The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix in 2008 =
Japan’s in 2000
Why Relevant
Revenue mix among data access / online commerce / paid services / advertising reflects
advanced stages of mobile ecosystem development in Japan – the most developed
market for mobile Internet in the world. We believe this market serves as a proxy for
ROW and illustrates how the mobile Internet in ROW will likely develop over next 5 years
given how 3G penetration / handset capability are evolving.
What’s Changed
Japan’s mobile online commerce / paid services / advertising industries have
consistently gained relative mobile ecosystem revenue share (34% of revenue in 2008E
vs. 14% in 2000), while at margin, carriers have lost relative share (66% of total revenue
vs. 86% in 2000) while still growing absolute revenue at 10% CAGR from 2003-2008E.
What Does It Mean for rest of world (ROW)
ROW mobile revenue mix in 2008E mirrored Japan’s mix in 2000 when carriers’ data
access fees dominated mobile Internet ecosystem revenue. We believe online commerce
/ paid services / advertising developers and vendors in ROW will gain material revenue
share vs. carriers over the next five-plus years.
Note: Mobile online commerce includes retail sales of physical goods and digital / virtual goods such as ringtones /
wallpapers / avatars; Source: Nema Naoshi / Hironori Tanaka for Japan data, Morgan Stanley Research.
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