the Symposium on Wheats for More Tropical Environments - cimmyt

307wheat consumption). However, <strong>the</strong>negative coefficient on <strong>the</strong> quadraticterm for per capita income indicatesthat consumption stabilizes at about 45kg per capita at a per capita income ofabout US$ 3000. i.e.. about <strong>the</strong> incomelevel of Singapore and Venezuela.Wheat consumption is also negativelyrelated to <strong>the</strong> consumer price of bread.A 10% increase in bread prices leads toa decrease in wheat consumption of6%. Food aid also seems to influenceconsumption. As expected. thosecountries which import wheat as foodaid tend to consume more wheat thano<strong>the</strong>r countries at a similar level ofincome. More interesting is <strong>the</strong> positiveeffect of wheat imported as food aid in<strong>the</strong> past. An early objective of food aidwas to develop markets for surpluswheat stocks of <strong>the</strong> major exporters.particularly <strong>the</strong> USA. Finally. wheatconsumption is negatively related todomestic production of cereals which.in this group of countries. does notinclude wheat: however. this effect isnot very strong. An increase in localcereal production of 1% leads to areduction of wheat imports of only0.27%. FollOWing is a more detailedexamination of each of <strong>the</strong>se factorsinfluencing wheat consumption.Incomes and urbanizationWheat consumption in tropicalcountries has initially been establishedin urban areas (3.12.14.15.21). In mostcountries, <strong>the</strong> consumption of wheat inurban areas is at least double that ofrural areas. Figure 2 demonstrates that,as per capita national wheatconsumption increases. <strong>the</strong> differencebetween rural and urban consumptiontends to decline. Likewise wheat,usually as bread. is initially consumedby middle to high-income groups but.with increasing levels of consumption,it becomes more important to lowerincomegroups. In most tropicalcountries. wheat consumption hasincreased with rising incomes fasterthan any o<strong>the</strong>r food staple. Wheat and.to some extent. rice substitute forcoarse grains and roots and tubers,whose consumption often declines withrising incomes (see <strong>the</strong> example ofBrazil in Figure 3).Table 3. Estimated cross-country regression equation for wheat consumption intropical countries, 1979 to 1981WHEATCON = 25.22 +.027 GNP - .462 x 10- 5 GNP2 - .178 PRBREAD -(,0053) * * (,118 x 10-5)** (.052)**.058 DCP +.861 FA +.091 CUMFA(,020)** (.414)* (,036)**WHEATCON = Wheat consumption per capita (kg/person, 1979-81 average)GNP = Gross national product per capita (1980 US$)OCP = Domestic cereal production per capita (kg/person, 1979-81 average)FA = Wheat imports as food aid per capita (kg/person, 1979-81 average)CUMFA = Historically cumulative food-aid wheat imports (kg/person, 1955-75)PRBREAD = Price of bread, 1979-81 (US cents/kg)n = 39, R2 = 0.81Standard error of estimates are given in brackets*, ** Significant at <strong>the</strong> 5 0 /0 and 10/0 levels, respectively