Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Next week's T-Bills Supply
Date Country Issues Details
12/02 UK T-Bills Mar 2010 GBP 1bn
T-Bills May 2010
GBP 2bn
T-Bills Aug 2010
GBP 1.5bn
15/02 France BTF May 2010 EUR 3.5bn
BTF Aug 2010
EUR 2bn
BTF Feb 2011
EUR 2.5bn
Germany Bubills Aug 2010 (new) EUR 5bn
Neths DTC Apr 2010 EUR 1-2.5bn
DTC May 2010
EUR 0.5-1.5bn
DTC May 2010
EUR 0.5-1.5bn
DTC Dec 2010
EUR 1-2.5bn
16/02 Japan T-Bills Feb 2011 JPY 2.5tn
Spain Letras Feb 2011 15 Feb
Letras Aug 2011
15 Feb
Belgium TC May 2010 12 Feb
TC Feb 2011
12 Feb
US T-Bills May 2010 USD 25bn
T-Bills Aug 2010 (new) USD 28bn
FHLMC Bills 3-month & 6-month 12 Feb
FHLB Discount Notes
17/02 Japan T-Bills May 2010 JPY 5.7tn
Sweden T-Bills May 2010 SEK 15bn
Portugal BT Feb 2011 (new) EUR 1bn
US T-Bills 4-week 16 Feb
FNMA Bills 3-month & 6-month 12 Feb
18/02 FHLB Discount Notes
19/02 UK T-Bills 12 Feb
Sources: Treasuries, BNP Paribas
Comments and charts
• EGB gross supply increases slightly to EUR 20bn in
the week ahead from EUR 19bn in the past week. In 10y
duration-adjusted terms, it falls to EUR 9.6bn from EUR
16.8bn as the bulk of supply will take place in the 2y-5y
sector.
• Germany will launch a new Schatz Mar-12 for EUR
7bn on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Ireland will re-open
Gilts Jan-14 & Apr-20 for an expected size of EUR 1-
1.5bn. Spain will tap the longer end of the curve with the
re-opening of SPGB Jan-37 for an expected amount of
around EUR 2bn on Thursday. On the same day,
France will conduct its mid-month BTAN auctions and
inflation-linked bonds auctions too. More details will be
announced on Friday 12 February.
• Outside the eurozone, Japan, Denmark, Canada
and Sweden will also issue paper in the week ahead.
Next week's Eurozone Redemptions
Date Country Details Amount
15/02 Italy BOT 12mth EUR 8.2bn
15/02 Neths DTC EUR 5.8bn
15/02 Ireland T-Bills EUR 1.8bn
17/02 Germany Bubills EUR 7.0bn
18/02 France BTF EUR 11.0bn
18/02 Belgium TC EUR 5.2bn
19/02 Spain Letras EUR 11.7bn
Total Eurozone Short-term Redemption EUR 50.7bn
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
20
18
16
14
12
10
25
8
6
4
2
0
Chart 1: Investors’ Net Cash Flows
(EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Net Investors' Cash Flows
(EUR bn , 10y equivalent)
Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd Week of Mar 1st Week of Mar 8th
Chart 2: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Country (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
Germany Italy Portugal Belgium
France Spain Netherlands Austria
Finland Greece Ireland
Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd Week of Mar 1st Week of Mar 8th
Chart 3: EGB Gross Supply Breakdown by
Maturity (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
EGBs Gross Supply (EUR bn, 10y equivalent)
20
2-3-YR 5-7-YR 10-YR >10-YR
15
10
5
0
Week of Feb 15th Week of Feb 22nd Week of Mar 1st Week of Mar 8th
All Charts Source: BNP Paribas
Interest Rate Strategy 12 February 2010
Market Mover, Non-Objective Research Section
59
www.GlobalMarkets.bnpparibas.com