The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

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Shareholder Value Creation / Destruction – Pattern Recognition Balance of power / profitability likely to shift away from carriers over the short-term and away from infrastructure / device manufacturers over long-term to software / service providers As information is democratized / decentralized, users will increasingly be in control – amplifying a trend which has been in place for more than a decade – this should benefit innovative service providers while marginalizing / commoditizing slow-moving incumbents Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. 40
2009 Global Top 30 TMT Companies by Market Value – USA Technology Companies Led Rankings Market Value Rank Company Type Region Country Mkt Val ($MM) 11/31/2009 3-Month Average Trade Vol. ($MM) 12-Month Price Change (%) Price 11/31/2009 2009 YTD Sales ($MM) Y/Y Growth 1 Microsoft Tech N. America USA $260,058 $1,658 43% $29 $39,667 -13% 35% 2 China <strong>Mobile</strong> Telecom Asia / Pacific China 185,690 257 5% 9 31,208 15% 35 3 Google Tech N. America USA 183,746 1,545 98% 580 16,938 5% 34 4 Apple Tech N. America USA 180,492 3,548 111% 201 26,370 15% 22 5 IBM Tech N. America USA 165,120 856 54% 126 68,527 -11% 17 6 AT&T Telecom N. America USA 159,241 778 -5% 27 92,160 -1% 17 7 Telefonica Telecom Europe Spain 136,076 1,742 44% 29 58,329 -11% 24 8 Cisco Tech N. America USA 134,458 1,045 43% 23 25,786 -14% 18 9 Vodafone Telecom Europe UK 120,033 287 17% 2 34,826 -2% 31 10 HP Tech N. America USA 116,885 710 39% 49 83,602 -1% 9 11 Oracle Tech N. America USA 110,715 710 37% 22 17,368 -3% 35 12 Intel Tech N. America USA 105,487 1,210 37% 19 24,558 -16% 28 13 Verizon Telecom N. America USA 89,850 590 -3% 32 80,717 11% 18 14 Samsung Tech Asia / Pacific S. Korea 89,227 268 89% 606 83,560 14% 7 15 America Movil Telecom Latin America Mexico 77,972 84 57% 2 21,179 -10% 27 16 Qualcomm Tech N. America USA 75,088 806 34% 45 7,898 -9% 22 17 France Telecom Telecom Europe France 68,720 232 1% 26 35,709 -14% 20 18 NTT DoCoMo Telecom Asia / Pacific Japan 65,389 106 -13% 1,488 33,919 2% 22 19 Deutsche Telekom Telecom Europe Germany 64,314 240 3% 15 67,659 -2% 13 20 SAP Tech Europe Germany 58,925 239 38% 48 10,463 -15% 25 21 Amazon.com Tech N. America USA 57,043 1,137 200% 132 14,989 20% 5 22 NTT Telecom Asia / Pacific Japan 55,859 98 -9% 42 80,963 5% 13 23 Walt Disney Media N. America USA 55,185 374 35% 30 26,550 -3% 16 24 Nokia Tech Europe Finland 49,255 284 -7% 13 40,555 -30% 5 25 Canon Tech Asia / Pacific Japan 49,225 148 24% 37 23,831 -20% 8 26 TSMC Tech Asia / Pacific Taiwan 47,588 105 59% 2 6,224 -28% 36 27 Comcast Media N. America USA 42,478 380 -11% 15 26,575 4% 19 28 Telstra Telecom Asia / Pacific Australia 38,234 204 14% 3 10,236 -13% 28 29 Time Warner Media N. America USA 36,125 226 19% 31 20,889 -7% 20 30 Hon Hai Precision Tech Asia / Pacific Taiwan 35,851 124 174% 4 41,122 -8% 4 Total $2,914,331 $19,991 $1,152,378 -2% 16 15 Technology 1,719,164 14,393 531,459 -5% 12 11 Telecom 1,061,378 4,618 546,905 0% 17 4 Media 133,788 980 74,014 -2% 13 Note: YTD Revenue for China <strong>Mobile</strong>, Vodafone, France Telecom, and Telstra represents only six months of revenue, as these companies only report semiannually All data as of 11/31/2009. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research. 2009 YTD Operating Margin 41
Page 1 and 2: The Mobile Internet Report Key Them
Page 3 and 4: What You are Reading - The Mobile I
Page 5 and 6: Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Wealt
Page 7 and 8: …Key Mobile Internet Themes… 3)
Page 9 and 10: …Key Mobile Internet Themes 6) Ma
Page 11 and 12: Key Theme #1 11
Page 13 and 14: Key Theme #1 - Wealth Creation / De
Page 15 and 16: Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Ma
Page 17 and 18: Winners of Each New Cycle Often Cre
Page 19 and 20: NCR Won Big in Mainframe Era, DEC W
Page 21 and 22: Compaq + Microsoft Won Big in PC Er
Page 23 and 24: Net, New Computing Cycles Create /
Page 25 and 26: New Computing Cycle Characteristics
Page 27 and 28: 12,000,000 Mobile Internet Traffic
Page 29 and 30: Pace of company change related to m
Page 31 and 32: Rapid Pace of Corporate M&A Related
Page 33 and 34: Technology Companies Created > Weal
Page 35 and 36: Top Internet-Related Tech Wealth Cr
Page 37 and 38: We Know What Happened Over Past 15
Page 39: Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Ti
Page 43 and 44: Key Theme #2 43
Page 45 and 46: Key Theme #2 - Mobile Ramping Faste
Page 47 and 48: Apple iPhone + iTouch = Fastest new
Page 49 and 50: Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop In
Page 51 and 52: Tech Cycles Tend to Last Ten Years
Page 53 and 54: User-Interface Revolutions (Overlai
Page 55 and 56: Broad base of IP-based mobile usage
Page 57 and 58: Wireless Network Primer GPS - Glob
Page 59 and 60: Increasingly, Mobile Phone Usage is
Page 61 and 62: Mobile Devices + Infrastructure Ena
Page 63 and 64: Cloud-Based Content / App Services
Page 65 and 66: Machine to Machine (M2M) Takes on N
Page 67 and 68: Rapid growth in number / type of mo
Page 69 and 70: GPS proliferation (and related loca
Page 71 and 72: GPS = 421MM Chipsets Sold in 2008E
Page 73 and 74: WIRED Magazine - “Inside the GPS
Page 75 and 76: 3G proliferation is a big deal. 75
Page 77 and 78: 3G = Key to Enabling Internet Usage
Page 79 and 80: 3G Penetration Inflection Points Va
Page 81 and 82: 3G Growth Still Concentrated in Dev
Page 83 and 84: USA Likely to Remain Most Dynamic 3
Page 85 and 86: Wi-Fi proliferation is a big deal.
Page 87 and 88: Wi-Fi’s High Speed + Wide Availab
Page 89 and 90: 100,000 Wi-Fi Households (USA) = 20
Page 91 and 92:
Bluetooth proliferation is a big de
Page 93 and 94:
Bluetooth = 1.3B Chipsets Sold in 2
Page 95 and 96:
What Is a ‘Smartphone’ We defi
Page 97 and 98:
Smartphone of 2009 = As Powerful as
Page 99 and 100:
Mobile Internet - Leveraging the Ev
Page 101 and 102:
Notebook PC + Smartphone Shipments
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Impressive / Rapid Growing Smartpho
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Consumer Internet-Enabled Devices -
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Significant Growth in 3G + Smartpho
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Unified Communication (UC) Voice (~
Page 111 and 112:
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier
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VoIP = Material Impact on Tradition
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Google Voice Putting User in Contro
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Social Networking - Global Phenomen
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Facebook = Garnering Rising Share o
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Powerful Devices (like iPhone) + Ne
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Video = High Usage + High Bandwidth
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Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop
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Key Theme #3 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation
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Apple’s Impressive Share Likely M
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iTunes App Store = Shot Heard ‘Ro
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iTunes App Store = The Killer Mobil
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Mobile App Definition A mobile appl
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Users / Developers / Apple = Likely
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Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B+ App Dow
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Most Downloaded Free iPhone Apps -
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iPhone Apps for Nearly Everyone - L
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Mobile Developer Mind Share / Focus
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Powerful mobile device usage trends
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iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Int
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Mobile Internet Operating System Co
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Handset Device Price / Volume Pyram
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High-End Quickly Becomes Low-End -
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iPhone 3G BOM = 33% Lower than iPho
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Apple iTunes App Revenue = Could Su
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Apple leads race for handset profit
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Apple + RIM = 13% Share of Handset
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Apple / RIM - Smartphone Leaders Co
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PC Platform Leaders (Microsoft + In
Page 171 and 172:
Apple iPhone Base Case + Upside Cas
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Scenarios for Apple iPhone Market S
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The Apple Tablet Potential Should N
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Apple - Potential Long-Term Challen
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Google Android’s Open + Low Cost
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Apple may believe its platform mana
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In Technology, Products with Most /
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Multitudes of Android Phones - Tens
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Android’s Conundrum Open-Source S
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Next Generation Android Smartphones
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Apple’s Potential Long-Term Chall
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Native Apps Benefits Challenges For
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Native Apps Should Always Have Perf
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Apple = Likely Well Positioned to N
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Do Incumbents Have Apple-Like Poten
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Smartphones Not Relevant in Emergin
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Retail Sales (Not Carrier Sales) -
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Apple’s Success Has Been Proven i
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Buddhist Phone White-Box “Shanzha
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Don’t Expect Apple to Stand Still
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Carrier Exclusivity Limits Apple’
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iPhone Price Cut to $99 Would Elimi
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Ending Carrier Exclusivity = Could
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Battery Technology Constraining iPh
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Implications of New Horizontal Busi
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Apple’s Vertical Handset Model =
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = On Track to
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Apple iTouch - Key Companion to iPh
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RIM’s Vertical Handset Model = Pr
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Threats from RIM’s Vertical Integ
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Horizontal Handset Model Finally Em
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Opportunities / Benefits from Horiz
Page 235 and 236:
Key Theme #4 235
Page 237 and 238:
Key Theme #4 - Game-Changing Commun
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Facebook and Apple iPhone / iTouch
Page 241 and 242:
Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch =
Page 243 and 244:
Social Networks - Underpinning of I
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Social Networking Driving Consumer
Page 247 and 248:
Social Networks - Gaining Material
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Facebook Platform - A Hub for Commu
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Facebook - Next Generation Portal f
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Facebook - Largest Share Gainer of
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Facebook / Twitter Replacing Tradit
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Communication on Twitter Not Only C
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Facebook Users = Heavy Content Crea
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Top 10 Facebook Applications - Game
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Facebook = A Platform for Advertise
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Facebook - Opportunity for Advertis
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Facebook - Advertiser / Vendor Succ
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Social Networks in General = Platfo
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LinkedIn - Social Network for Profe
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Like Twitter and Facebook, Foursqua
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Advertising Follows Eyeballs - Glob
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Facebook - Vibrant Developer / Appl
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Developer / Application Success on
Page 281 and 282:
China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
Page 283 and 284:
Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Mobile = Future of Social Networks
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Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~
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Facebook Symbiotic with Mobile - Sh
Page 291 and 292:
Carriers’ ‘Walled Gardens’ =
Page 293 and 294:
Apple Unshackled Developers + Consu
Page 295 and 296:
Mobile Commerce = Accelerator for O
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15 Years for Online to Reach 4% of
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Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce - W
Page 301 and 302:
Deep Discounts - Invitation-Only Ti
Page 303 and 304:
Traditional Retailers Using Pings t
Page 305 and 306:
Key Theme #5 305
Page 307 and 308:
Key Theme #5 Growth / Monetization
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Japan has led world by 5-10 years i
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ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix
Page 313 and 314:
Mobile Revenue (ex. Data Access) pe
Page 315 and 316:
3G Penetration - …Developed / Eme
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Why Has Japan Led the World in Mobi
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Rich Content / Apps / Services - Ja
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Powerful / Internet-Enabled Handset
Page 323 and 324:
Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan as Proxy for Technology’s R
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Japan mobile monetization models pr
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Japan’s Mobile Online Commerce /
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Mobile Online Commerce - Promising
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Japan - Physical Products Gaining S
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ROW Also Making Inroads into Mobile
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ROW - Branded Mobile Apps Could Dri
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Digital Content (Music / Video / Ap
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Digital Content - Mobile Games / Mu
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Japan - Virtual / Digital Goods on
Page 349 and 350:
China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
Page 351 and 352:
Developer / Application Success on
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Japan Mobile Paid Services 5 Years
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Rakuten Travel - Mobile Gross Hotel
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Mobile Advertising - Personalizatio
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Japan - Mobile Advertising - 24% CA
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Upside to Mobile Search Advertising
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Heavy Search / Display Advertising
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Interactive Video Advertising Revol
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Desktop Internet Monetization Evolu
Page 369 and 370:
…While Premium Content Revenue (U
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At Margin, Advertising + Online Com
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Users Often Pay for Content as Long
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View of Paid vs. Ad-Supported Conte
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Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Out o
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History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeb
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Global Mobile Advertising Scenario
Page 383 and 384:
Global Mobile Online Commerce / Pai
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem -
Page 387 and 388:
Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem Re
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Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shiftin
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Google - Internet Search Innovation
Page 393 and 394:
Amazon.com - Online Shopping Experi
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Some companies can benefit from tec
Page 397 and 398:
How Mobile Internet Revenue May Evo
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Key Theme #6 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Key Theme #6 - Massive Data Growth
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The Carriers’ Capex Conundrum…
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Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier
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Global Mobile Data Trends Imply Ong
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Global Mobile Data Users - 29% CAGR
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Global Mobile Data Users - 55% CAGR
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Company- and Product-level Mobile D
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AT&T = 50x Mobile Data Traffic Incr
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Data = Increasingly Dominating Netw
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European Market Supporting Data and
Page 421 and 422:
Smartphone Data Usage Will Rise wit
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Near Term, Mobile Internet Usage Su
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European Mobile Network Utilization
Page 427 and 428:
As Data Usage Becomes More Importan
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Aggregate Mobile Data Network Suppl
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Network Congestion in High Density
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Total Network Capacity on a Cell Si
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However, As Smartphone Penetration
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Overview of a Mobile Data Network T
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Wireless Capacity - Where Does It L
Page 441 and 442:
Network Improvement Timeline Step A
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Short-Term Network Improvements - H
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Short-term Network Improvements - W
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Wireless Backhaul Capacity Expected
Page 449 and 450:
Mobile Internet Implications for Wi
Page 451 and 452:
Wi-Fi Moves from Carrier Foe to Fri
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Wi-Fi Significantly Cheaper for Car
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Wi-Fi Network Coverage in Home and
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~7,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Access Points at
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Wi-Fi Case Study #2 - Boosting Valu
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Bottom Line = Wi-Fi Offload Will Be
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HSPA + Backhaul Upgrades Should Red
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Long-term Network Improvements - Ne
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Good News = Proprietary Network Opt
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Long-term Network Improvements - Up
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HSPA / LTE Buildout Roadmap - Succe
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LTE = 24x Theoretical Bandwidth of
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39 Operators in 19 Countries Alread
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LTE Introduction Cost Should Be Low
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New Lower Spectrum Allocations, Suc
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Spectral Efficiency ((Bit/S)/Hz), p
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What effect will long-term network
Page 485 and 486:
Raw Network Capacity Improvement Ca
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Underlying Technology Improvements
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Case Study - 2010E Capex Analysis f
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AT&T Plans to Increase Capacity in
Page 493 and 494:
Network Sharing Is Becoming Increas
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In the USA and W. Europe, Carrier V
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Premium Voice + SMS Revenue Share L
Page 499 and 500:
Rapid Consumer / Business Adoption
Page 501 and 502:
VoIP International Long Distance (I
Page 503 and 504:
Mobile Texting Revenue Growth Slowi
Page 505 and 506:
Global Mobile Voice TTM Revenue of
Page 507 and 508:
Mobile Data Pricing Models in Flux
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Flat-Rate Pricing = Necessary for U
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Flat-Rate Wireless Data Plans - Pro
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Flat-Rate Pricing May Also Encourag
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Wireline Broadband Tiered Pricing C
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KDDI Tiered Flat-Rate Pricing Cater
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Bell Canada Combo Plans Bring Tiere
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Base Case USA / W. Europe Carrier O
Page 523 and 524:
Key Scenario Drivers for US Wireles
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USA Wireless Revenue Base Case Scen
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Total ARPU Expected to Decline Slig
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Non-Text Revenue = Key to Data Reve
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W. Europe* Wireless Service Revenue
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Implied W. Europe Wireless Carrier
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Scale, Access to Spectrum and Capit
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…10 Attributes of Winning Wireles
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Scale = Key Competitive Advantage f
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USA Spectrum Holdings - Larger Carr
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Exclusive Devices (such as iPhone)
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But Carrying the iPhone Is Mixed Bl
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Competitive Share Gain Opportunitie
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Scenario: AT&T Loses iPhone Exclusi
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Opportunities for Network Equipment
Page 553 and 554:
Total Wireless Equipment Revenue Ex
Page 555 and 556:
Network Services Is Now ~$80B Addre
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Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by Co
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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Key Theme #7 563
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Key Theme #7 - Compelling Opportuni
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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At Inflection Point, Long-Term EM O
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Opportunities Could Be Significant
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Over Time, Impact of Mobile Interne
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…Caused in Part by Sub-20% Fixed-
Page 579 and 580:
3G / Wireless = ‘Only Choice’ f
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Vibrant Mobile Value-Added Services
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Emerging Asia VAS Revenue Share Alr
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Emerging Market Carriers Adapted to
Page 587 and 588:
Bharti-Airtel = Cost Savings from O
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Compressing Wireless Data Could Red
Page 591 and 592:
Emerging Markets - Some Near-Term 3
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Near-Term 3G Adoption Barriers = Lo
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Low Post-Paid Ratio + Low GDP per C
Page 597 and 598:
High Monthly Data Plan Costs = Near
Page 599 and 600:
Emerging Markets Regional Analysis
Page 601 and 602:
Regional Analysis / Forecast - Chin
Page 603 and 604:
Chinese Consumers Are Ready for 3G
Page 605 and 606:
3G Creates New Battle Ground for Ch
Page 607 and 608:
iPhone Costs Too High for Majority
Page 609 and 610:
Key Scenario Drivers for China Wire
Page 611 and 612:
China Wireless Revenue Base Case Sc
Page 613 and 614:
Data ARPU Growth Expected to Partia
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India - Near-term Barriers to 3G Ad
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India - Upcoming Auction to Bring 3
Page 619 and 620:
Base Case: Winning 3G Spectrum Does
Page 621 and 622:
Capex Required for 3G Network Could
Page 623 and 624:
Other Emerging Asia - Low Fixed-Lin
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Philippines - Mobile Overtook Fixed
Page 627 and 628:
Indonesia - Mobile Could Accelerate
Page 629 and 630:
WiMAX in Emerging Asia - Still in N
Page 631 and 632:
EEMEA - Carriers Leverage Cost-Effe
Page 633 and 634:
Africa - Mobile Broadband Prolifera
Page 635 and 636:
Middle East + Africa Have the Lowes
Page 637 and 638:
Key Scenario Drivers for Russia Wir
Page 639 and 640:
Key Theme #8 639
Page 641 and 642:
Key Theme #8 - Regulators Can Help
Page 643 and 644:
Net Neutrality - Key to Decentraliz
Page 645 and 646:
In the US, FCC Has Issued a “Noti
Page 647 and 648:
Both Sides of Net Neutrality Debate
Page 649 and 650:
What Could Regulators Do to Acceler
Page 651 and 652:
Lower Mobile Data Roaming Fees = En
Page 653 and 654:
“Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY) P
Page 655 and 656:
3G Licenses Reshape China’s Compe
Page 657 and 658:
USA Recent Developments - USA F
Page 659 and 660:
Recent Developments - China / India
Page 661 and 662:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Morgan S
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Within t
Page 665 and 666:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Analyst
Page 667 and 668:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Stock Pr
Page 669 and 670:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Importan
Page 671:
Disclosure Section (cont.) MTN does
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