The Himalaya by the Numbers: A Statistical Analysis - Himalayan ...

them. In fact during the late 1980s, these other routes had slightly more activity than
the traditional routes as this was just before commercial climbing became popular. But
by the late 1990s, these other routes were almost abandoned. Currently there are only
occasional attempts on the north face and west ridge, two of which ended disastrously
during snow board/ski descents (Marco Siffredi disappeared in the Hornbein Couloir
in 2002 and Tomas Olsson fell to his death after pulling out an anchor in the Great
Couloir in 2006). The east side is almost entirely ignored due to the difficult and
dangerous ice seracs on the Kangschung face. The only remaining unclimbed route is
“fantasy ridge,” a steep knife-edged icy ridge that joins into the north east ridge from
the east side of Everest at the bottom of the Kangschung Glacier.
Chart C-3d shows the steady increase in popularity of the commercial routes (thus
commercial climbing) on Ama Dablam, Cho Oyu, and Everest. From 1997-2004, the
activity on Cho Oyu leveled off, perhaps indicating that more commer cial clients were
attempting Everest without having prior experience on other 8000ers such as Cho
Oyu, perhaps due to fewer novice Everesters having both the time and finances to
fund two 8000m expeditions and instead were training on less expensive peaks such
as Aconcagua or Denali (or skipping high-altitude training altogether). From 2005 Cho
Oyu activity has again increased sharply.
Table C-4 summarizes the current trends in climbing activity since 1990. The overall
annual increase in climbing activity from 1990 to 2006 for all peaks is 3.3%, but when
the ACE commercial routes are removed, there is an annual decrease of 2.3%. Ama
Dablam has shown the largest increase in activity with 10.7% growth per year. Cho
Oyu and Everest are not far behind, with 9.1% and 6.1% annual growth, respectively.
Most everything else has been in decline.
Regional Activity
For the purpose of analyzing climbing activity by geographical regions, the Nepal
Himalaya is divided into seven regions:
The regional locations of all of the peaks are given in Appendix A. The weather
patterns and snow conditions differ from region to region with certain regions having
more favorable and safer climbing conditions depending on the season. The later
chapters on ascent and death analyses probe deeper into these regional differences.
18 Analysis of Climbing Activity
Members Above BC Average Annual
Yearly Change
1990 2006
All Peaks 1020 1772 3.3
All Peaks w/o AMAD-CHOY-EVER Commercial Routes 678 453 -2.3
6000ers 129 373 6.4
6000ers w/o AMAD Commercial Route 71 45 -2.7
7000ers 246 129 -3.7
8000ers 645 1270 4.1
8000ers w/o CHOY-EVER Commercial Routes 361 279 -1.5
AMAD Commercial Route (SW Ridge) 58 328 10.7
CHOY Commercial Route (NW Ridge) 127 560 9.1
EVER Commercial Routes (S Col-SE Ridge, N Col-NE Ridge) 157 431 6.1
Table C-4: Current trends in climbing activity from 1990-2006
(average annual change in members above base camp)