the Symposium on Wheats for More Tropical Environments - cimmyt

Comments'D.L. WiDkelmaDll, DIrector, Economics Program, CIMMYT, Mexic&.339I have been asked to comm.ent fur<strong>the</strong>ron <strong>the</strong> demand side of wheats for moretropical environments. It has beendemonstrated over <strong>the</strong> past five yearsthat wheat is a surprisingly plasticcrop. Given <strong>the</strong> evidence that we canincrease <strong>the</strong> productivity of wheats in<strong>the</strong> tropics. <strong>the</strong> question must be asked:To what extent and where should wedo so? Where will future wheatproduction be more promising. andwhere will it be less so?Dr. Harrington has presented a way toget at <strong>the</strong> fundamentals of <strong>the</strong> issue.through assessing <strong>the</strong> real value of <strong>the</strong>resources that might be involved in <strong>the</strong>production of wheat. He discussed <strong>the</strong>application of comparative advantage(<strong>the</strong>se proceedings). based on atechnique called domestic resource costanalysis. One result of his analysis inparts of Thailand was <strong>the</strong> estimation of<strong>the</strong> yield range needed to make wheatcompetitive with its alternatives, bothfrom <strong>the</strong> perspective of <strong>the</strong> fanner andfrom <strong>the</strong> perspective of society. Indifferent local environments. verydifferent yield levels appear to beneeded to make wheat competitive.These differences are largely dependenton <strong>the</strong> alternatives to wheat and on <strong>the</strong>extent to which wheat productioninfluences preceding and followingcrops.Let us consider <strong>the</strong> demand for wheatand for wheat research in <strong>the</strong> tropics.We have heard mention of wheat pricesbeing set by policymakers whoseconcern is especially for urbanpopulations. We have been told thatsome countries need to dispose ofwheat surpluses, and that. in somecases. <strong>the</strong>y may have a desire to createdependencies; o<strong>the</strong>rs saw generosity in<strong>the</strong> subsidizing of wheat for developingcountries. We have also heard aboutpolicies which perhaps reflect anignorance about <strong>the</strong> potentials ofenvironments.Surely all of <strong>the</strong>se considerations play apart. in greater or lesser measure. indecisions affecting <strong>the</strong> role of wheat in<strong>the</strong> more tropical regions of <strong>the</strong> world.Beyond this. however. Dr. Byerleehelped us to consider wheatconsumption from o<strong>the</strong>r perspectives(<strong>the</strong>se proceedings). He pointed outsome apparent inevitabil1tiesinfluencing this consumption.Urbanization and rising incomeshistorically favor wheat consumption.Beyond this. he identified someconcerns-rural income distribution.diets for poor consumers. and foodsecurity-whose influence on wheatutilization must result from carefuljudgments of society-wide issues. Healso discussed exchange rateovervaluation and relative prices whichdepart markedly from those on <strong>the</strong>international market. The utilization ofwheat in tropical countries emergesfrom a mixture of such considerations.It is important to realize. however. thata rising demand for wheat is anapparently inevitable consequence ofurbanization-people want foods whichare more convenient-and of risingincomes-people can insist on morediversity in <strong>the</strong>ir diets. Income is anespecially important factor indeveloping countries. Remember <strong>the</strong>graph describing circumstances innor<strong>the</strong>rn Brazil (Byerlee. <strong>the</strong>seproceedings), shOWing <strong>the</strong> relationshipbetween income level and <strong>the</strong>consumption of particular commodities.As income increased. <strong>the</strong> directconsumption of maize declined. acommon response. but <strong>the</strong> per capitaconsumption of rice and wheatincreased.