The Himalaya by the Numbers: A Statistical Analysis - Himalayan ...

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3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.82 82 Death Analysis 0 1.08 Death Rates by Peak Altitude (1950-1989) 0.78 2.70 1.59 3.27 3.25 6000-6499m 6500-6999m 7000-7499m 7500-7999m 8000-8499m 8500-8850m 0 0 Chart D-1a: Member and hired death rates for all peaks from 1950-1989 0.56 0.30 0.50 2.09 Members (1950-1989) Hired (1950-1989) Trend (Members) Trend (Hired) Death Rates by Peak Altitude (1990-2006) (with and without 2005 Kang Guru accident) 1.80 1.03 2.24 6000-6499m 6500-6999m 7000-7499m 7500-7999m 8000-8499m 8500-8850m Chart D-1b: Member and hired death rates for all peaks from 1990-2006 with and without the 2005 Kang Guru accident 1.48 Members (1990-2006) w/o KGUR Hired (1990-2006) w/o KGUR Members (1990-2006) with KGUR Hired (1990-2006) with KGUR Trend (Members (1990-2006) w/o KGUR) Trend (Hired (1990-2006) w/o KGUR) Trend (Members (1990-2006) with KGUR) Trend (Hired (1990-2006) with KGUR) 0 1.22 1.32 2.71 2.17 1.44 0.69 1.74
at 3.25% and then decline at the highest altitudes, while the hired death rates top out at 2.71% in the 8000-8499m range, suggesting that the 7500-8499m peaks are the deadliest for members while the 8000-8499m peaks are the dead liest for hired personnel. Hired personnel also fare better than members in all altitude ranges. Chart D-1b shows member and hired death rates from 1990 to 2006, showing the death rates both when the 2005 Kanguru accident is included and excluded. Death rates for members have decreased in all groups when compared to the 1950-1989 period. Death rates for hired generally have decreased from the those of the 1950-1989 period except in the 6500-6999m range (and only when the Kang Guru accident is included) and in the 7000-7499m range. But in the 7500-7999m range, the hired death rate has dropped to zero, most likely due to the fewer hired personnel used above base camp by more recent expeditions attempting the 7000ers in alpine style. When the commercial routes for Ama Dablam, Cho Oyu, and Everest are separated out in the 1990-2006 period, a different picture emerges as shown in Table and Chart D-2. The early 1990s coincide with the increase in popularity of commercial climbing, which has contributed significantly to the numbers of climbers going above base camp (53% of all climbers above base camp were on the commercial routes of one of these three peaks after 1990). Members Hired 1990-2006 Above BC Death Cnt Death Rate Above BC Death Cnt Death Rate 6000-6499m 556 0 0.00 156 0 0.00 6500-6999m w/o Ama Dablam Com Rte 924 10 1.08 260 13 5.00 7000-7499m 3099 32 1.03 715 16 2.24 7500-7999m 744 11 1.48 217 0 0.00 8000-8499m w/o Cho Oyu Com Rte 2976 67 2.25 867 24 2.77 8500-8850m w/o Everest Com Rtes 1852 28 1.51 999 8 0.80 Totals w/o Commercial Routes 10151 148 1.46 3214 61 1.90 Ama Dablam Commercial Route 2696 8 0.30 629 3 0.48 Cho Oyu Commercial Route 4340 22 0.51 1182 3 0.25 Everest Commercial Routes 4549 64 1.41 3380 22 0.65 Totals with Commercial Routes 11585 94 0.82 5191 28 0.54 Table D-2: Deaths for peak altitude ranges (6000-8850m) from 1990-2006 with Ama Dablam, Cho Oyu, and Everest commercial routes separated out (and excluding the 2005 Kang Guru accident) Comparing Charts D-1b and D-2, one can see that the death rates are higher when the Ama Dablam, Cho Oyu, and Everest commercial routes are removed and more closely resemble what one would expect for Himalayan climbing. In Chart D-2 the death rate continues to climb into the 8000m-8499m range topping out at 2.33% for members and 2.85% for hired, then declines for the very highest peaks. Note that if the 2005 Kang Guru accident were not excluded, the highest death rate for hired would be in the 6500-6999m range at 5.00%. The three most dangerous peaks, Annapurna I, Manaslu, and Dhaulagiri I (see Table D-3) are in the 8000m-8499m range and their death rates are strongly affected by avalanches (see the later section on avalanche deaths). Death Analysis 83
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The Himalaya by the Numbers A Stati
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Contents Introduction . . . . . . .
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the first north-south traverses. Th
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in the charts, 2 or 3-period moving
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400 300 200 100 0 2000 1800 1600 14
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2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 6
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government starting in 1997 opened
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500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
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them. In fact during the late 1980s
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During the 1960s and early 1970s, e
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250 200 150 100 50 0 250 200 150 10
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100 75 50 25 0 1970 1971 1972 1973
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a few brave and hardy souls are wil
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900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
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Charts C-7a-c show the seasonal pat
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Page 36 and 37: closeness of the Himalaya. Many Jap
Page 38 and 39: For all peaks, the average team mem
Page 40 and 41: Periodically, massive storms fueled
Page 42 and 43: 40 Analysis of Climbing Activity
Page 44 and 45: three most popular peaks, Ama Dabla
Page 46 and 47: 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 11.7 ANN1 (121/
Page 48 and 49: 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 7.7 11.7 T
Page 50 and 51: 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 40 35 30 25
Page 52 and 53: The results indicate that the sprin
Page 54 and 55: 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 30 25 20 15
Page 56 and 57: 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70 60 50 40
Page 58 and 59: 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 80 70 60 5
Page 60 and 61: 100 60 50 40 30 20 10 90 80 70 60 5
Page 62 and 63: Ascents by Citizenship Table A-24 s
Page 64 and 65: Ascents by Gender Table and Chart A
Page 66 and 67: 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Chart A-27: Asc
Page 68 and 69: had a hard time making her own plat
Page 70 and 71: 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Page 72 and 73: 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
Page 74 and 75: 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 80 70 60 50 40
Page 76 and 77: 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 60 50 40 30
Page 78 and 79: Peak ID Peak Name Height Region 76
Page 80 and 81: Members have higher percentage of a
Page 82 and 83: considerable effort through deep sn
Page 86 and 87: 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 0 The
Page 88 and 89: Deadliest Peaks for Members The nex
Page 90 and 91: when five Austrians and their Sherp
Page 92 and 93: 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4.5 4.0 3.5
Page 94 and 95: days in 1975 (the first verified as
Page 96 and 97: Whether significant or not, the dea
Page 98 and 99: and higher spring death rates on Ma
Page 100 and 101: of an autumn 1992 Makalu II expedit
Page 102 and 103: a climb. For hired, falls were the
Page 104 and 105: Summit and the Hillary Step (9 of 2
Page 106 and 107: summer season as very few climbers
Page 108 and 109: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 106 Death A
Page 110 and 111: 100 20 18 16 14 12 10 90 80 70 60 5
Page 112 and 113: Deaths by Falling While avalanching
Page 114 and 115: 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 16 14 12 10
Page 116 and 117: Time of Day All Peaks 6000ers All F
Page 118 and 119: Deaths by Physiological Causes Phys
Page 120 and 121: Deaths by Age Groups Table and Char
Page 122 and 123: Deaths by Expedition Years Chart D-
Page 124 and 125: All Peaks Everest Citizenship Above
Page 126 and 127: 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 10.0 9.0 8.
Page 128 and 129: Table and Chart D-42 below show mem
Page 130 and 131: Table and Chart D-44 below show mem
Page 132 and 133: Everest, Spring 1996 A total of eig
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On the evening of 6th it started to
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camp at 7500m but there was nothing
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Peak ID Peak Name 136 Appendix A Al
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146 Appendix A
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In Chart D-4, the sample sizes are
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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 32.2 2
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45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 11.9 4.
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6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1.16 0.43 0.13 BARU (
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16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2.42 1.80 700
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30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1.29 0.09 0.41 1
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8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 3.04 0.0 LSHR (0/
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5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
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