Market Mover - BNP PARIBAS - Investment Services India

Economic Forecasts
GDP
Year 2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 0.4 -2.4 2.8 -3.3 -3.8 -2.6 0.1 2.4 3.1 3.1 2.4
Eurozone 0.5 -3.9 1.3 -5.0 -4.8 -4.0 -1.6 1.2 1.6 1.3 0.9
Japan -1.2 -5.3 1.2 -8.9 -5.8 -5.1 -1.7 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8
World (2) 3.2 -0.8 3.9 -2.2 -1.9 -0.8 1.5 4.0 4.2 3.8 3.7
Industrial Production
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US -2.2 -9.7 4.1 2.0 5.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.4
Eurozone -1.7 -14.4 3.3 -17.7 -18.2 -15.0 -6.2 4.2 5.5 2.5 1.0
Japan -3.4 -22.3 15.6 -34.6 -27.8 -20.1 -4.7 28.1 19.2 11.5 6.9
Unemployment Rate
Year
2009 2010
(%) ’08 ’09 (1) ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 (1) Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 5.8 9.3 10.1 7.0 8.2 9.3 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.2 10.0
Eurozone 7.6 9.4 10.4 8.8 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.6
Japan 4.0 5.1 5.3 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2
CPI
Year
2009
2010
(% y/y) ’08 ’09 ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US 3.8 -0.4 2.5 0.0 -1.2 -1.6 1.4 2.8 2.9 2.4 2.0
Eurozone 3.3 0.3 1.3 1.0 0.2 -0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6
Japan 1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -0.1 -1.0 -2.2 -2.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.7 -0.6
Current Account
(% GDP) ’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1) General Government
(% GDP)
’08
Year
’09 (1) ’10 (1)
US -4.9 -3.5 -4.4 US (4) -3.1 -11.0 -10.2
Eurozone -1.6 -0.8 -0.8 Eurozone -1.9 -6.5 -6.9
Japan 3.2 2.7 3.0 Japan -6.7 -11.3 -9.5
Interest Rate Forecasts
Interest Rate (3)
Year
2009
2010
(%) ’08 ’09 ’10 (1) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 (1) Q2 (1) Q3 (1) Q4 (1)
US
Fed Funds Rate 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
3-month Rate 1.43 0.25 0.45 1.19 0.60 0.29 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.45
2-year yield 0.77 1.14 1.30 0.80 1.12 0.95 1.14 1.00 0.90 1.15 1.30
10-year yield 2.22 3.84 3.75 1.67 2.56 2.31 2.68 3.25 3.00 3.30 3.75
2y/10y Spread (bp) 145 270 245 87 144 136 154 225 210 215 245
Eurozone
Refinancing Rate 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
3-month Rate 2.50 1.00 1.10 1.50 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.65 1.10
2-year yield 1.74 1.37 1.50 1.23 1.38 1.28 1.37 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50
10-year yield 2.35 2.45 3.50 2.24 2.51 2.42 2.45 3.10 2.90 3.20 3.50
2y/10y Spread (bp) 61 108 200 101 113 114 108 185 165 170 200
Japan
O/N Call Rate 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
3-month Rate 0.10 0.10 0.35 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.45 0.45 0.40 0.35
2-year yield 0.40 0.15 0.45 0.41 0.32 0.25 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.45
10-year yield 0.71 0.47 1.70 0.78 0.71 0.60 0.47 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70
2y/10y Spread (bp) 31 32 125 37 39 35 32 120 125 125 125
Footnotes: (1) Forecast (2) Country weights used to construct world growth are those in the IMF World Economic Outlook Update
October 2009 (3) End Period (4) Fiscal year Figures are y/y percentage change unless otherwise indicated
Source: BNP Paribas
Market Economics / Interest Rate Strategy 12 February 2010
Market Mover
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