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War and Peace in Qajar Persia: Implications Past and ... - Oguzlar.az

War and Peace in Qajar Persia: Implications Past and ... - Oguzlar.az

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36 Manoutchehr M. Esk<strong>and</strong>ari-<strong>Qajar</strong>Th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g herself safer now, <strong>Persia</strong> pursued her struggle aga<strong>in</strong>st Russia <strong>in</strong>the hope of rega<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g lost ground while Engl<strong>and</strong>, <strong>in</strong> the person of Lord M<strong>in</strong>to,the new Governor General of India, was already th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g of ways to extricateherself from the obligation to support <strong>Persia</strong>’s struggle aga<strong>in</strong>st Russia.Aga<strong>in</strong>, <strong>in</strong> another turn of events, European political considerations <strong>in</strong>terferedwith <strong>Persia</strong>’s <strong>in</strong>terests. In 1809, Gudovitch, sens<strong>in</strong>g his position to bemore precarious than he had led the <strong>Persia</strong>ns to believe, offered a negotiatedsettlement. This time it was Brita<strong>in</strong> that <strong>in</strong>sisted that the war must cont<strong>in</strong>ue<strong>and</strong> that <strong>Persia</strong> should fight on. Engl<strong>and</strong> did so out of concern over Russia’sstrength <strong>in</strong> the European theatre should Russia be rid of the problem of fight<strong>in</strong>g<strong>Persia</strong>. <strong>Persia</strong> reluctantly agreed, but Mirza Shafi made these remarks toHarford Jones show<strong>in</strong>g the degree of calculation the <strong>Persia</strong>ns were engaged<strong>in</strong> at every turn of the road: “Very well, but suppos<strong>in</strong>g that th<strong>in</strong>gs turn outbadly <strong>in</strong> Europe <strong>and</strong> you leave us ‘<strong>in</strong> a tight spot.’ Today we can make peaceif we want to. But what will happen tomorrow if we trust you <strong>and</strong> if yourgovernment is at variance with you?” 46In fact this is exactly what happened <strong>in</strong> the com<strong>in</strong>g years. Jones was replacedby Sir Gore Ouseley, <strong>and</strong> Gudovitch with General Torm<strong>az</strong>ov. While Ouseleywas follow<strong>in</strong>g the new policy of his country, Torm<strong>az</strong>ov was lay<strong>in</strong>g down thenew <strong>and</strong> tougher l<strong>in</strong>e of his. In Europe, <strong>in</strong> the meantime, Russia <strong>and</strong> Brita<strong>in</strong>had allied <strong>in</strong> the Third Coalition aga<strong>in</strong>st Napoleon. Am<strong>in</strong>i states that thisnew change <strong>in</strong> British policy was to “have disastrous effects on <strong>Persia</strong>,” as<strong>Persia</strong> now found herself ab<strong>and</strong>oned aga<strong>in</strong> without the military support sheneeded to see her struggle with Russia through. It is here that Abbas Mirzamade the most fateful decision of his campaigns. Assess<strong>in</strong>g his chances at apossible military victory <strong>in</strong> one decisive battle, he took a chance <strong>and</strong> engagedthe enemy at Asl<strong>and</strong>uz, despite be<strong>in</strong>g outnumbered <strong>and</strong> outgunned by theRussians. The result was defeat <strong>and</strong> with this defeat, <strong>Persia</strong> was no longer<strong>in</strong> a position to engage the Russians alone. Hav<strong>in</strong>g lost France’s support <strong>and</strong>Engl<strong>and</strong>’s, <strong>Persia</strong> had to sue for peace. The result<strong>in</strong>g Treaty of Golestan,negotiated with the assistance of Sir Gore Ouseley, was a terrible blow to<strong>Persia</strong>. In it <strong>Persia</strong> ceded control over all the Khanates north of the Arasexcept for Nakhtchevan <strong>and</strong> Erivan, <strong>and</strong> given the outcome of this treaty,questions were raised by <strong>Persia</strong> on the role of Ouseley <strong>in</strong> see<strong>in</strong>g to Russian<strong>and</strong> thus British <strong>in</strong>terests rather than to those of <strong>Persia</strong>, which by treaty hewas supposed to help protect. 47RETHINKING QAJAR DECISION-MAKING USINGPROSPECT THEORY AND RATIONAL DECISION-MAKINGTHEORYThough the outcome was negative for the <strong>Persia</strong>n side, little <strong>in</strong> her decisionmak<strong>in</strong>gprocess, based on the evidence, could legitimately fault <strong>Persia</strong> forhav<strong>in</strong>g taken fewer precautions than necessary, or neglected <strong>in</strong>formation she

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