Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Table 2: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Japan UK Sweden Core CPI SA Core CPI NSA Headline CPI RPI CPI CPIF Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y Index % m/m % y/y 2009 100.3 - -1.3 100.3 - -1.3 110.8 - 2.1 213.7 - -0.5 299.7 - -0.3 191.2 - 1.9 2010 (1) 98.7 - -1.6 98.7 - -1.6 113.6 - 2.5 221.2 - 3.5 304.8 - 1.7 195.4 - 2.2 2011 (1) 98.4 - -0.4 98.4 - -0.4 114.7 - 1.0 227.3 - 2.7 313.4 - 2.8 199.0 - 1.8 Q3 2009 99.9 - -2.3 100.1 - -2.3 111.3 - 1.5 214.4 - -1.4 299.5 - -1.2 191.6 - 1.6 Q4 2009 99.7 - -1.8 99.9 - -1.8 112.1 - 2.1 216.9 - 0.6 301.3 - -0.4 193.2 - 2.3 Q1 2010 (1) 99.4 - -1.6 99.0 - -1.5 112.8 - 3.1 218.5 - 3.6 301.6 - 1.2 193.7 - 2.5 Q2 2010 (1) 98.6 - -1.9 98.6 - -1.9 113.4 - 2.5 220.8 - 3.8 303.8 - 1.4 195.0 - 2.1 Q3 2010 (1) 98.2 - -1.7 98.4 - -1.7 113.7 - 2.1 221.7 - 3.4 304.8 - 1.8 195.6 - 2.1 Q4 2010 (1) 98.8 - -0.9 99.0 - -0.9 114.4 - 2.0 223.8 - 3.2 308.9 - 2.5 197.4 - 2.2 Q1 2011 (1) 98.8 - -0.7 98.3 - -0.7 114.2 - 1.3 224.7 - 2.9 308.7 - 2.4 197.2 - 1.8 Q2 2011 (1) 98.5 - -0.1 98.5 - -0.1 114.9 - 1.4 227.1 - 2.9 311.8 - 2.6 198.4 - 1.7 Jul 09 100.0 -0.2 -2.2 100.1 -0.2 -2.2 110.9 -0.1 1.8 213.40 0.0 -1.4 298.8 -0.5 -0.9 191.1 -0.2 1.8 Aug 09 99.8 -0.2 -2.4 100.1 0.0 -2.4 111.4 0.5 1.6 214.40 0.5 -1.3 299.4 0.2 -0.8 191.5 0.2 1.9 Sep 09 99.8 0.0 -2.3 100.2 0.1 -2.3 111.5 0.1 1.1 215.30 0.4 -1.4 300.4 0.3 -1.6 192.3 0.4 1.4 Oct 09 99.7 -0.1 -2.3 100.1 -0.1 -2.2 111.7 0.2 1.5 216.00 0.3 -0.8 301.1 0.3 -1.5 193.0 0.3 1.9 Nov 09 99.8 0.1 -1.7 99.9 -0.2 -1.7 112.0 0.3 1.9 216.60 0.3 0.3 301.0 0.0 -0.7 193.0 0.0 2.3 Dec-09 99.7 -0.1 -1.3 99.8 -0.1 -1.3 112.6 0.6 2.9 218.01 0.7 2.4 301.7 0.2 0.9 193.5 0.2 2.7 Jan 10 (1) 99.5 -0.2 -1.4 99.1 -0.7 -1.4 112.6 0.0 3.6 217.63 -0.2 3.6 300.9 -0.3 1.0 193.2 -0.1 2.7 Feb 10 (1) 99.5 0.0 -1.5 98.9 -0.2 -1.5 112.9 0.2 3.0 218.54 0.4 3.4 301.4 0.2 1.2 193.6 0.2 2.4 Mar 10 (1) 99.3 -0.2 -1.7 99.0 0.1 -1.7 112.9 0.0 2.8 219.27 0.3 3.8 302.6 0.4 1.3 194.2 0.3 2.2 Apr 10 (1) 98.6 -0.7 -2.2 98.5 -0.5 -2.2 113.2 0.2 2.8 220.20 0.4 4.1 303.7 0.4 1.5 194.9 0.4 2.3 May 10 (1) 98.7 0.1 -1.8 98.7 0.2 -1.8 113.5 0.3 2.5 220.76 0.3 3.7 303.7 0.0 1.4 194.9 0.0 2.1 Jun 10 (1) 98.4 -0.3 -1.8 98.5 -0.2 -1.8 113.6 0.1 2.3 221.39 0.3 3.7 304.1 0.1 1.3 195.1 0.1 1.9 Jul 10 (1) 98.2 -0.2 -1.8 98.3 -0.2 -1.8 113.1 -0.4 2.0 220.89 -0.2 3.5 303.2 -0.3 1.5 194.6 -0.3 1.8 Aug 10 (1) 98.1 -0.1 -1.7 98.4 0.1 -1.7 114.0 0.8 2.4 221.99 0.5 3.5 304.1 0.3 1.6 195.3 0.4 1.9 Sep 10 (1) 98.2 0.1 -1.6 98.6 0.2 -1.6 114.0 -0.1 2.2 222.36 0.2 3.3 307.2 1.0 2.3 196.8 0.8 2.3 Oct 10 (1) 98.6 0.4 -1.1 99.0 0.4 -1.1 114.3 0.3 2.3 223.37 0.5 3.4 308.7 0.5 2.5 197.4 0.3 2.3 Nov 10 (1) 98.9 0.3 -0.9 99.0 0.0 -0.9 114.3 0.0 2.0 223.55 0.1 3.2 308.5 0.0 2.5 197.5 0.0 2.3 Dec 10 (1) 98.8 -0.1 -0.9 98.9 -0.1 -0.9 114.6 0.2 1.7 224.36 0.4 2.9 309.6 0.3 2.6 197.3 -0.1 1.9 Updated Next Release Jan 29 Jan CPI (Feb 25) Feb 11 Jan CPI (Feb 16) Feb 11 Jan CPI (Feb 18) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 6: Japanese CPI (% y/y) Chart 7: UK CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Inflation is likely to remain heavily in negative territory for the foreseeable future. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Inflation surprised to the upside in December for the 16 th time in the past 21 months. We expect CPI inflation to breach the 3% y/y threshold in January but to moderate subsequently. Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 12 February 2010 Market Mover 28 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation Forecasts Canada Norway Australia CPI Core CPI Headline CPI Core CPI Core Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y Index % q/q % y/y 2009 114.4 0.3 113.6 1.8 125.7 2.2 118.4 2.6 167.8 - 1.8 - - 3.7 2010 (1) 116.2 1.6 115.5 1.6 128.3 2.1 120.4 1.7 172.8 - 3.0 - - 2.8 2011 (1) 117.9 1.4 116.8 1.2 131.1 2.1 122.8 2.0 178.5 - 3.3 - - 2.9 Q3 2009 114.7 0.5 -0.9 113.9 1.2 1.6 125.8 0.0 1.8 118.5 0.0 2.4 168.6 1.0 1.3 - - 3.5 Q4 2009 114.9 0.6 0.8 114.4 1.9 1.6 126.6 0.6 1.4 119.3 0.7 2.3 169.5 0.5 2.1 - - 3.4 Q1 2010 (1) 115.3 1.6 1.5 114.8 1.4 1.9 128.0 1.1 2.6 119.5 0.1 2.0 170.5 0.6 2.6 - - 3.1 Q2 2010 (1) 116.0 2.2 1.2 115.3 1.7 1.5 128.6 0.5 2.2 120.6 0.9 1.7 171.9 0.8 2.9 - - 2.7 Q3 2010 (1) 116.6 2.2 1.6 115.7 1.4 1.6 128.0 -0.5 1.7 120.4 -0.1 1.6 173.7 1.0 3.0 - - 2.5 Q4 2010 (1) 117.1 1.6 1.9 116.0 1.2 1.4 128.8 0.6 1.8 121.0 0.4 1.4 175.0 0.8 3.3 - - 2.8 Q1 2011 (1) 117.4 1.2 1.8 116.4 1.2 1.4 129.3 0.4 1.1 121.3 0.2 1.5 176.2 0.7 3.4 - - 2.9 Q2 2011 (1) 117.7 0.9 1.5 116.7 1.0 1.2 130.9 1.2 1.8 122.7 1.2 1.8 177.8 0.9 3.4 - - 2.9 Updated Feb 05 Feb 10 Jan 27 Next Release Jan CPI (Feb 18) Feb CPI (Mar 10) Q1 CPI (Apr 28) Source: BNP Paribas, (1) Forecasts Chart 8: Canadian Total vs. Core CPI Chart 9: Australian CPI (% y/y) Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas After plunging to a 56-year low last July, headline inflation is already back into positive territory. However, the large amount of spare capacity and the strong CAD suggest core inflation will continue to ease well into this year. Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro, BNP Paribas Underlying inflation is slowing, but remains above the RBA's target range. While it will continue to moderate, the relatively limited and diminishing degree of slack in the economy mean underlying inflation will settle at the top end of the range presenting upside risks further ahead. CPI Data Calendar for the Coming Week Day GMT Economy Indicator Previous BNPP F’cast Consensus Fri 12/03 08:00 Spain CPI (Final) m/m : Jan 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 08:00 CPI (Final) y/y : Jan 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 08:00 HICP (Final) m/m : Jan 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 08:00 HICP (Final) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% Comment Tue 16/02 09:30 UK CPI m/m : Jan 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Rising 09:30 CPI y/y : Jan 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 09:30 RPI y/y : Jan 2.4% 3.6% 3.8% 09:30 RPIX y/y : Jan 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% Thu 18/02 08:30 Sweden CPI (nsa) m/m : Jan 0.2% -0.3% n/a 08:30 CPI (nsa) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.0% n/a 08:30 CPIF m/m : Jan 0.2% -0.1% n/a 08:30 CPIF y/y : Jan 2.7% 2.7% n/a 12:00 Canada CPI m/m : Jan -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Increase 12:00 CPI y/y : Jan 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 12:00 BoC Core CPI m/m : Jan -0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 12:00 BoC Core CPI y/y : Jan 1.5% 2.1% 1.9% Fri 19/02 13:30 US CPI m/m : Jan 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% Moderate Increase 13:30 CPI y/y : Jan 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 13:30 Core CPI m/m : Jan 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13:30 Core CPI y/y : Jan 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Luigi Speranza/Eoin O’Callaghan 12 February 2010 Market Mover 29 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: gave a few specific details on the
Page 5 and 6: More clarity was given on the seque
Page 7 and 8: Sovereign Debt: Time for Europe to
Page 9 and 10: The PS is more likely to face in th
Page 11 and 12: outlook for GDP and inflation. So h
Page 13 and 14: On inflation, Riksbank’s language
Page 15 and 16: Spending on other areas never did i
Page 17 and 18: would argue that resolving this iss
Page 19 and 20: Ramifications for Rates, Swap Sprea
Page 21 and 22: EUR: Demand for ECB’s Liquidity S
Page 23 and 24: EUR: Peripheral ASW Curves Re-Steep
Page 25 and 26: JGBs: Wait for Price Dips in Q2 •
Page 27: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 31 and 32: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 33 and 34: Update on curves 5/10y indices’ c
Page 35 and 36: Technical Analysis - Interest Rates
Page 37 and 38: Trade Reviews Options, Money Market
Page 39 and 40: leave the euro significantly lower.
Page 41 and 42: open for further measures if requir
Page 43 and 44: EUR/SEK has broken sharply lower th
Page 45 and 46: Economic Calendar: 12 - 19 February
Page 47 and 48: Key Data Preview 115 105 95 85 75 6
Page 49 and 50: Key Data Preview Chart 5: Italian G
Page 51 and 52: Key Data Preview Source: Reuters Ec
Page 53 and 54: Key Data Preview Chart 13: Norwegia
Page 55 and 56: Key Data Preview Chart 17: UK Retai
Page 57 and 58: Economic Calendar: 15 February - 12
Page 59 and 60: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 61 and 62: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 63 and 64: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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