The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

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Carriers’ Perspective – Network Management Crucial for the Greater Good 50x Data Growth Over Past 3 Years Net neutrality encourages excessive data use – In its response to the FCC’s net neutrality efforts, AT&T highlighted data growth of +4,932% over the past three years to show the strain its network is absorbing. Net neutrality would contribute to this growth by giving users access to more data-heavy applications, thus making AT&T’s network more constrained. Less than 3% of Users Consume 40% of Data Small share of heavy data users consume a large share of the network – The top 3% of AT&T smartphone users account for 40% of all smartphone data / consume 13x as much data as average smartphone customers / represent less than 1% of AT&T’s total postpaid subscriber base. 0.0004% Wireless Bandwidth vs. Fiber Speed / capacity on wireless networks makes it difficult to handle this increase in traffic – Wireless capacity is constrained by limited spectrum / relatively low data speeds. Even next generation networks have significantly lower throughput speeds than fixed broadband (LTE theoretical speed = ~100 Mbps* vs. Fiber theoretical speed = ~25MM Mbps). As a result, a few heavy data users can crowd out all of the other users on the network. 648 * LTE speed assumes at least 2X10MHz. Source: AT&T, CTIA , Morgan Stanley Research.
What Could Regulators Do to Accelerate Adoption of Mobile Internet Enforce network neutrality by Attaching mandatory ‘open’ clause to future wireless spectrum auctions / allowing usage of unlicensed spectrums Bringing Carterfone doctrine to the mobile industry / eliminating discriminatory services for content + applications providers / investigating exclusive device agreements Requiring more detailed disclosure from carriers on pricing plans / Term of Usage limits Lower entry barriers in the wireless industry by Eliminating / subsidizing spectrum costs Eliminating / subsidizing wireless carrier capex spending (via utility tax) Lowering mobile termination / roaming costs Opening carrier networks to virtual operators 649
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The Mobile Internet Report Key Them
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What You are Reading - The Mobile I
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Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Wealt
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes… 3)
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…Key Mobile Internet Themes 6) Ma
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Key Theme #1 11
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Key Theme #1 - Wealth Creation / De
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Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Ma
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Winners of Each New Cycle Often Cre
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NCR Won Big in Mainframe Era, DEC W
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Compaq + Microsoft Won Big in PC Er
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Net, New Computing Cycles Create /
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New Computing Cycle Characteristics
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12,000,000 Mobile Internet Traffic
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Pace of company change related to m
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Rapid Pace of Corporate M&A Related
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Technology Companies Created > Weal
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Top Internet-Related Tech Wealth Cr
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We Know What Happened Over Past 15
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Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Ti
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2009 Global Top 30 TMT Companies by
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Key Theme #2 43
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Key Theme #2 - Mobile Ramping Faste
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = Fastest new
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Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop In
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Tech Cycles Tend to Last Ten Years
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User-Interface Revolutions (Overlai
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Broad base of IP-based mobile usage
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Wireless Network Primer GPS - Glob
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Increasingly, Mobile Phone Usage is
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Mobile Devices + Infrastructure Ena
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Cloud-Based Content / App Services
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Machine to Machine (M2M) Takes on N
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Rapid growth in number / type of mo
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GPS proliferation (and related loca
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GPS = 421MM Chipsets Sold in 2008E
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WIRED Magazine - “Inside the GPS
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3G proliferation is a big deal. 75
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3G = Key to Enabling Internet Usage
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3G Penetration Inflection Points Va
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3G Growth Still Concentrated in Dev
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USA Likely to Remain Most Dynamic 3
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Wi-Fi proliferation is a big deal.
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Wi-Fi’s High Speed + Wide Availab
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100,000 Wi-Fi Households (USA) = 20
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Bluetooth proliferation is a big de
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Bluetooth = 1.3B Chipsets Sold in 2
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What Is a ‘Smartphone’ We defi
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Smartphone of 2009 = As Powerful as
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Mobile Internet - Leveraging the Ev
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Notebook PC + Smartphone Shipments
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Impressive / Rapid Growing Smartpho
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Consumer Internet-Enabled Devices -
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Significant Growth in 3G + Smartpho
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Unified Communication (UC) Voice (~
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If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier
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VoIP = Material Impact on Tradition
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Google Voice Putting User in Contro
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Social Networking - Global Phenomen
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Facebook = Garnering Rising Share o
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Powerful Devices (like iPhone) + Ne
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Video = High Usage + High Bandwidth
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Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop
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Key Theme #3 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation
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Apple’s Impressive Share Likely M
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iTunes App Store = Shot Heard ‘Ro
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iTunes App Store = The Killer Mobil
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Mobile App Definition A mobile appl
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Users / Developers / Apple = Likely
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Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B+ App Dow
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Most Downloaded Free iPhone Apps -
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iPhone Apps for Nearly Everyone - L
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Mobile Developer Mind Share / Focus
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Powerful mobile device usage trends
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iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Int
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Mobile Internet Operating System Co
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Handset Device Price / Volume Pyram
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High-End Quickly Becomes Low-End -
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iPhone 3G BOM = 33% Lower than iPho
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Apple iTunes App Revenue = Could Su
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Apple leads race for handset profit
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Apple + RIM = 13% Share of Handset
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Apple / RIM - Smartphone Leaders Co
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PC Platform Leaders (Microsoft + In
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Apple iPhone Base Case + Upside Cas
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Scenarios for Apple iPhone Market S
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The Apple Tablet Potential Should N
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Apple - Potential Long-Term Challen
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Google Android’s Open + Low Cost
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Apple may believe its platform mana
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In Technology, Products with Most /
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Multitudes of Android Phones - Tens
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Android’s Conundrum Open-Source S
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Next Generation Android Smartphones
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Apple’s Potential Long-Term Chall
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Native Apps Benefits Challenges For
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Native Apps Should Always Have Perf
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Apple = Likely Well Positioned to N
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Do Incumbents Have Apple-Like Poten
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Smartphones Not Relevant in Emergin
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Retail Sales (Not Carrier Sales) -
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Apple’s Success Has Been Proven i
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Buddhist Phone White-Box “Shanzha
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Don’t Expect Apple to Stand Still
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Carrier Exclusivity Limits Apple’
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iPhone Price Cut to $99 Would Elimi
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Ending Carrier Exclusivity = Could
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Battery Technology Constraining iPh
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Implications of New Horizontal Busi
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Apple’s Vertical Handset Model =
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Apple iPhone + iTouch = On Track to
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Apple iTouch - Key Companion to iPh
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RIM’s Vertical Handset Model = Pr
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Threats from RIM’s Vertical Integ
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Horizontal Handset Model Finally Em
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Opportunities / Benefits from Horiz
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Key Theme #4 235
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Key Theme #4 - Game-Changing Commun
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Facebook and Apple iPhone / iTouch
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Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch =
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Social Networks - Underpinning of I
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Social Networking Driving Consumer
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Social Networks - Gaining Material
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Facebook Platform - A Hub for Commu
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Facebook - Next Generation Portal f
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Facebook - Largest Share Gainer of
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Facebook / Twitter Replacing Tradit
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Communication on Twitter Not Only C
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Facebook Users = Heavy Content Crea
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Top 10 Facebook Applications - Game
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Facebook = A Platform for Advertise
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Facebook - Opportunity for Advertis
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Facebook - Advertiser / Vendor Succ
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Social Networks in General = Platfo
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LinkedIn - Social Network for Profe
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Like Twitter and Facebook, Foursqua
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Advertising Follows Eyeballs - Glob
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Facebook - Vibrant Developer / Appl
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Developer / Application Success on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Mobile = Future of Social Networks
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Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~
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Facebook Symbiotic with Mobile - Sh
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Carriers’ ‘Walled Gardens’ =
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Apple Unshackled Developers + Consu
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Mobile Commerce = Accelerator for O
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15 Years for Online to Reach 4% of
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Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce - W
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Deep Discounts - Invitation-Only Ti
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Traditional Retailers Using Pings t
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Key Theme #5 305
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Key Theme #5 Growth / Monetization
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Japan has led world by 5-10 years i
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ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix
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Mobile Revenue (ex. Data Access) pe
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3G Penetration - …Developed / Eme
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Why Has Japan Led the World in Mobi
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Rich Content / Apps / Services - Ja
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Powerful / Internet-Enabled Handset
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
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Japan as Proxy for Technology’s R
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Japan mobile monetization models pr
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Japan’s Mobile Online Commerce /
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Mobile Online Commerce - Promising
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Japan - Physical Products Gaining S
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ROW Also Making Inroads into Mobile
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ROW - Branded Mobile Apps Could Dri
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Digital Content (Music / Video / Ap
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Digital Content - Mobile Games / Mu
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Tencent Business Model Overview - H
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Japan - Virtual / Digital Goods on
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China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
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Developer / Application Success on
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Japan Mobile Paid Services 5 Years
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Rakuten Travel - Mobile Gross Hotel
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Mobile Advertising - Personalizatio
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Japan - Mobile Advertising - 24% CA
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Upside to Mobile Search Advertising
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Heavy Search / Display Advertising
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Interactive Video Advertising Revol
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Desktop Internet Monetization Evolu
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…While Premium Content Revenue (U
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At Margin, Advertising + Online Com
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Users Often Pay for Content as Long
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View of Paid vs. Ad-Supported Conte
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Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Out o
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History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeb
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Global Mobile Advertising Scenario
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Global Mobile Online Commerce / Pai
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem -
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Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem Re
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Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shiftin
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Google - Internet Search Innovation
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Amazon.com - Online Shopping Experi
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Some companies can benefit from tec
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How Mobile Internet Revenue May Evo
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Key Theme #6 1) Wealth Creation / D
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Key Theme #6 - Massive Data Growth
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The Carriers’ Capex Conundrum…
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Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier
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Global Mobile Data Trends Imply Ong
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Global Mobile Data Users - 29% CAGR
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Global Mobile Data Users - 55% CAGR
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Company- and Product-level Mobile D
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AT&T = 50x Mobile Data Traffic Incr
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Data = Increasingly Dominating Netw
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European Market Supporting Data and
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Smartphone Data Usage Will Rise wit
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Near Term, Mobile Internet Usage Su
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European Mobile Network Utilization
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As Data Usage Becomes More Importan
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Aggregate Mobile Data Network Suppl
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Network Congestion in High Density
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Total Network Capacity on a Cell Si
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However, As Smartphone Penetration
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Overview of a Mobile Data Network T
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Wireless Capacity - Where Does It L
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Network Improvement Timeline Step A
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Short-Term Network Improvements - H
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Short-term Network Improvements - W
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Wireless Backhaul Capacity Expected
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Mobile Internet Implications for Wi
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Wi-Fi Moves from Carrier Foe to Fri
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Wi-Fi Significantly Cheaper for Car
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Wi-Fi Network Coverage in Home and
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~7,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Access Points at
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Wi-Fi Case Study #2 - Boosting Valu
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Bottom Line = Wi-Fi Offload Will Be
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HSPA + Backhaul Upgrades Should Red
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Long-term Network Improvements - Ne
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Good News = Proprietary Network Opt
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Long-term Network Improvements - Up
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HSPA / LTE Buildout Roadmap - Succe
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LTE = 24x Theoretical Bandwidth of
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39 Operators in 19 Countries Alread
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LTE Introduction Cost Should Be Low
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New Lower Spectrum Allocations, Suc
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Spectral Efficiency ((Bit/S)/Hz), p
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What effect will long-term network
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Raw Network Capacity Improvement Ca
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Underlying Technology Improvements
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Case Study - 2010E Capex Analysis f
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AT&T Plans to Increase Capacity in
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Network Sharing Is Becoming Increas
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In the USA and W. Europe, Carrier V
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Premium Voice + SMS Revenue Share L
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Rapid Consumer / Business Adoption
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VoIP International Long Distance (I
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Mobile Texting Revenue Growth Slowi
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Global Mobile Voice TTM Revenue of
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Mobile Data Pricing Models in Flux
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Flat-Rate Pricing = Necessary for U
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Flat-Rate Wireless Data Plans - Pro
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Flat-Rate Pricing May Also Encourag
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Wireline Broadband Tiered Pricing C
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KDDI Tiered Flat-Rate Pricing Cater
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Bell Canada Combo Plans Bring Tiere
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Base Case USA / W. Europe Carrier O
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Key Scenario Drivers for US Wireles
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USA Wireless Revenue Base Case Scen
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Total ARPU Expected to Decline Slig
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Non-Text Revenue = Key to Data Reve
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W. Europe* Wireless Service Revenue
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Implied W. Europe Wireless Carrier
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Scale, Access to Spectrum and Capit
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…10 Attributes of Winning Wireles
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Scale = Key Competitive Advantage f
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USA Spectrum Holdings - Larger Carr
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Exclusive Devices (such as iPhone)
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But Carrying the iPhone Is Mixed Bl
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Competitive Share Gain Opportunitie
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Scenario: AT&T Loses iPhone Exclusi
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Opportunities for Network Equipment
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Total Wireless Equipment Revenue Ex
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Network Services Is Now ~$80B Addre
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Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by Co
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
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Key Theme #7 563
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Key Theme #7 - Compelling Opportuni
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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Emerging Markets = Significant Long
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At Inflection Point, Long-Term EM O
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Opportunities Could Be Significant
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Over Time, Impact of Mobile Interne
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…Caused in Part by Sub-20% Fixed-
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3G / Wireless = ‘Only Choice’ f
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Vibrant Mobile Value-Added Services
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Emerging Asia VAS Revenue Share Alr
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Emerging Market Carriers Adapted to
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Bharti-Airtel = Cost Savings from O
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Compressing Wireless Data Could Red
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Emerging Markets - Some Near-Term 3
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Near-Term 3G Adoption Barriers = Lo
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Low Post-Paid Ratio + Low GDP per C
Page 597 and 598: High Monthly Data Plan Costs = Near
Page 599 and 600: Emerging Markets Regional Analysis
Page 601 and 602: Regional Analysis / Forecast - Chin
Page 603 and 604: Chinese Consumers Are Ready for 3G
Page 605 and 606: 3G Creates New Battle Ground for Ch
Page 607 and 608: iPhone Costs Too High for Majority
Page 609 and 610: Key Scenario Drivers for China Wire
Page 611 and 612: China Wireless Revenue Base Case Sc
Page 613 and 614: Data ARPU Growth Expected to Partia
Page 615 and 616: India - Near-term Barriers to 3G Ad
Page 617 and 618: India - Upcoming Auction to Bring 3
Page 619 and 620: Base Case: Winning 3G Spectrum Does
Page 621 and 622: Capex Required for 3G Network Could
Page 623 and 624: Other Emerging Asia - Low Fixed-Lin
Page 625 and 626: Philippines - Mobile Overtook Fixed
Page 627 and 628: Indonesia - Mobile Could Accelerate
Page 629 and 630: WiMAX in Emerging Asia - Still in N
Page 631 and 632: EEMEA - Carriers Leverage Cost-Effe
Page 633 and 634: Africa - Mobile Broadband Prolifera
Page 635 and 636: Middle East + Africa Have the Lowes
Page 637 and 638: Key Scenario Drivers for Russia Wir
Page 639 and 640: Key Theme #8 639
Page 641 and 642: Key Theme #8 - Regulators Can Help
Page 643 and 644: Net Neutrality - Key to Decentraliz
Page 645 and 646: In the US, FCC Has Issued a “Noti
Page 647: Both Sides of Net Neutrality Debate
Page 651 and 652: Lower Mobile Data Roaming Fees = En
Page 653 and 654: “Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY) P
Page 655 and 656: 3G Licenses Reshape China’s Compe
Page 657 and 658: USA Recent Developments - USA F
Page 659 and 660: Recent Developments - China / India
Page 661 and 662: Disclosure Section (cont.) Morgan S
Page 663 and 664: Disclosure Section (cont.) Within t
Page 665 and 666: Disclosure Section (cont.) Analyst
Page 667 and 668: Disclosure Section (cont.) Stock Pr
Page 669 and 670: Disclosure Section (cont.) Importan
Page 671: Disclosure Section (cont.) MTN does
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