Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts
Eurozone
France
US
Headline HICP Ex-tobacco HICP
Headline CPI
Ex-tobacco CPI
CPI Urban SA CPI Urban NSA
Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y
2009 108.1 - 0.3 107.9 - 0.2 119.3 - 0.1 118.0 - 0.1 214.6 - -0.3 214.5 - -0.4
2010 (1) 109.5 - 1.3 109.1 - 1.1 120.9 - 1.3 119.5 - 1.3 219.9 - 2.5 219.9 - 2.5
2011 (1) 110.4 - 0.8 109.8 - 0.7 122.1 - 1.0 120.7 - 1.0 222.4 - 1.1 222.4 - 1.1
Q3 2009 108.0 - -0.4 107.8 - -0.5 119.4 - -0.4 118.1 - -0.4 215.2 - -1.6 215.7 - -1.6
Q4 2009 108.6 - 0.4 108.4 - 0.3 119.7 - 0.4 118.4 - 0.3 217.1 - 1.5 216.2 - 1.4
Q1 2010 (1) 108.6 - 1.1 108.3 - 0.9 120.1 - 1.1 118.7 - 1.0 218.6 - 2.8 217.9 - 2.8
Q2 2010 (1) 109.5 - 1.1 109.2 - 0.9 120.8 - 1.1 119.4 - 1.0 219.4 - 2.8 220.5 - 2.9
Q3 2010 (1) 109.4 - 1.3 109.0 - 1.2 121.2 - 1.5 119.8 - 1.4 220.4 - 2.4 220.9 - 2.4
Q4 2010 (1) 110.3 - 1.6 109.9 - 1.5 121.5 - 1.5 120.1 - 1.5 221.4 - 2.0 220.4 - 2.0
Q1 2011 (1) 109.8 - 1.2 109.4 - 1.0 121.7 - 1.3 120.2 - 1.3 221.9 - 1.5 221.2 - 1.5
Q2 2011 (1) 110.6 - 1.0 110.1 - 0.9 122.3 - 1.3 120.9 - 1.2 222.3 - 1.3 223.3 - 1.3
Jul 09 107.8 -0.7 -0.7 107.51 -0.7 -0.8 119.1 -0.4 -0.7 117.80 -0.4 -0.7 214.5 0.0 -1.9 215.35 -0.2 -2.1
Aug 09 108.1 0.3 -0.2 107.89 0.4 -0.3 119.7 0.5 -0.2 118.41 0.5 -0.2 215.4 0.4 -1.4 215.83 0.2 -1.5
Sep 09 108.2 0.0 -0.3 107.91 0.0 -0.5 119.4 -0.2 -0.4 118.12 -0.2 -0.4 215.8 0.2 -1.3 215.97 0.1 -1.3
Oct 09 108.4 0.2 -0.1 108.16 0.2 -0.3 119.5 0.1 -0.2 118.23 0.1 -0.2 216.4 0.3 -0.2 216.18 0.1 -0.2
Nov 09 108.5 0.1 0.5 108.28 0.1 0.4 119.6 0.1 0.4 118.31 0.1 0.3 217.3 0.4 1.9 216.33 0.1 1.8
Dec 09 108.9 0.3 0.9 108.61 0.3 0.8 120.0 0.3 0.9 118.60 0.2 0.8 217.5 0.1 2.8 215.95 -0.2 2.7
Jan 10 (1) 108.1 -0.7 1.1 107.80 -0.7 0.9 119.8 -0.2 1.2 118.41 -0.2 1.1 218.2 0.3 2.9 217.05 0.5 2.8
Feb 10 (1) 108.5 0.3 1.0 108.17 0.3 0.8 120.1 0.3 1.1 118.79 0.3 1.0 218.6 0.2 2.6 217.72 0.3 2.6
Mar 10 (1) 109.1 0.6 1.2 108.80 0.6 1.1 120.4 0.2 1.1 119.02 0.2 1.0 218.9 0.1 2.9 218.91 0.5 2.9
Apr 10 (1) 109.4 0.3 1.1 109.08 0.3 1.0 120.6 0.2 1.1 119.25 0.2 1.1 219.2 0.1 3.1 219.93 0.5 3.1
May 10 (1) 109.5 0.1 1.2 109.20 0.1 1.0 120.8 0.2 1.2 119.45 0.2 1.1 219.4 0.1 3.1 220.60 0.3 3.2
Jun 10 (1) 109.5 0.0 1.0 109.18 0.0 0.8 120.9 0.1 1.1 119.52 0.1 1.0 219.7 0.1 2.4 220.99 0.2 2.5
Jul 10 (1) 109.1 -0.4 1.2 108.69 -0.4 1.1 120.9 0.0 1.5 119.51 0.0 1.5 220.0 0.2 2.6 220.94 0.0 2.6
Aug 10 (1) 109.4 0.3 1.2 108.98 0.3 1.0 121.3 0.4 1.4 119.96 0.4 1.3 220.4 0.2 2.3 220.83 0.0 2.3
Sep 10 (1) 109.8 0.3 1.5 109.37 0.4 1.4 121.3 0.0 1.7 119.99 0.0 1.6 220.8 0.2 2.3 220.95 0.1 2.3
Oct 10 (1) 110.1 0.3 1.6 109.76 0.4 1.5 121.5 0.1 1.6 120.10 0.1 1.6 221.1 0.1 2.2 220.96 0.0 2.2
Nov 10 (1) 110.3 0.1 1.6 109.87 0.1 1.5 121.4 0.0 1.5 120.08 0.0 1.5 221.4 0.1 1.9 220.44 -0.2 1.9
Dec 10 (1) 110.6 0.3 1.6 110.21 0.3 1.5 121.6 0.1 1.3 120.21 0.1 1.4 221.6 0.1 1.9 219.93 -0.2 1.8
Updated
Next
Release
Feb 09
Jan HICP (Feb 26)
Jan 29
Jan CPI (Feb 23)
Feb 08
Jan CPI (Feb 19)
Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts
Chart 4: Eurozone HICP (% y/y)
Chart 5: US Shelter Prices Drive Core CPI Lower
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
While headline inflation troughed in July, core inflation is forecast
to continue grinding lower, as the output gap weighs on ex-food,
ex-energy prices.
Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro
The plunge in shelter inflation remains the driver of the underlying
trend in the CPI. Inflation in core goods has eased, however,
following a temporary boost from a series of tobacco tax hikes and
a sharp contraction in vehicle inventories.
Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 12 February 2010
Market Mover
27
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