Middle East / North Africa and the Millennium Development Goals ...

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Middle East / North Africa and the Millennium Development Goals Figure 23: Trends in the implementation of MDG8 / Targets 13 and 15 (More generous ODA) Source: Designed by the author, based on the data in Table A11, Annex Note: Countries for which no data are available have been omitted. The LDCs in the MENA region are underlined The indicator for this target is the unemployment rate among 15- to 24year-olds. Productive employment for youth Target 16 is to develop and implement – in cooperation with developing countries – strategies for decent and productive work for young people. The indicator for this target is the unemployment rate among 15- to 24year-olds. For most MENA countries no information is available on progress made towards this target, but the very few data that have been published are alarming. In Egypt, the official unemployment rate among 15- to 24-yearolds rose from 26 to 34 % between 1990 and 2001, and in Bahrain from 6 to 13 %. In 1990 youth unemployment in Algeria had already reached a level of 39 %, which has most probably risen since then, because the overall unemployment has also increased sharply. The situation in Morocco is German Development Institute 99
100 Markus Loewe similar: there 31 % of the 15- to 24-year-olds were jobless in 1990. In 2001, the country had a youth unemployment rate of 37 %, the figure for Mauritania was 45 %, and for Syria 73 %. No data exist for the 1990 situation in these three countries. On average, roughly 50 % of the 15- to 24year-olds in the MENA region are likely to have been without work in 1990 and the figure has most probably risen since then (see Table A11, Annex). Unemployment in general is very widespread in the MENA region. Ali and Elbadawi (2000) estimate that one person out of five potential laborforce participants in the region is unemployed. At the end of the 1990s the official unemployment rate in Tunisia, Syria, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Oman was roughly 15 %; 20 % in Morocco and Lebanon, and over 25 % in Algeria, Libya, and Yemen. The smaller Gulf states have official unemployment rates of something between 3 and 8 %. In fact, however, it is likely that a far larger share of the labor force is looking for work. In Bahrain e.g. the percentage is apt to be closer to 16 than 3 %. Likewise, in Jordan the unemployment rate is likely to be above 30 % rather than 14 %, as official statistics say. In Egypt, it is closer to 25 than to 12 %, and the Palestinian Territories are assumed to have a rate of more than 50 %, not the 18 % officially stated (Loewe 2004, 430). During the 1990s a high number of jobs were created in the MENA region. The growth elasticity of job creation was 0.7. This means that the growth in the number of jobs per percentage point of economic growth was 0.7. A similarly high ratio was otherwise noted only for Latin America. The figure for the European Union was 0.3, for the US and for South and East Asia (without China) 0.4, and for China 0.1 (Gardner 2003). All the same, unemployment in the MENA countries rose appreciably during the 1990s: from an average of 15 % in 1990 to 20 % in 2001. On average the number of jobs rose by 2.6 % per annum; but at the same time, the labor force was growing by 2.9 % per annum. The reason for this is that cohorts with high birth rates were entering the labor market. Birth rates are, however, now showing a downward trend, which means in effect that population growth is declining in nearly all countries in the region. This new trend, however, has not yet translated into lower labor force growth rates. This will happen only in some years, and the decline will, at least initially, be slow. Until then, millions of school graduates will be entering the labor market, and the labor force of all MENA countries will grow German Development Institute
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Middle East / North Africa and the
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Studies Deutsches Institut für Ent
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Foreword This study is the English
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Contents Abbreviations Executive Su
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Bibliography 163 List of Interview
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Figure 15: Trends in the implementa
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Table A15: Commitment of the govern
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GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Tech
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UN HABITAT United Nations Human Set
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43 German Development Institute Ove
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Markus Loewe ANND (Arab NGO Network
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Markus Loewe - (2003a): Länderberi
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Markus Loewe Clemens, M. / Ch. Kenn
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Markus Loewe Fues, T. (2005): Entwi
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Markus Loewe IMF / OECD / UN / Worl
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Markus Loewe - (2004d): Maßnahmen
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Markus Loewe Pogge, T. (2003): Ein
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Markus Loewe Schüler, D. / S. Klas
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Markus Loewe - (2004a): Human Devel
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Markus Loewe - (2004g): Kingdom of
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Markus Loewe Georg Schüller, Count
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Berichte und Gutachten 11/04 Scholz
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Discussion Paper 16/2006 Brüntrup,
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