the Symposium on Wheats for More Tropical Environments - cimmyt

304<strong>the</strong>ir daily food supply. The extent ofwheat imports and <strong>the</strong>ir rapid increaseunderlie <strong>the</strong> current interest inproducing wheat for <strong>the</strong> more tropicalenvironments.In this paper. a number of questionswill be addressed. What are <strong>the</strong> majortrends in wheat consumption in <strong>the</strong>tropical belt? How dependent aretropical countries on imported wheat?What are <strong>the</strong> major factors promoting<strong>the</strong>se trends? How can we judge if <strong>the</strong>setrends are in <strong>the</strong> economic interests of<strong>the</strong> country? What policy alternativesare available to governments whoseobjective is to reduce wheat imports?Finally. some of <strong>the</strong> major economicissues will be outlined which must beaddressed in deciding on a domesticwheat production program.Overview of Trends in WheatConsumption and Importsin <strong>the</strong> Tropical BeltIn this paper. <strong>the</strong> conventionaldefinition of <strong>the</strong> tropiCS will be used.Le .• <strong>the</strong> area lying between <strong>the</strong> Tropicof Cancer (23°N) and <strong>the</strong> Tropic ofCapricorn (23°S). To a remarkableextent. <strong>the</strong>se latitudes define <strong>the</strong> areasof <strong>the</strong> world where wheat is notcurrently grown commercially ataltitudes below 1.000 meters (Sudan is<strong>the</strong> only exception). A number ofcountries are dissected by <strong>the</strong>selatitudinal delineations. Countries havebeen excluded from <strong>the</strong> analysis thathave large wheat-producing areas aboveor below <strong>the</strong>se lines (Le.. India. SaudiArabia and China). O<strong>the</strong>r countrieswhich are largely tropical. such asSudan and Burma. have been included.Brazil is a more difficult case; most ofits wheat is now grown south of 23°Slatitude. but future expanSion will takeplace only in <strong>the</strong> more tropical zones.Hence. Brazil has been arbitrarilyincluded as a tropical country. With<strong>the</strong>se definitions <strong>the</strong> tropical beltconsists of <strong>the</strong> follOWing countries:• Africa-all Sub-Saharan Africa exceptLesotho and South Africa• Asia-<strong>the</strong> two Yemens. Sri Lanka andSou<strong>the</strong>ast Asia, from Burma to <strong>the</strong>Pacific countries• Latin America-Guatemala to Braziland Paraguay. including <strong>the</strong>Caribbean countriesThis group of tropical countries has apopulation of about one billion people.roughly equally diVided between Africa.Asia and Latin America. In <strong>the</strong> period1980 to 1982. <strong>the</strong>y produced 4.3 milliontons of wheat annually. most of it inBrazil and Ethiopia. This was only about2% of total wheat production in <strong>the</strong>Third World and less than 1% of worldwheat production. At <strong>the</strong> same time.<strong>the</strong>se countries imported about 20million tons of wheat. about one-third ofall wheat imported by developingcountries. That is. imports suppliedabout 83% of total wheat consumptionin <strong>the</strong> tropical belt (Table 1).From 1980 to 1982. <strong>the</strong>re were 40tropical countries that consumed over100.000 tons of wheat each. Only six of<strong>the</strong>se countries (Ethiopia. Kenya. Sudan.Zimbabwe. Yemen Democratic Republicand Brazil) produced over 100.000 tonsof wheat. mostly in highland areas(Table 1). OutSide of this group. almostall were entirely dependent on importedwheat. By <strong>the</strong> early 19808. nine of <strong>the</strong>secountries were importing close to onemillion tons or more of wheat annually(Nigeria. Indonesia. Sri Lanka.Philippines. Vietnam. Cuba. Venezuela.Peru and Brazil).Per capita consumption of wheat in <strong>the</strong>tropics varies substantially from lessthan 5 kg per year in Thailand to over100 kg per year in Cuba. Per capitaconsumption is much higher in LatinAmerican tropical countries (50 kg/year)