Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Currency Spot Trade Recommendations Date GBP/SEK 11.380 Sell 11.510, stop 11.650, target 10.600 11 Feb 2010 NOK/SEK 1.2275 Sell 1.2340, stop 1.2440, target 1.20 11 Feb 2010 GBP/USD 1.5685 Sell 1.5870, stop 1.6115, target 1.51 05 Feb 2010 USD/JPY 89.75 Buy 88.10, stop 87.10, target 96.00 05 Feb 2010 AUD/USD 0.9000 Short at 0.8780, stop 0.8930, target 0.8160 09 Feb 2010 EUR/USD 1.3655 Short at 1.3835, lower stop to 1.3835, target 1.31 09 Feb 2010 USD/CHF 1.0735 Long at 1.0560, stop raise to 1.0590, target 1.10 01 Feb 2010 Source: BNP Paribas Ian Stannard 12 February 2010 Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section 44 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Economic Calendar: 12 - 19 February GMT Local Previous Forecast Consensus Fri 12/02 07:00 08:00 Germany GDP (Flash) q/q : Q4 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 07:00 08:00 GDP (Flash) y/y : Q4 -4.8% -2.1% -2.2% 07:45 08:45 France Wages (nsa, Prel) q/q : Q4 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 07:45 08:45 Wages (Prel) y/y : Q4 2.0% 2.0% n/a 07:45 08:45 GDP (Prel) q/q : Q4 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 07:45 08:45 GDP (Prel) y/y : Q4 -2.3% -0.2% -0.3% 07:45 08:45 Non-Farm Payrolls (Prel) q/q : Q4 -0.6% -0.2% -0.3% 07:45 08:45 Non-Farm Payrolls (Prel) y/y : Q4 -2.7% -2.4% n/a 08:00 09:00 Spain CPI (Final) m/m : Jan 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 08:00 09:00 CPI (Final) y/y : Jan 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 08:00 09:00 HICP (Final) m/m : Jan 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% 08:00 09:00 HICP (Final) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 08:00 09:00 Eurozone ECB’s Nowotny Speaks in Vienna 10:00 11:00 Industrial Production (sa) m/m : Dec -0.2% -0.8% 0.1% 10:00 11:00 Industrial Production (wda) y/y : Dec -6.8% -2.5% -1.7% 10:00 11:00 GDP (Flash) q/q : Q4 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 10:00 11:00 GDP (Flash) y/y : Q4 -4.0% -1.8% -1.9% 08:30 09:30 Neths GDP (Prel) q/q : Q4 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 08:30 09:30 GDP (Prel) y/y : Q4 -3.7% -1.9% -2.5% 08:30 09:30 Retail Sales y/y : Dec -6.4% -7.5% n/a 09:00 10:00 Italy GDP (Prel) q/q : Q4 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 09:00 10:00 GDP (Prel) y/y : Q4 -4.6% -2.5% -2.6% 13:30 08:30 US Retail Sales m/m : Jan -0.3% -0.9% 0.3% 13:30 08:30 Retail Sales Ex-Autos m/m : Jan -0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 14:30 09:30 Fed’s Tarullo Testifies on Systemic Risk to Senate Panel 14:55 09:55 Michigan Sentiment (Prel) : Feb 74.4 76.5 75.0 15:00 10:00 Business Inventories : Dec 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% Mon 15/02 Holiday US, Canada 23:50 08:50 Japan GDP (Prel) q/q : Q4 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 23:50 08:50 GDP (Prel) y/y : Q4 -5.1% -1.2% n/a (14/02) 00:01 00:01 UK Rightmove House Price Index : Feb 09:00 10:00 Italy EU Trade Balance : Dec EUR-0.8bn EUR-1.0bn n/a 16:00 17:00 Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet Tue 16/02 00:30 01:30 Australia RBA MPC Minutes 00:30 01:30 NAB Business Confidence : Jan 8 12 n/a 00:30 01:30 NAB Business Conditions : Jan 10 9 n/a 07:00 08:00 Eurozone EU25 New Car Registrations : Jan 08:30 09:30 EU Finance Ministers Meet 09:30 09:30 UK CPI m/m : Jan 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 09:30 09:30 CPI y/y : Jan 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 09:30 09:30 RPI y/y : Jan 2.4% 3.6% 3.8% 09:30 09:30 RPIX y/y : Jan 3.8% 4.5% 4.6% 09:30 09:30 DCLG UK House Prices y/y : Dec 10:00 11:00 Germany ZEW Expectations : Feb 47.2 40.0 41.0 10:00 11:00 ZEW Current Assessment : Feb -56.6 -51.0 -52.0 13:30 08:30 US Empire State Survey : Feb 16 19 17 14:00 09:00 TICS Data : Dec USD26.6bn USD25.0bn n/a 17:00 12:00 Fed’s Hoenig speaks at Budget Policy Forum in Washington 17:45 12:45 Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks on the Economic Outlook in Minnesota 18:00 13:00 NAHB Housing Market Index : Feb 15 16 16 Wed 17/02 23:50 08:50 Japan Tertiary Index (sa) m/m : Dec -0.2% -0.3% -0.3% (16/02) 05:00 06:00 Eurozone ECB’s Quaden Speaks 10:00 11:00 Foreign Trade Balance (nsa) : Dec EUR4.8bn EUR8.0bn n/a 08:00 09:00 Spain GDP (Final) q/q : Q4 -0.1% (p) -0.1% n/a 08:00 09:00 GDP (Final) y/y : Q4 -3.1% (p) -3.1% n/a Market Economics 12 February 2010 Market Mover 45 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: gave a few specific details on the
Page 5 and 6: More clarity was given on the seque
Page 7 and 8: Sovereign Debt: Time for Europe to
Page 9 and 10: The PS is more likely to face in th
Page 11 and 12: outlook for GDP and inflation. So h
Page 13 and 14: On inflation, Riksbank’s language
Page 15 and 16: Spending on other areas never did i
Page 17 and 18: would argue that resolving this iss
Page 19 and 20: Ramifications for Rates, Swap Sprea
Page 21 and 22: EUR: Demand for ECB’s Liquidity S
Page 23 and 24: EUR: Peripheral ASW Curves Re-Steep
Page 25 and 26: JGBs: Wait for Price Dips in Q2 •
Page 27 and 28: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 29 and 30: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 31 and 32: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 33 and 34: Update on curves 5/10y indices’ c
Page 35 and 36: Technical Analysis - Interest Rates
Page 37 and 38: Trade Reviews Options, Money Market
Page 39 and 40: leave the euro significantly lower.
Page 41 and 42: open for further measures if requir
Page 43: EUR/SEK has broken sharply lower th
Page 47 and 48: Key Data Preview 115 105 95 85 75 6
Page 49 and 50: Key Data Preview Chart 5: Italian G
Page 51 and 52: Key Data Preview Source: Reuters Ec
Page 53 and 54: Key Data Preview Chart 13: Norwegia
Page 55 and 56: Key Data Preview Chart 17: UK Retai
Page 57 and 58: Economic Calendar: 15 February - 12
Page 59 and 60: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 61 and 62: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 63 and 64: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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