The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Japan Provides a Roadmap for Mobile Internet Monetization – In ROW, Apple’s Driving Bus, for Now Mobile Online Commerce – 13% of Japan’s online commerce revenue ($9B, +18% Y/Y) derived from mobile in 2008 vs. ~1% in USA; 8% of Japan’s total retail commerce derived from online. 18% of Rakuten’s online commerce business derived from mobile in CQ1:09, rising from 3% in CQ1:04. With $1B in 2009E online commerce revenue, Rakuten is Japan’s largest online commerce company. We believe
Japan’s Mobile Online Commerce / Paid Services / Advertising Revenue Drivers – Likely a Preview of What’s to Come in ROW Physical Goods Rakuten Mobile Online Commerce Virtual Goods Chipuyatown Mobile TV w/ Shopping Book Travel Itineraries Mobile Paid Services Check in Flights Pay for Food / Goods Digital Goods Games QR Code Scanning Mobile Advertising Mobile Coupons Brand Ads w/ Social Networks Rolling / Interactive Ads Source: Japan related pictures courtesy of Infinita, Morgan Stanley Research. 331
Page 1 and 2:
The Mobile Internet Report Key Them
Page 3 and 4:
What You are Reading - The Mobile I
Page 5 and 6:
Key Mobile Internet Themes 1) Wealt
Page 7 and 8:
…Key Mobile Internet Themes… 3)
Page 9 and 10:
…Key Mobile Internet Themes 6) Ma
Page 11 and 12:
Key Theme #1 11
Page 13 and 14:
Key Theme #1 - Wealth Creation / De
Page 15 and 16:
Wealth Creation / Destruction Is Ma
Page 17 and 18:
Winners of Each New Cycle Often Cre
Page 19 and 20:
NCR Won Big in Mainframe Era, DEC W
Page 21 and 22:
Compaq + Microsoft Won Big in PC Er
Page 23 and 24:
Net, New Computing Cycles Create /
Page 25 and 26:
New Computing Cycle Characteristics
Page 27 and 28:
12,000,000 Mobile Internet Traffic
Page 29 and 30:
Pace of company change related to m
Page 31 and 32:
Rapid Pace of Corporate M&A Related
Page 33 and 34:
Technology Companies Created > Weal
Page 35 and 36:
Top Internet-Related Tech Wealth Cr
Page 37 and 38:
We Know What Happened Over Past 15
Page 39 and 40:
Mobile Internet Likely to Follow Ti
Page 41 and 42:
2009 Global Top 30 TMT Companies by
Page 43 and 44:
Key Theme #2 43
Page 45 and 46:
Key Theme #2 - Mobile Ramping Faste
Page 47 and 48:
Apple iPhone + iTouch = Fastest new
Page 49 and 50:
Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop In
Page 51 and 52:
Tech Cycles Tend to Last Ten Years
Page 53 and 54:
User-Interface Revolutions (Overlai
Page 55 and 56:
Broad base of IP-based mobile usage
Page 57 and 58:
Wireless Network Primer GPS - Glob
Page 59 and 60:
Increasingly, Mobile Phone Usage is
Page 61 and 62:
Mobile Devices + Infrastructure Ena
Page 63 and 64:
Cloud-Based Content / App Services
Page 65 and 66:
Machine to Machine (M2M) Takes on N
Page 67 and 68:
Rapid growth in number / type of mo
Page 69 and 70:
GPS proliferation (and related loca
Page 71 and 72:
GPS = 421MM Chipsets Sold in 2008E
Page 73 and 74:
WIRED Magazine - “Inside the GPS
Page 75 and 76:
3G proliferation is a big deal. 75
Page 77 and 78:
3G = Key to Enabling Internet Usage
Page 79 and 80:
3G Penetration Inflection Points Va
Page 81 and 82:
3G Growth Still Concentrated in Dev
Page 83 and 84:
USA Likely to Remain Most Dynamic 3
Page 85 and 86:
Wi-Fi proliferation is a big deal.
Page 87 and 88:
Wi-Fi’s High Speed + Wide Availab
Page 89 and 90:
100,000 Wi-Fi Households (USA) = 20
Page 91 and 92:
Bluetooth proliferation is a big de
Page 93 and 94:
Bluetooth = 1.3B Chipsets Sold in 2
Page 95 and 96:
What Is a ‘Smartphone’ We defi
Page 97 and 98:
Smartphone of 2009 = As Powerful as
Page 99 and 100:
Mobile Internet - Leveraging the Ev
Page 101 and 102:
Notebook PC + Smartphone Shipments
Page 103 and 104:
Impressive / Rapid Growing Smartpho
Page 105 and 106:
Consumer Internet-Enabled Devices -
Page 107 and 108:
Significant Growth in 3G + Smartpho
Page 109 and 110:
Unified Communication (UC) Voice (~
Page 111 and 112:
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier
Page 113 and 114:
VoIP = Material Impact on Tradition
Page 115 and 116:
Google Voice Putting User in Contro
Page 117 and 118:
Social Networking - Global Phenomen
Page 119 and 120:
Facebook = Garnering Rising Share o
Page 121 and 122:
Powerful Devices (like iPhone) + Ne
Page 123 and 124:
Video = High Usage + High Bandwidth
Page 125 and 126:
Mobile Ramping Faster than Desktop
Page 127 and 128:
Key Theme #3 1) Wealth Creation / D
Page 129 and 130:
Apple Leading in Mobile Innovation
Page 131 and 132:
Apple’s Impressive Share Likely M
Page 133 and 134:
iTunes App Store = Shot Heard ‘Ro
Page 135 and 136:
iTunes App Store = The Killer Mobil
Page 137 and 138:
Mobile App Definition A mobile appl
Page 139 and 140:
Users / Developers / Apple = Likely
Page 141 and 142:
Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B+ App Dow
Page 143 and 144:
Most Downloaded Free iPhone Apps -
Page 145 and 146:
iPhone Apps for Nearly Everyone - L
Page 147 and 148:
Mobile Developer Mind Share / Focus
Page 149 and 150:
Powerful mobile device usage trends
Page 151 and 152:
iPhone / Android Gaining Mobile Int
Page 153 and 154:
Mobile Internet Operating System Co
Page 155 and 156:
Handset Device Price / Volume Pyram
Page 157 and 158:
High-End Quickly Becomes Low-End -
Page 159 and 160:
iPhone 3G BOM = 33% Lower than iPho
Page 161 and 162:
Apple iTunes App Revenue = Could Su
Page 163 and 164:
Apple leads race for handset profit
Page 165 and 166:
Apple + RIM = 13% Share of Handset
Page 167 and 168:
Apple / RIM - Smartphone Leaders Co
Page 169 and 170:
PC Platform Leaders (Microsoft + In
Page 171 and 172:
Apple iPhone Base Case + Upside Cas
Page 173 and 174:
Scenarios for Apple iPhone Market S
Page 175 and 176:
The Apple Tablet Potential Should N
Page 177 and 178:
Apple - Potential Long-Term Challen
Page 179 and 180:
Google Android’s Open + Low Cost
Page 181 and 182:
Apple may believe its platform mana
Page 183 and 184:
In Technology, Products with Most /
Page 185 and 186:
Multitudes of Android Phones - Tens
Page 187 and 188:
Android’s Conundrum Open-Source S
Page 189 and 190:
Next Generation Android Smartphones
Page 191 and 192:
Apple’s Potential Long-Term Chall
Page 193 and 194:
Native Apps Benefits Challenges For
Page 195 and 196:
Native Apps Should Always Have Perf
Page 197 and 198:
Apple = Likely Well Positioned to N
Page 199 and 200:
Do Incumbents Have Apple-Like Poten
Page 201 and 202:
Smartphones Not Relevant in Emergin
Page 203 and 204:
Retail Sales (Not Carrier Sales) -
Page 205 and 206:
Apple’s Success Has Been Proven i
Page 207 and 208:
Buddhist Phone White-Box “Shanzha
Page 209 and 210:
Don’t Expect Apple to Stand Still
Page 211 and 212:
Carrier Exclusivity Limits Apple’
Page 213 and 214:
iPhone Price Cut to $99 Would Elimi
Page 215 and 216:
Ending Carrier Exclusivity = Could
Page 217 and 218:
Battery Technology Constraining iPh
Page 219 and 220:
Implications of New Horizontal Busi
Page 221 and 222:
Apple’s Vertical Handset Model =
Page 223 and 224:
Apple iPhone + iTouch = On Track to
Page 225 and 226:
Apple iTouch - Key Companion to iPh
Page 227 and 228:
RIM’s Vertical Handset Model = Pr
Page 229 and 230:
Threats from RIM’s Vertical Integ
Page 231 and 232:
Horizontal Handset Model Finally Em
Page 233 and 234:
Opportunities / Benefits from Horiz
Page 235 and 236:
Key Theme #4 235
Page 237 and 238:
Key Theme #4 - Game-Changing Commun
Page 239 and 240:
Facebook and Apple iPhone / iTouch
Page 241 and 242:
Facebook + Apple iPhone / iTouch =
Page 243 and 244:
Social Networks - Underpinning of I
Page 245 and 246:
Social Networking Driving Consumer
Page 247 and 248:
Social Networks - Gaining Material
Page 249 and 250:
Facebook Platform - A Hub for Commu
Page 251 and 252:
Facebook - Next Generation Portal f
Page 253 and 254:
Facebook - Largest Share Gainer of
Page 255 and 256:
Facebook / Twitter Replacing Tradit
Page 257 and 258:
Communication on Twitter Not Only C
Page 259 and 260:
Facebook Users = Heavy Content Crea
Page 261 and 262:
Top 10 Facebook Applications - Game
Page 263 and 264:
Facebook = A Platform for Advertise
Page 265 and 266:
Facebook - Opportunity for Advertis
Page 267 and 268:
Facebook - Advertiser / Vendor Succ
Page 269 and 270:
Social Networks in General = Platfo
Page 271 and 272:
LinkedIn - Social Network for Profe
Page 273 and 274:
Like Twitter and Facebook, Foursqua
Page 275 and 276:
Advertising Follows Eyeballs - Glob
Page 277 and 278:
Facebook - Vibrant Developer / Appl
Page 279 and 280: Developer / Application Success on
Page 281 and 282: China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
Page 283 and 284: Tencent Business Model Overview - H
Page 285 and 286: Mobile = Future of Social Networks
Page 287 and 288: Mobile Social Networking in Japan ~
Page 289 and 290: Facebook Symbiotic with Mobile - Sh
Page 291 and 292: Carriers’ ‘Walled Gardens’ =
Page 293 and 294: Apple Unshackled Developers + Consu
Page 295 and 296: Mobile Commerce = Accelerator for O
Page 297 and 298: 15 Years for Online to Reach 4% of
Page 299 and 300: Mobile Revolutionizing Commerce - W
Page 301 and 302: Deep Discounts - Invitation-Only Ti
Page 303 and 304: Traditional Retailers Using Pings t
Page 305 and 306: Key Theme #5 305
Page 307 and 308: Key Theme #5 Growth / Monetization
Page 309 and 310: Japan has led world by 5-10 years i
Page 311 and 312: ROW’s Mobile Internet Revenue Mix
Page 313 and 314: Mobile Revenue (ex. Data Access) pe
Page 315 and 316: 3G Penetration - …Developed / Eme
Page 317 and 318: Why Has Japan Led the World in Mobi
Page 319 and 320: Rich Content / Apps / Services - Ja
Page 321 and 322: Powerful / Internet-Enabled Handset
Page 323 and 324: Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
Page 325 and 326: Japan Mobile Online Commerce / Paid
Page 327 and 328: Japan as Proxy for Technology’s R
Page 329: Japan mobile monetization models pr
Page 333 and 334: Mobile Online Commerce - Promising
Page 335 and 336: Japan - Physical Products Gaining S
Page 337 and 338: ROW Also Making Inroads into Mobile
Page 339 and 340: ROW - Branded Mobile Apps Could Dri
Page 341 and 342: Digital Content (Music / Video / Ap
Page 343 and 344: Digital Content - Mobile Games / Mu
Page 345 and 346: Tencent Business Model Overview - H
Page 347 and 348: Japan - Virtual / Digital Goods on
Page 349 and 350: China Serves as Proxy & Leads World
Page 351 and 352: Developer / Application Success on
Page 353 and 354: Japan Mobile Paid Services 5 Years
Page 355 and 356: Rakuten Travel - Mobile Gross Hotel
Page 357 and 358: Mobile Advertising - Personalizatio
Page 359 and 360: Japan - Mobile Advertising - 24% CA
Page 361 and 362: Upside to Mobile Search Advertising
Page 363 and 364: Heavy Search / Display Advertising
Page 365 and 366: Interactive Video Advertising Revol
Page 367 and 368: Desktop Internet Monetization Evolu
Page 369 and 370: …While Premium Content Revenue (U
Page 371 and 372: At Margin, Advertising + Online Com
Page 373 and 374: Users Often Pay for Content as Long
Page 375 and 376: View of Paid vs. Ad-Supported Conte
Page 377 and 378: Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Out o
Page 379 and 380: History Proves That Ads Follow Eyeb
Page 381 and 382:
Global Mobile Advertising Scenario
Page 383 and 384:
Global Mobile Online Commerce / Pai
Page 385 and 386:
Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem -
Page 387 and 388:
Global Mobile Internet Ecosystem Re
Page 389 and 390:
Mobile Internet Revenue Mix Shiftin
Page 391 and 392:
Google - Internet Search Innovation
Page 393 and 394:
Amazon.com - Online Shopping Experi
Page 395 and 396:
Some companies can benefit from tec
Page 397 and 398:
How Mobile Internet Revenue May Evo
Page 399 and 400:
Key Theme #6 1) Wealth Creation / D
Page 401 and 402:
Key Theme #6 - Massive Data Growth
Page 403 and 404:
The Carriers’ Capex Conundrum…
Page 405 and 406:
Massive Data Growth Driving Carrier
Page 407 and 408:
Global Mobile Data Trends Imply Ong
Page 409 and 410:
Global Mobile Data Users - 29% CAGR
Page 411 and 412:
Global Mobile Data Users - 55% CAGR
Page 413 and 414:
Company- and Product-level Mobile D
Page 415 and 416:
AT&T = 50x Mobile Data Traffic Incr
Page 417 and 418:
Data = Increasingly Dominating Netw
Page 419 and 420:
European Market Supporting Data and
Page 421 and 422:
Smartphone Data Usage Will Rise wit
Page 423 and 424:
Near Term, Mobile Internet Usage Su
Page 425 and 426:
European Mobile Network Utilization
Page 427 and 428:
As Data Usage Becomes More Importan
Page 429 and 430:
Aggregate Mobile Data Network Suppl
Page 431 and 432:
Network Congestion in High Density
Page 433 and 434:
Total Network Capacity on a Cell Si
Page 435 and 436:
However, As Smartphone Penetration
Page 437 and 438:
Overview of a Mobile Data Network T
Page 439 and 440:
Wireless Capacity - Where Does It L
Page 441 and 442:
Network Improvement Timeline Step A
Page 443 and 444:
Short-Term Network Improvements - H
Page 445 and 446:
Short-term Network Improvements - W
Page 447 and 448:
Wireless Backhaul Capacity Expected
Page 449 and 450:
Mobile Internet Implications for Wi
Page 451 and 452:
Wi-Fi Moves from Carrier Foe to Fri
Page 453 and 454:
Wi-Fi Significantly Cheaper for Car
Page 455 and 456:
Wi-Fi Network Coverage in Home and
Page 457 and 458:
~7,000 AT&T Wi-Fi Access Points at
Page 459 and 460:
Wi-Fi Case Study #2 - Boosting Valu
Page 461 and 462:
Bottom Line = Wi-Fi Offload Will Be
Page 463 and 464:
HSPA + Backhaul Upgrades Should Red
Page 465 and 466:
Long-term Network Improvements - Ne
Page 467 and 468:
Good News = Proprietary Network Opt
Page 469 and 470:
Long-term Network Improvements - Up
Page 471 and 472:
HSPA / LTE Buildout Roadmap - Succe
Page 473 and 474:
LTE = 24x Theoretical Bandwidth of
Page 475 and 476:
39 Operators in 19 Countries Alread
Page 477 and 478:
LTE Introduction Cost Should Be Low
Page 479 and 480:
New Lower Spectrum Allocations, Suc
Page 481 and 482:
Spectral Efficiency ((Bit/S)/Hz), p
Page 483 and 484:
What effect will long-term network
Page 485 and 486:
Raw Network Capacity Improvement Ca
Page 487 and 488:
Underlying Technology Improvements
Page 489 and 490:
Case Study - 2010E Capex Analysis f
Page 491 and 492:
AT&T Plans to Increase Capacity in
Page 493 and 494:
Network Sharing Is Becoming Increas
Page 495 and 496:
In the USA and W. Europe, Carrier V
Page 497 and 498:
Premium Voice + SMS Revenue Share L
Page 499 and 500:
Rapid Consumer / Business Adoption
Page 501 and 502:
VoIP International Long Distance (I
Page 503 and 504:
Mobile Texting Revenue Growth Slowi
Page 505 and 506:
Global Mobile Voice TTM Revenue of
Page 507 and 508:
Mobile Data Pricing Models in Flux
Page 509 and 510:
Flat-Rate Pricing = Necessary for U
Page 511 and 512:
Flat-Rate Wireless Data Plans - Pro
Page 513 and 514:
Flat-Rate Pricing May Also Encourag
Page 515 and 516:
Wireline Broadband Tiered Pricing C
Page 517 and 518:
KDDI Tiered Flat-Rate Pricing Cater
Page 519 and 520:
Bell Canada Combo Plans Bring Tiere
Page 521 and 522:
Base Case USA / W. Europe Carrier O
Page 523 and 524:
Key Scenario Drivers for US Wireles
Page 525 and 526:
USA Wireless Revenue Base Case Scen
Page 527 and 528:
Total ARPU Expected to Decline Slig
Page 529 and 530:
Non-Text Revenue = Key to Data Reve
Page 531 and 532:
W. Europe* Wireless Service Revenue
Page 533 and 534:
Implied W. Europe Wireless Carrier
Page 535 and 536:
Scale, Access to Spectrum and Capit
Page 537 and 538:
…10 Attributes of Winning Wireles
Page 539 and 540:
Scale = Key Competitive Advantage f
Page 541 and 542:
USA Spectrum Holdings - Larger Carr
Page 543 and 544:
Exclusive Devices (such as iPhone)
Page 545 and 546:
But Carrying the iPhone Is Mixed Bl
Page 547 and 548:
Competitive Share Gain Opportunitie
Page 549 and 550:
Scenario: AT&T Loses iPhone Exclusi
Page 551 and 552:
Opportunities for Network Equipment
Page 553 and 554:
Total Wireless Equipment Revenue Ex
Page 555 and 556:
Network Services Is Now ~$80B Addre
Page 557 and 558:
Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by Co
Page 559 and 560:
…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
Page 561 and 562:
…Mobile / 3G Subscriber Trends by
Page 563 and 564:
Key Theme #7 563
Page 565 and 566:
Key Theme #7 - Compelling Opportuni
Page 567 and 568:
Emerging Markets = Significant Long
Page 569 and 570:
Emerging Markets = Significant Long
Page 571 and 572:
At Inflection Point, Long-Term EM O
Page 573 and 574:
Opportunities Could Be Significant
Page 575 and 576:
Over Time, Impact of Mobile Interne
Page 577 and 578:
…Caused in Part by Sub-20% Fixed-
Page 579 and 580:
3G / Wireless = ‘Only Choice’ f
Page 581 and 582:
Vibrant Mobile Value-Added Services
Page 583 and 584:
Emerging Asia VAS Revenue Share Alr
Page 585 and 586:
Emerging Market Carriers Adapted to
Page 587 and 588:
Bharti-Airtel = Cost Savings from O
Page 589 and 590:
Compressing Wireless Data Could Red
Page 591 and 592:
Emerging Markets - Some Near-Term 3
Page 593 and 594:
Near-Term 3G Adoption Barriers = Lo
Page 595 and 596:
Low Post-Paid Ratio + Low GDP per C
Page 597 and 598:
High Monthly Data Plan Costs = Near
Page 599 and 600:
Emerging Markets Regional Analysis
Page 601 and 602:
Regional Analysis / Forecast - Chin
Page 603 and 604:
Chinese Consumers Are Ready for 3G
Page 605 and 606:
3G Creates New Battle Ground for Ch
Page 607 and 608:
iPhone Costs Too High for Majority
Page 609 and 610:
Key Scenario Drivers for China Wire
Page 611 and 612:
China Wireless Revenue Base Case Sc
Page 613 and 614:
Data ARPU Growth Expected to Partia
Page 615 and 616:
India - Near-term Barriers to 3G Ad
Page 617 and 618:
India - Upcoming Auction to Bring 3
Page 619 and 620:
Base Case: Winning 3G Spectrum Does
Page 621 and 622:
Capex Required for 3G Network Could
Page 623 and 624:
Other Emerging Asia - Low Fixed-Lin
Page 625 and 626:
Philippines - Mobile Overtook Fixed
Page 627 and 628:
Indonesia - Mobile Could Accelerate
Page 629 and 630:
WiMAX in Emerging Asia - Still in N
Page 631 and 632:
EEMEA - Carriers Leverage Cost-Effe
Page 633 and 634:
Africa - Mobile Broadband Prolifera
Page 635 and 636:
Middle East + Africa Have the Lowes
Page 637 and 638:
Key Scenario Drivers for Russia Wir
Page 639 and 640:
Key Theme #8 639
Page 641 and 642:
Key Theme #8 - Regulators Can Help
Page 643 and 644:
Net Neutrality - Key to Decentraliz
Page 645 and 646:
In the US, FCC Has Issued a “Noti
Page 647 and 648:
Both Sides of Net Neutrality Debate
Page 649 and 650:
What Could Regulators Do to Acceler
Page 651 and 652:
Lower Mobile Data Roaming Fees = En
Page 653 and 654:
“Not in My Back Yard” (NIMBY) P
Page 655 and 656:
3G Licenses Reshape China’s Compe
Page 657 and 658:
USA Recent Developments - USA F
Page 659 and 660:
Recent Developments - China / India
Page 661 and 662:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Morgan S
Page 663 and 664:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Within t
Page 665 and 666:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Analyst
Page 667 and 668:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Stock Pr
Page 669 and 670:
Disclosure Section (cont.) Importan
Page 671:
Disclosure Section (cont.) MTN does
show all

The Mobile Internet Report Key Themes*

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?