The Global Economic Impact of Private Equity Report 2008 - World ...

Table 6: Determinants of exit success for individual transactionsThis table shows the results from logit regressions of the likelihood of a certain exit type on deal and sponsor characteristicsas well as country and time fixed effects. “Successful exit” is defined by IPO or acquisition by strategic or financial buyer.“Bankrupt” is defined as bankruptcy or financial reorganization/restructuring. For the deal type the omitted variable is“Independent private firm,” and for the time fixed effects the omitted category is “1970-1984.” For the dummy variables, thecoefficients are the change in probability (in %) of changing the value from 0 to 1, and for the other variables it is the effect ofan marginal increase of one unit. P-values are calculated using White robust standard errors (STDE).Successful exit Successful exit Bankrupt by 11/2007Dependent variable: within 24 months within 84 months (1970-2002 obs only)(1) (2) (3)dY/dX STDE P-value dY/dX STDE P-value dY/dX STDE P-valuePublic-to-private -1.30 0.97 0.183 2.64 2.56 0.302 0.56 0.76 0.461Divisional 1.15 0.59 0.051 11.70 1.46 0.000 -0.83 0.42 0.050Secondary 2.69 0.91 0.003 16.21 2.47 0.000 0.87 0.77 0.258Distressed -1.57 1.57 0.318 1.37 5.51 0.804 5.22 1.96 0.008Financial sponsor dummy 5.49 0.62 0.000 24.97 2.02 0.000 1.35 0.51 0.007Yrs of sponsorexperience 0.22 0.04 0.000 0.93 0.11 0.000 0.00 0.03 0.895Syndicated deal 1.53 0.62 0.013 11.91 1.47 0.000 -0.42 0.43 0.331Public fund sponsor -3.34 0.66 0.000 -7.87 1.94 0.000 1.28 0.76 0.090US 1.86 1.10 0.090 3.73 2.83 0.188 5.78 1.51 0.000Canada 3.10 2.58 0.228 3.83 5.63 0.496 7.26 5.04 0.149UK 1.16 1.26 0.357 5.10 3.11 0.101 7.26 2.86 0.011Continental Europe 1.03 1.24 0.404 -0.08 3.10 0.979 0.55 1.59 0.729Scandinavia 1.52 1.83 0.405 11.17 4.29 0.009 2.76 2.93 0.3461985-89 -1.88 2.01 0.351 3.08 4.21 0.465 -0.29 1.13 0.8011990-95 -0.38 2.18 0.861 12.64 3.92 0.001 -0.23 1.08 0.8351996-99 -2.19 1.98 0.269 2.31 3.76 0.538 0.19 1.09 0.8602000-02 -5.27 1.74 0.002 2.36 4.03 0.557 -1.21 1.04 0.2442003-05 -2.38 2.04 0.243N=13,905 Ps.R 2 = 0.03 N=7,915 Ps.R 2 = 0.05 N=10,847 Ps.R 2 = 0.04(4) (5) (6)dY/dX STDE P-value dY/dX STDE P-value dY/dX STDE P-valuePublic-to-private -2.83 0.89 0.001 -5.92 2.60 0.023 0.31 0.80 0.700Divisional 0.49 0.59 0.404 8.84 1.49 0.000 -0.86 0.43 0.045Secondary 1.25 0.86 0.144 10.49 2.58 0.000 0.75 0.79 0.341Distressed -1.54 1.56 0.323 2.69 5.74 0.640 5.29 1.98 0.007Financial sponsor dummy 4.32 0.72 0.000 21.35 2.28 0.000 1.30 0.54 0.016Yrs of sponsor experience 0.17 0.04 0.000 0.68 0.11 0.000 -0.00 0.03 0.982Syndicated deal 0.82 0.60 0.176 8.71 1.52 0.000 -0.48 0.44 0.281Public fund sponsor -2.91 0.68 0.000 -5.43 1.99 0.006 1.36 0.77 0.079Log EV, imputed 1.07 0.22 0.000 5.24 0.52 0.000 0.10 0.16 0.530US 1.40 1.09 0.198 0.98 2.88 0.733 5.71 1.51 0.000Canada 2.76 2.51 0.272 1.88 5.67 0.740 7.28 5.05 0.149UK 1.50 1.28 0.240 6.42 3.15 0.041 7.21 2.84 0.011Continental Europe 0.86 1.21 0.480 -1.28 3.11 0.681 0.52 1.58 0.743Scandinavia 1.18 1.77 0.503 8.57 4.37 0.050 2.67 2.90 0.3581985-89 -2.33 1.89 0.217 0.47 4.19 0.910 -0.34 1.12 0.7631990-95 -0.15 2.21 0.945 13.76 3.94 0.000 -0.22 1.08 0.8411996-99 -1.83 2.00 0.358 4.08 3.78 0.281 0.22 1.09 0.8382000-02 -4.84 1.76 0.006 4.92 4.09 0.229 -1.18 1.04 0.2582003-05 -1.99 2.05 0.332N=13,883 Ps.R 2 = 0.03 N=7912 Ps.R 2 = 0.06 N=10,834 Ps.R 2 = 0.04The Global Economic Impact of Private Equity Report 2008 Large-sample studies: Demography 21