the Symposium on Wheats for More Tropical Environments - cimmyt

314ConclusionsWheat consumption will undoubtedlycontinue to expand in tropicalcountries. However, if governmentspursue policies that remove incentivesto consume wheat, this expansion willbe relatively slow and will reflect anatural tendency by consumers todiversify diets as <strong>the</strong>ir incomesincrease.Governments that wish to reducedependence on imported wheat shouldconsider domestic production of wheatas only one among a set of policyalternatives. A decision to producewheat domestically should be taken in<strong>the</strong> context of <strong>the</strong> wider food policyenvironment, and after a carefulassessment of <strong>the</strong> comparativeadvantage of wheat. It is impossible tomake general statements about <strong>the</strong>economics of wheat production in <strong>the</strong>tropics. However, it appears that <strong>the</strong>best prospects for efficient wheatproduction in <strong>the</strong> warmer tropics arewhere wheat will enable two or eventhree crops a year, where moisturelimits production of o<strong>the</strong>r crops orwhere small-scale irrigation is available,and where wheat can be producedusing <strong>the</strong> labor and machinery alreadyutilized by farmers in <strong>the</strong> production ofo<strong>the</strong>r crops.These economic issues should beanalyzed at an early stage, before <strong>the</strong>commitment of a large amount ofresources to a domestic wheat researchand production program.AcknowledgementsThe author wishes to thank EdithHesse de Polanco for valuableassistance, in data analysis for thispaper.References1. Agricultural Extension andResearch Liaison Service. 1978.Report on wheat production andmarketing in Nigeria. AhmaduBello University, Nigeria.2. Andrae, G., and B. Beckman. 1983.The wheat trap: Bread andunderdevelopment in Nigeria.University of Stockholm, Sweden.(Unpublished report.)3. Byerlee, D. 1983. The increasingrole of wheat consumption andimports in <strong>the</strong> developing world.Economics Paper 83/5. CIMMYT,Mexico.4. Byerlee, D. Comparative advantageand policy incentives for wheat inEcuador. Economics paper.CIMMYT, Mexico. (In press.)5. Byerlee, D. 1984. The politicaleconomy of Third World foodimports: The case of wheat.CIMMYT, Mexico. (Unpublishedpaper.)6. Byerlee, D., and G. Varughese.1981. The potential for commercialwheat production in Senegal: Someissues. Report submitted to <strong>the</strong>Senegal Institute of AgriculturalResearch (lSRA).7. Carbonell, W.J., and H. Rothman.1977. An implicit food policy:Wheat consumption changes inVenezuela. Food Policy 2(4):305­317.8. De Rafols, W. 1982. Action Ble-DireProject: Economic analysis update.USAID, Mali. (Draft paper.)9. Dudley, L., and R.J. Sandilands.1975. The side effects of foreignaid: The case of PL480 wheat inColombia. Economic Developmentand Cultural Change 23(2):325-336