The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid Services / Advertising Revenue Share Likely to
Rise to 45% of Ecosystem in 2013E from 24% in 2005, per MS Japan Estimate
08-13E
C2005E C2009E C2013E CAGR Comments
Japan Mobile Internet Revenue ($MM) $27,283 $46,679 $60,395 7%
Y/Y Growth 17% 10% 5%
Japan Mobile Internet Users (MM) 83 97 104 2%
Y/Y Growth 6% 2% 1%
Mobile Internet Revenue Per User ($) $329 $482 $580
Y/Y Growth 10% 7% 4%
Data access revenue still / will dominate
Mobile Data Access Revenue ($MM) $19,771 $29,580 $33,450 4%
Y/Y Growth 9% 6% 2%
Share of Total 72 63 55
Mobile Online Commerce Revenue ($MM) $4,692 $10,356 $15,326 11%
Y/Y Growth 31% 16% 7%
Share of Total 17 22 25
Digital / Virtual Goods $3,150 $5,695 $7,731 9%
Y/Y Growth 21% 15% 3%
Share of Total 12 12 13
Physical Goods $1,542 $4,661 $7,594 14%
Y/Y Growth 59% 18% 10%
Share of Total 6 10 13
Mobile Paid Services Revenue ($MM) $2,532 $5,634 $8,985 13%
Y/Y Growth 56% 16% 10%
Share of Total 9 12 15
Mobile Advertising Revenue ($MM) $288 $1,109 $2,635 24%
Y/Y Growth -- 22% 18%
Share of Total 1 2 4
Largest share of ecosystem revenue, but lowest growth rates
as the industry has moved to flat-rate pricing + high
penetration of mobile Internet users
Largest category excluding access, includes mobile sales of
physical / digital / virtual goods
Includes ringtones / wallpapers / apps / avatar…sales; growth rates
should taper off as ringtones / wallpapers become free, offset by
rising apps / games / virtual items revenue
Include mobile online shopping / auction; should witness more
robust growth than digital goods as payment / other infrastructure
standardize
Include travel / entertainment ticket booking / mobile banking /
brokerage services
Include display / search ads, growth should be most robust
owing to underpenetration + improving personalizaton /
location targeting ability
Note: Mobile online commerce includes retail sales of physical goods and digital / virtual goods such as ringtones /
wallpapers / avatars. Source: Nema Naoshi / Hironori Tanaka for Japan data, Morgan Stanley Research.
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