Middle East / North Africa and the Millennium Development Goals ...

Middle East / North Africa and the Millennium Development Goals
3.4 Reducing child mortality (MDG4)
Most MENA countries have succeeded in reducing infant mortality. Here
they have made greater progress than e.g. Eastern Europe and Central
Asia, sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia. As a whole, the region could
therefore succeed in implementing MDG4, although there continue to be
marked disparities between single countries.
Four MENA countries have already reached MDG4: In Egypt child mortality
declined between 1990 and 2002 from 104 to 39 per thousand live
births, while in the Palestinian Territories the corresponding figure declined
from 53 to 24. By 2001, Libya had reduced child mortality from 42
to 19 per thousand, the corresponding figure for Oman being 30 to 13 (see
Table A7, Annex). Iran, Qatar, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and
the UAE are also likely to reach MDG4 (see Figure 8). This is also conceivable
for Algeria, Bahrain, and Jordan – but only under the condition
that theses countries step up their efforts. Over the past ten years these
countries have not made sufficient progress in implementing MDG4, but
their child mortality rates are already relatively low by international and
regional comparison (UNICEF 2004, 10).
On the other hand, it is unlikely that Iraq, Mauritania, Lebanon, Sudan,
and Yemen will reach MDG4 until 2015. In Iraq, child mortality has even
risen since 1990 from 50 to 125 per 1000. In Mauritania and Lebanon, the
figure has remained almost constant at 180 and 35 per 1000, respectively.
Yemen and Sudan have succeeded in reducing their infant and child mortality
rates; however, looked at it realistically, the progress they have made
does not appear sufficient to reach MDG4 by 2015, especially in view of
the fact that their child mortality rates stand very high at 114 and 97 per
1000 live births, respectively (see Diagrams 8 and 9).
Moreover, there is no reason to assume that the trends of the past 15 years
will necessarily continue unabated until 2015. Not unlike the case of efforts
to raise school enrolment rates, efforts to reduce infant and child
mortality rates are restricted to a relatively narrow, predefined path. This is
also pointed out by Clemens, Kenney, and Moss (2004, 20 ff.), who compared
the child mortality rates of 176 countries for the years between 1980
and 2000. They found that this development has a relatively uniform
course: At first, child mortality rates decline at a relatively rapid pace.
However, the trend levels off once a threshold of roughly 30–40 per 1000
German Development Institute 69