to view Short Range Transit Plan FY 2007/2008 - Tri Delta Transit

Operating Statistics & Budget ProjectionsFare revenues tend to follow patronage; in FY 2007-08, a 10%-12%increase in total fixed route revenue is projected. Fixed routepatronage is projected to increase 2% annually in 2008-09 andbeyond. All other revenue sources including TDA, STA, FTA and othersources are projected to grow at the MTC-sanctioned rate of 3.5%annually except for Regional Measure 2 bridge tolls, which areprojected to grow 1.5% annually. Operating expenses are alsoprojected to grow 3.5% annually, roughly at the rate of inflation exceptfor fuel, which is projected to increase at 6% annually.Transit funding sources include passenger fares, on-vehicle advertisingrevenues, state Transportation Development Act (TDA) funds, StateTransit Assistance (STA) funds, Bay Air Quality Management District(BAQAMD) special project funds, Regional Measure 2 (RM02) bridgetolls for Route 70, Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Section 5307formula and 5303 planning funds.There may be capacity within the existing Dial-a-Ride operation toabsorb up to 25% more passengers than presently are scheduled,particularly if Tri Delta Transit takes full advantage of improvingautomated dispatching capabilities. The Antioch Senior Bus Programmay have capacity for approximately 10% more passengers withoutsignificantly increasing revenue hours. The 10-year operating planprojected that peak vehicles operated will increase from 19 during FY2006-07 to 23 during FY 2007-8, then remaining the same during theremainder of the 10-year period.A 10-year revenue and expense analysis is provided in Tables 5.3through 5.6. Total annual revenues available for operations areprojected to incre ase from $20.2 million in FY 2007-08 to over $29.3million in FY 2018. TDA, STA and Measure C revenues, which togetherprovide n early 70% of the operating budget, are fore cast by MTC togrow 3.5% annually through F Y 2018. The average annual growth rateall revenue sources combined is 3.8% over the ten-year period.Operating expenses are projected to increase from $ 20.2 million in FY2008 to $ 29.3 million in FY 2018. This assumes an a verage 3.8%increase in the cost per hour above FY 2007 actual e xpenses, allowingfor service increa ses during FY 2007-08. This is cons idered a “bestcase” inflation assumption, barring unforeseen increases in employeehealth benefits, fuel and insurance costs. Higher inflation rates fromyear to year could necessitate minor service reductions to maintain abalanced budget. While ECCTA maintains a 20% farebox recoveryobjective for the fixed route system, an expectation of 15%-16%reflects a more realistic expectation of performance in the next severalyears. Triennial fare increases yielding 20% net higher fareboxrevenues are suggested in FY 2010 and FY 2015 to remain above the15% farebox recovery threshold. It may be appropriate to revise thefare structure entirely when eBART begins operating, though what yearthis will occur is not yet certain.96