The Himalaya by the Numbers: A Statistical Analysis - Himalayan ...

Commercial climbing has become increasingly popular since 1990 and has con tributed
significantly to the numbers of climbers going above base camp (53% of all climbers
above base camp were on the commercial routes of one of these peaks from 1990-2006).
In Chart A-2 the blue columns and trend line show member ascent rates during the
1950-1989 period, and the red columns and trend line show ascent rates during the
1990-2006 period for all peaks and routes. The green columns and trend line show
ascent rates during the 1990-2006 period factoring out the commercial routes on
Ama Dablam, Cho Oyu, and Everest. The difference between the red and green trend
lines illustrates the impact of commercial climbing after 1990 as the red trend line is
substantially higher than the green trend line.
Segregating out the commercial routes for the 1950-1989 period does not substantially
affect the member ascent rates during that period since earlier expeditions did
not concentrate so much on those routes, but were more eager to explore new and
unclimbed routes. Many climbers since 1990 are pursuing quests for the seven
summits and the fourteen 8000ers and thus want to climb Everest and Cho Oyu as
quickly and simply as possible.
Popular Peaks by Altitude Range
Chart A-3 gives member ascent rates for the most popular peaks in Nepal, those peaks
with more than 750 total climbers above base camp (roughly equivalent to 75 or more
expeditions).
Member ascent rates for two commercial peaks, Ama Dablam at 54.4% and Cho Oyu at
37.8%, are higher than the mean (average) of 27.9% for all peaks (in black), while the
ascent rate for Everest is lower at 22.4%.
Member ascent rates for all of these peaks or groups are significantly higher or lower
(statistically) than the 27.9% mean ascent rate for all peaks except for Lhotse, which
has an ascent rate very close to the mean ascent rate for all peaks.
The next group of charts shows member ascent rates grouped by 6000m, 7000m, and
8000m altitudes for the most popular peaks in Nepal.
Chart A-4 shows the 6000m peaks with 50 or more members above base camp. Ama
Dablam accounts for 52% of the members above base camp and 67% of the member
ascents for all 6000m peaks. If this peak were omitted from the counts, the overall
ascent rate for the other 6000ers would drop from 46.2% to 37.5%.
Two of the peaks in Chart A-4, Langsisa Ri and Cholatse, were reclassified as
trekking peaks in 2002. Expeditions to those peaks after that date are not counted in
the 6000m totals. Expeditions to Dhampus since 2001 are also no longer tracked in
The Himalayan Database as this peak is very easy and is often climbed illegally by
trekking groups.
Lamjung, Cholatse, and Bhrikuti do not have significantly higher or lower ascent rates
than the mean for all 6000ers since their rates are very close to the mean. Langsisa Ri
and Rathong with few members above base camp are still too close to the mean to be
significant.
Ascent Analysis 43