The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

Emerging Market Mobile Data Revenue Assumptions in
2012E When 3G Users Hit Inflection Point
Base Case ARPU Assumption
$2.00 monthly data ARPU (20% of total ARPU*)
1.1B Emerging Market 3G subscribers
$2.2B monthly mobile data revenue
VAS Upside Case ARPU Assumption
$2.50 monthly data ARPU (25% of total ARPU)
$2.00 base case ARPU + $0.50 incremental ARPU from Value
Added Services such as mobile paper / mobile TV…)
1.1B Emerging Market 3G subscribers
$2.7B monthly mobile data revenue
Bull Case ARPU Assumption
$3.00 monthly data ARPU (30% of total ARPU)
$2.50 VAS upside case ARPU + $0.50 incremental ARPU from
notebook mobile broadband usage replacing desktop dial-up /
broadband usage)
1.1B Emerging Market 3G subscribers
$3.2B monthly mobile data revenue
Note: 2012E Total ARPU estimate of $10 based on current EM ARPU of roughly $10, 20% data revenue share based on current
average data revenue share for large-scale carriers (conservative / in-line given China Mobile’s 1H09 monthly ARPU of ~$10.50 /
23% data revenue share). VAS incremental ARPU of $0.50 are our estimates based on the incremental revenue carriers could
generate over the next four years from mobile market / mobile TV / other new offerings. Mobile broadband / data card incremental 572
ARPU based on our estimates. Source: ITU, Morgan Stanley Research.