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3G Licenses Reshape China’s Compe
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USA Recent Developments - USA F
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Recent Developments - China / India
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Morgan S
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Within t
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Analyst
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Stock Pr
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Importan
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Disclosure Section (cont.) MTN does
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