The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

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Closed App Store Model Has Challenged iPhone Developers / Users – Application Rejections / Limitations; Opportunity for Android App Name Function Censor / Date Rejection / Limitation Official (Speculated) Reasoning Google Voice Universal phone number / free SMS / low-cost VoIP call Apple (7/09) Official app on hold for review; all 3rd party apps using Google Voice services rejected Duplicating iPhone’s native dialer / contact book / SMS function + uploading user contact book to Google server iTweetReply Twitter client Apple (7/09) Rejected UI elements look the same as native iPhone SMS app, causing confusion Sling Player Streams TV signal to PC / mobile terminals AT&T (5/09) Limited to Wi-Fi only Redirecting TV signal to a personal computer specifically prohibited under terms of service (too much stress to AT&T’s overburdened 3G network) Skype Free VoIP calls / IM to Skype users; low-cost VoIP calls to phones Various Carriers* (3/09) Limited to Wi-Fi only for SkypeOut calls; Banned from 3G & carrierowned Wi-Fi networks by T- Mobile Germany VoIP user experience over 3G subpar 3G network is shared utility NCAA March Madness Streams live video to mobile AT&T (3/09) Live video streaming limited to Wi-Fi only None (3G network could not handle capacity demand) Google Latitude Share location with friends on Google Maps Apple (CH1:09) Local app rejected; Re-launched as web app Causing confusion with native iPhone Maps app Podcaster Browse / listen to podcasts Apple (9/08) Rejected Duplicating iTunes function Note: AT&T has lifted restriction on VoIP over 3G in 10/09. Source: Google Mobile Blog, Skype, Engadget, PC World, Morgan Stanley Research. 182
In Technology, Products with Most / Best Apps Usually Win – In Mobile, Apple is Clear Leader and Newcomer Android Has Quickly Surpassed the Old Guard iPhone App Store Android App Market Blackberry App World Windows Mobile Marketplace Palm App Catalog Nokia Ovi Store Samsung Mobile Applications LG Application Store Sony Ericsson Playnow Arena Verizon Vcast App Store Launch Date 7/08 10/08 4/09 CH2:09E 6/09 5/09 1/09 7/09 CQ4:09E CQ4:09E Number of Apps Apps Downloaded 100K+ 15K 3.5K -- 525 6K 3.7K 1.4K 3.7K -- 2B+ 40MM -- -- 1MM 50MM -- -- -- -- Billing System iTunes Google Checkout / Carrier PayPal Carrier / Credit Card Credit Card Carrier / Credit Card Credit Card / PayPal Carrier / Credit Card Carrier / Credit Card Carrier / Credit Card Developer Share 70% 70% 80% 70% 70% 70% 70% 80% -- 70% Developer Fee $99 One Time $25 One Time $200 One Time $99 One Time $99 One Time Free Free -- Free -- Notable Restrictions Apple / Carrier Demands Carrier Demands Carrier Demands Carrier Demands Non-native SDK Carrier Demands Potential compatability Potential compatability Potential compatability Potential compatability Client presence Phone + iTunes Phone Only Phone Only Phone Only Phone Only Phone + Web Web Only Phone + Web Phone + Web Phone + Web Note: Developer share = percentage of revenue that accrues to developer vs. app store owner. Source: Gizmodo, Distimo (12/09 app store overview), jkontherun.com, Morgan Stanley Research. 183
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The Mobile Internet Report Key Them
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What You are Reading - The Mobile I
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Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Wealt
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes… 3)
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes 6) Ma
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Key Theme #1 11
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Key Theme #1 - Wealth Creation / De
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Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Ma
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Winners of Each New Cycle Often Cre
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NCR Won Big in Mainframe Era, DEC W
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Compaq + Microsoft Won Big in PC Er
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Net, New Computing Cycles Create /
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New Computing Cycle Characteristics
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12,000,000 Mobile Internet Traffic
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Pace of company change related to m
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Rapid Pace of Corporate M&A Related
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Technology Companies Created > Weal
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Top Internet-Related Tech Wealth Cr
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We Know What Happened Over Past 15
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Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Ti
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2009 Global Top 30 TMT Companies by
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Key Theme #2 43
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Key Theme #2 - Mobile Ramping Faste
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = Fastest new
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Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop In
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Tech Cycles Tend to Last Ten Years
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User-Interface Revolutions (Overlai
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Broad base of IP-based mobile usage
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Wireless Network Primer GPS - Glob
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Increasingly, Mobile Phone Usage is
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Mobile Devices + Infrastructure Ena
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Cloud-Based Content / App Services
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Machine to Machine (M2M) Takes on N
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Rapid growth in number / type of mo
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GPS proliferation (and related loca
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GPS = 421MM Chipsets Sold in 2008E
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WIRED Magazine - “Inside the GPS
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3G proliferation is a big deal. 75
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3G = Key to Enabling Internet Usage
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3G Penetration Inflection Points Va
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3G Growth Still Concentrated in Dev
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USA Likely to Remain Most Dynamic 3
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Wi-Fi proliferation is a big deal.
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Wi-Fi’s High Speed + Wide Availab
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100,000 Wi-Fi Households (USA) = 20
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Bluetooth proliferation is a big de
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Bluetooth = 1.3B Chipsets Sold in 2
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What Is a ‘Smartphone’ We defi
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Smartphone of 2009 = As Powerful as
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Mobile Internet - Leveraging the Ev
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Notebook PC + Smartphone Shipments
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Impressive / Rapid Growing Smartpho
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Consumer Internet-Enabled Devices -
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Significant Growth in 3G + Smartpho
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Unified Communication (UC) Voice (~
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If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier
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VoIP = Material Impact on Tradition
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Google Voice Putting User in Contro
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Social Networking - Global Phenomen
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Facebook = Garnering Rising Share o
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Powerful Devices (like iPhone) + Ne
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Video = High Usage + High Bandwidth
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Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop
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Key Theme #3 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation
Page 131 and 132: Apple’s Impressive Share Likely M
Page 133 and 134: iTunes App Store = Shot Heard ‘Ro
Page 135 and 136: iTunes App Store = The Killer Mobil
Page 137 and 138: Mobile App Definition A mobile appl
Page 139 and 140: Users / Developers / Apple = Likely
Page 141 and 142: Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B+ App Dow
Page 143 and 144: Most Downloaded Free iPhone Apps -
Page 145 and 146: iPhone Apps for Nearly Everyone - L
Page 147 and 148: Mobile Developer Mind Share / Focus
Page 149 and 150: Powerful mobile device usage trends
Page 151 and 152: iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Int
Page 153 and 154: Mobile Internet Operating System Co
Page 155 and 156: Handset Device Price / Volume Pyram
Page 157 and 158: High-End Quickly Becomes Low-End -
Page 159 and 160: iPhone 3G BOM = 33% Lower than iPho
Page 161 and 162: Apple iTunes App Revenue = Could Su
Page 163 and 164: Apple leads race for handset profit
Page 165 and 166: Apple + RIM = 13% Share of Handset
Page 167 and 168: Apple / RIM - Smartphone Leaders Co
Page 169 and 170: PC Platform Leaders (Microsoft + In
Page 171 and 172: Apple iPhone Base Case + Upside Cas
Page 173 and 174: Scenarios for Apple iPhone Market S
Page 175 and 176: The Apple Tablet Potential Should N
Page 177 and 178: Apple - Potential Long-Term Challen
Page 179 and 180: Google Android’s Open + Low Cost
Page 181: Apple may believe its platform mana
Page 185 and 186: Multitudes of Android Phones - Tens
Page 187 and 188: Android’s Conundrum Open-Source S
Page 189 and 190: Next Generation Android Smartphones
Page 191 and 192: Apple’s Potential Long-Term Chall
Page 193 and 194: Native Apps Benefits Challenges For
Page 195 and 196: Native Apps Should Always Have Perf
Page 197 and 198: Apple = Likely Well Positioned to N
Page 199 and 200: Do Incumbents Have Apple-Like Poten
Page 201 and 202: Smartphones Not Relevant in Emergin
Page 203 and 204: Retail Sales (Not Carrier Sales) -
Page 205 and 206: Apple’s Success Has Been Proven i
Page 207 and 208: Buddhist Phone White-Box “Shanzha
Page 209 and 210: Don’t Expect Apple to Stand Still
Page 211 and 212: Carrier Exclusivity Limits Apple’
Page 213 and 214: iPhone Price Cut to $99 Would Elimi
Page 215 and 216: Ending Carrier Exclusivity = Could
Page 217 and 218: Battery Technology Constraining iPh
Page 219 and 220: Implications of New Horizontal Busi
Page 221 and 222: Apple’s Vertical Handset Model =
Page 223 and 224: Apple iPhone + iTouch = On Track to
Page 225 and 226: Apple iTouch - Key Companion to iPh
Page 227 and 228: RIM’s Vertical Handset Model = Pr
Page 229 and 230: Threats from RIM’s Vertical Integ
Page 231 and 232: Horizontal Handset Model Finally Em
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Opportunities / Benefits from Horiz
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Key Theme #4 235
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Key Theme #4 - Game-Changing Commun
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Facebook and Apple iPhone / iTouch
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Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch =
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Social Networks - Underpinning of I
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Social Networking Driving Consumer
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Social Networks - Gaining Material
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Facebook Platform - A Hub for Commu
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Facebook - Next Generation Portal f
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Facebook - Largest Share Gainer of
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Facebook / Twitter Replacing Tradit
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Communication on Twitter Not Only C
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Facebook Users = Heavy Content Crea
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Top 10 Facebook Applications - Game
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Facebook = A Platform for Advertise
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Facebook - Opportunity for Advertis
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Facebook - Advertiser / Vendor Succ
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Social Networks in General = Platfo
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LinkedIn - Social Network for Profe
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Like Twitter and Facebook, Foursqua
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Advertising Follows Eyeballs - Glob
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Facebook - Vibrant Developer / Appl
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Developer / Application Success on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Mobile = Future of Social Networks
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Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~
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Facebook Symbiotic with Mobile - Sh
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Carriers’ ‘Walled Gardens’ =
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Apple Unshackled Developers + Consu
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Mobile Commerce = Accelerator for O
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15 Years for Online to Reach 4% of
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Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce - W
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Deep Discounts - Invitation-Only Ti
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Traditional Retailers Using Pings t
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Key Theme #5 305
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Key Theme #5 Growth / Monetization
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Japan has led world by 5-10 years i
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ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix
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Mobile Revenue (ex. Data Access) pe
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3G Penetration - …Developed / Eme
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Why Has Japan Led the World in Mobi
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Rich Content / Apps / Services - Ja
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Powerful / Internet-Enabled Handset
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan as Proxy for Technology’s R
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Japan mobile monetization models pr
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Japan’s Mobile Online Commerce /
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Mobile Online Commerce - Promising
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Japan - Physical Products Gaining S
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ROW Also Making Inroads into Mobile
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ROW - Branded Mobile Apps Could Dri
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Digital Content (Music / Video / Ap
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Digital Content - Mobile Games / Mu
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Japan - Virtual / Digital Goods on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Developer / Application Success on
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Japan Mobile Paid Services 5 Years
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Rakuten Travel - Mobile Gross Hotel
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Mobile Advertising - Personalizatio
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Japan - Mobile Advertising - 24% CA
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Upside to Mobile Search Advertising
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Heavy Search / Display Advertising
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Interactive Video Advertising Revol
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Desktop Internet Monetization Evolu
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…While Premium Content Revenue (U
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At Margin, Advertising + Online Com
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Users Often Pay for Content as Long
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View of Paid vs. Ad-Supported Conte
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Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Out o
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History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeb
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Global Mobile Advertising Scenario
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Global Mobile Online Commerce / Pai
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem -
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem Re
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Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shiftin
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Google - Internet Search Innovation
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Amazon.com - Online Shopping Experi
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Some companies can benefit from tec
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How Mobile Internet Revenue May Evo
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Key Theme #6 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Key Theme #6 - Massive Data Growth
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The Carriers’ Capex Conundrum…
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Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier
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Global Mobile Data Trends Imply Ong
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Global Mobile Data Users - 29% CAGR
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Global Mobile Data Users - 55% CAGR
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Company- and Product-level Mobile D
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AT&T = 50x Mobile Data Traffic Incr
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Data = Increasingly Dominating Netw
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European Market Supporting Data and
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Smartphone Data Usage Will Rise wit
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Near Term, Mobile Internet Usage Su
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European Mobile Network Utilization
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As Data Usage Becomes More Importan
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Aggregate Mobile Data Network Suppl
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Network Congestion in High Density
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Total Network Capacity on a Cell Si
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However, As Smartphone Penetration
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Overview of a Mobile Data Network T
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Wireless Capacity - Where Does It L
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Network Improvement Timeline Step A
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Short-Term Network Improvements - H
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Short-term Network Improvements - W
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Wireless Backhaul Capacity Expected
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Mobile Internet Implications for Wi
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Wi-Fi Moves from Carrier Foe to Fri
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Wi-Fi Significantly Cheaper for Car
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Wi-Fi Network Coverage in Home and
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~7,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Access Points at
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Wi-Fi Case Study #2 - Boosting Valu
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Bottom Line = Wi-Fi Offload Will Be
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HSPA + Backhaul Upgrades Should Red
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Long-term Network Improvements - Ne
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Good News = Proprietary Network Opt
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Long-term Network Improvements - Up
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HSPA / LTE Buildout Roadmap - Succe
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LTE = 24x Theoretical Bandwidth of
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39 Operators in 19 Countries Alread
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LTE Introduction Cost Should Be Low
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New Lower Spectrum Allocations, Suc
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Spectral Efficiency ((Bit/S)/Hz), p
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What effect will long-term network
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Raw Network Capacity Improvement Ca
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Underlying Technology Improvements
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Case Study - 2010E Capex Analysis f
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AT&T Plans to Increase Capacity in
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Network Sharing Is Becoming Increas
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In the USA and W. Europe, Carrier V
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Premium Voice + SMS Revenue Share L
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Rapid Consumer / Business Adoption
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VoIP International Long Distance (I
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Mobile Texting Revenue Growth Slowi
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Global Mobile Voice TTM Revenue of
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Mobile Data Pricing Models in Flux
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Flat-Rate Pricing = Necessary for U
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Flat-Rate Wireless Data Plans - Pro
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Flat-Rate Pricing May Also Encourag
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Wireline Broadband Tiered Pricing C
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KDDI Tiered Flat-Rate Pricing Cater
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Bell Canada Combo Plans Bring Tiere
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Base Case USA / W. Europe Carrier O
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Key Scenario Drivers for US Wireles
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USA Wireless Revenue Base Case Scen
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Total ARPU Expected to Decline Slig
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Non-Text Revenue = Key to Data Reve
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W. Europe* Wireless Service Revenue
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Implied W. Europe Wireless Carrier
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Scale, Access to Spectrum and Capit
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…10 Attributes of Winning Wireles
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Scale = Key Competitive Advantage f
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USA Spectrum Holdings - Larger Carr
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Exclusive Devices (such as iPhone)
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But Carrying the iPhone Is Mixed Bl
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Competitive Share Gain Opportunitie
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Scenario: AT&T Loses iPhone Exclusi
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Opportunities for Network Equipment
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Total Wireless Equipment Revenue Ex
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Network Services Is Now ~$80B Addre
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Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by Co
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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Key Theme #7 563
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Key Theme #7 - Compelling Opportuni
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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At Inflection Point, Long-Term EM O
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Opportunities Could Be Significant
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Over Time, Impact of Mobile Interne
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…Caused in Part by Sub-20% Fixed-
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3G / Wireless = ‘Only Choice’ f
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Vibrant Mobile Value-Added Services
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Emerging Asia VAS Revenue Share Alr
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Emerging Market Carriers Adapted to
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Bharti-Airtel = Cost Savings from O
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Compressing Wireless Data Could Red
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Emerging Markets - Some Near-Term 3
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Near-Term 3G Adoption Barriers = Lo
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Low Post-Paid Ratio + Low GDP per C
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High Monthly Data Plan Costs = Near
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Emerging Markets Regional Analysis
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Regional Analysis / Forecast - Chin
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Chinese Consumers Are Ready for 3G
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3G Creates New Battle Ground for Ch
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iPhone Costs Too High for Majority
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Key Scenario Drivers for China Wire
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China Wireless Revenue Base Case Sc
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Data ARPU Growth Expected to Partia
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India - Near-term Barriers to 3G Ad
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India - Upcoming Auction to Bring 3
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Base Case: Winning 3G Spectrum Does
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Capex Required for 3G Network Could
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Other Emerging Asia - Low Fixed-Lin
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Philippines - Mobile Overtook Fixed
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Indonesia - Mobile Could Accelerate
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WiMAX in Emerging Asia - Still in N
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EEMEA - Carriers Leverage Cost-Effe
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Africa - Mobile Broadband Prolifera
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Middle East + Africa Have the Lowes
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Key Scenario Drivers for Russia Wir
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Key Theme #8 639
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Key Theme #8 - Regulators Can Help
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Net Neutrality - Key to Decentraliz
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In the US, FCC Has Issued a “Noti
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Both Sides of Net Neutrality Debate
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What Could Regulators Do to Acceler
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Lower Mobile Data Roaming Fees = En
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“Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY) P
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3G Licenses Reshape China’s Compe
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USA Recent Developments - USA F
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Recent Developments - China / India
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Morgan S
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Within t
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Analyst
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Stock Pr
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Disclosure Section (cont.) Importan
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Disclosure Section (cont.) MTN does
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