Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

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Economic Calendar: 12 - 19 February GMT Local Previous Forecast Consensus Wed 17/02 09:30 09:30 UK BoE MPC Minutes (cont) 09:30 09:30 Unemployment Change : Jan -15k -15k -10k 09:30 09:30 Unemployment Rate (Claimant) : Jan 5.0% 4.9% 5.0% 13:30 08:30 US Import Prices m/m : Jan 0.0% 1.0% 0.9% 13:30 08:30 Import Prices Ex Petroleum m/m : Jan 0.5% 0.5% n/a 13:30 08:30 Housing Starts : Jan 557k 580k 581k 14:15 09:15 Industrial Production m/m : Jan 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 14:15 09:15 Capacity Utilisation Rate : Jan 72.0% 72.8% 72.6% 17:45 12:45 Fed’s Plosser Speaks on the Financial Crisis in Philadelphia 19:00 14:00 FOMC Minutes 14:00 15:00 Belgium GDP (Flash) q/q : Q4 0.5% 0.3% n/a 14:00 15:00 GDP (Flash) y/y : Q4 -3.5% -1.1% n/a Thu 18/02 Japan BoJ Rate Announcement 08:30 09:30 Sweden CPI (nsa) m/m : Jan 0.2% -0.3% n/a 08:30 09:30 CPI (nsa) y/y : Jan 0.9% 1.0% n/a 08:30 09:30 CPIF m/m : Jan 0.2% -0.1% n/a 08:30 09:30 CPIF y/y : Jan 2.7% 2.7% n/a 08:30 09:30 Unemployment Rate (nsa) : Jan 8.6% 9.4% n/a 08:30 09:30 Neths Unemployment Rate : Jan 5.3% 5.5% n/a 09:00 10:00 Norway GDP (Mainland, sa) q/q : Q4 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 09:00 10:00 GDP (Mainland) y/y : Q4 -1.4% 0.6% n/a 09:00 10:00 GDP (Total, sa) q/q : Q4 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 09:00 10:00 GDP (Total) y/y : Q4 -0.7% -0.1% n/a 09:30 09:30 UK PSNCR : Jan GBP23.6bn GBP-17.8bn GBP-17.8bn 09:30 09:30 PSNB : Jan GBP15.7bn GBP-2.6bn GBP-2.8bn 11:00 11:00 CBI Monthly Industrial Trends : Feb Eurozone ECB Governing Council Meeting (No Rate Announcement) 12:00 07:00 Canada CPI m/m : Jan -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 12:00 07:00 CPI y/y : Jan 1.3% 2.1% 1.9% 12:00 07:00 BoC Core CPI m/m : Jan -0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 12:00 07:00 BoC Core CPI y/y : Jan 1.5% 2.1% 1.9% 13:30 08:30 US PPI (sa) m/m : Jan 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 13:30 08:30 PPI (sa) y/y : Jan 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 13:30 08:30 PPI Core (sa) m/m : Jan 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 13:30 08:30 PPI Core (sa) y/y : Jan 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13:30 08:30 Initial Claims 440k 450k n/a 15:00 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Survey : Feb 15.2 20.0 17.0 15:00 10:00 Leading Indicators m/m : Jan 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 16:00 11:00 EIA Oil Inventories 18:00 12:00 Fed’s Bullard Speaks to Economic Club of Memphis 00:00 (19/02) 20:00 Fed’s Lockhart Speaks on the Economic Outlook in Georgia Fri 19/02 07:00 08:00 Germany PPI m/m : Jan -0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 07:00 08:00 PPI y/y : Jan -5.2% -3.9% -3.9% 07:45 08:45 France Industry Survey : Feb 92 93 n/a 09:00 10:00 Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Flash) : Feb 52.4 52.6 52.8 09:00 10:00 PMI Services (Flash) : Feb 52.5 52.5 52.5 09:00 10:00 PMI Composite (Flash) : Feb 53.7 53.4 53.5 09:00 10:00 Current Account (nsa) : Dec EUR0.1bn EUR5.0bn n/a 09:00 10:00 Italy Industrial Orders y/y : Dec 0.0% -2.7% n/a 09:30 09:30 UK Retail Sales m/m : Jan 0.3% -0.6% -0.6% 09:30 09:30 Retail Sales y/y : Jan 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 13:00 08:00 US Fed’s Dudley Speaks at Economic Conference in Puerto Rico 13:30 08:30 CPI m/m : Jan 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 13:30 08:30 CPI y/y : Jan 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 13:30 08:30 Core CPI m/m : Jan 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13:30 08:30 Core CPI y/y : Jan 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Release dates and forecasts as at c.o.b. prior to the date of publication: See Daily Economic Spotlight for any revision Source: BNP Paribas Market Economics 12 February 2010 Market Mover 46 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Key Data Preview 115 105 95 85 75 65 Chart 1: Eurozone Growth & Sentiment EC Survey: Economic Sentiment GDP (% y/y, RHS) 55 -6 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro Seas. Adjusted Q4 09 (f) Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 GDP % q/q 0.4 0.4 -0.1 2.5 GDP % y/y -1.8 -4.0 -4.8 -5.0 Key Point: Survey data signal another robust q/q growth rate in Q4 although ‘hard’ data highlight the continued weakness of consumer demand. 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 BNP Paribas Forecast: Picking Up Eurozone: GDP (Q4 2009, ‘Flash’ Estimate) Release Date: Friday 12 February We forecast that eurozone GDP will continue to expand on a q/q basis in Q4, consistent with the high level of improvement in a range of leading indicators of activity. Our prediction of a q/q rate of increase of 0.4% is broadly in line with the pointers from the reliable survey data such as the PMI. The industrial sector remains pivotal to the rebound in the economy. Industrial production is forecast to expand by over 1% q/q for the second consecutive quarter after five consecutive contractions up to Q2 2009. Looking at GDP by expenditure components, exports will again expand on the basis of the trade figures released for Q4 to date. Domestic demand, however, remains weak. Private consumption has increased only once in the past six quarters on a q/q basis, in Q2 2009, boosted by car purchase incentives. Retail sales data for Q4 to date point to another contraction in Q4. Investment has fallen on a q/q basis for six straight quarters though the rate of contraction has been moderating. The y/y rate of contraction in GDP will decelerate markedly due to base effects and, for the same reason, a return to positive rates of change is likely from Q1 2010 (see chart). 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 Chart 2: German GDP -4.0 -7.0 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Reuters EcoWin Pro % y/y (RHS) % q/q Seas. Adjusted Q4 09 (f) Q3 09 Q2 09 Q1 09 GDP % q/q 0.4 0.7 0.4 -3.5 GDP % y/y -2.1 -4.8 -5.8 -6.7 Key Point: Surveys signal another solid q/q rise in GDP, driven by external rather than domestic demand. 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 BNP Paribas Forecast: External Boost Germany: GDP (Q4 2009, ‘Flash’ Estimate) Release Date: Friday 12 February We expect German GDP to rise on a q/q basis for the third straight quarter in Q4, albeit at a slower pace than Q3. The y/y rate of contraction in GDP will decelerate markedly due to base effects and a return to positive rates of change is highly probable from Q1 2010 onwards. The rebound in global manufacturing activity is pivotal to the pick-up in activity in Germany. Industrial production is on course to deliver another strong q/q increase in Q4. Consistent with the global upswing and continued poor state of domestic demand, the main contribution to growth in GDP in Germany will be net exports. The trade data for Q4 to date point to an unusually high contribution from net trade, outweighing what is likely to be another very weak quarter for private consumption. Private consumption fell by 0.9% q/q in Q3, the biggest fall in ten quarters. This follows two unusually strong quarters, driven by car purchase incentives. The latter are likely to have brought demand forward from 2010 which, combined with what we expect will be a further rise in unemployment this year, will weigh on spending. Retail sales data for Q4 point to the sixth q/q decline in seven quarters. Investment is likely to be subdued by high uncertainty and low capacity utilisation rates. Market Economics 12 February 2010 Market Mover 47 www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com
Page 1 and 2: Market Economics | Interest Rate St
Page 3 and 4: gave a few specific details on the
Page 5 and 6: More clarity was given on the seque
Page 7 and 8: Sovereign Debt: Time for Europe to
Page 9 and 10: The PS is more likely to face in th
Page 11 and 12: outlook for GDP and inflation. So h
Page 13 and 14: On inflation, Riksbank’s language
Page 15 and 16: Spending on other areas never did i
Page 17 and 18: would argue that resolving this iss
Page 19 and 20: Ramifications for Rates, Swap Sprea
Page 21 and 22: EUR: Demand for ECB’s Liquidity S
Page 23 and 24: EUR: Peripheral ASW Curves Re-Steep
Page 25 and 26: JGBs: Wait for Price Dips in Q2 •
Page 27 and 28: Table 1: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 29 and 30: Table 3: BNP Paribas' Inflation For
Page 31 and 32: Table 1: BNP Paribas Carry Analysis
Page 33 and 34: Update on curves 5/10y indices’ c
Page 35 and 36: Technical Analysis - Interest Rates
Page 37 and 38: Trade Reviews Options, Money Market
Page 39 and 40: leave the euro significantly lower.
Page 41 and 42: open for further measures if requir
Page 43 and 44: EUR/SEK has broken sharply lower th
Page 45: Economic Calendar: 12 - 19 February
Page 49 and 50: Key Data Preview Chart 5: Italian G
Page 51 and 52: Key Data Preview Source: Reuters Ec
Page 53 and 54: Key Data Preview Chart 13: Norwegia
Page 55 and 56: Key Data Preview Chart 17: UK Retai
Page 57 and 58: Economic Calendar: 15 February - 12
Page 59 and 60: Next week's T-Bills Supply Date Cou
Page 61 and 62: Economic Forecasts GDP Year 2009 20
Page 63 and 64: Market Coverage Market Economics Pa

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