Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

Executive summary
Do biofuels help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and do they o�er new sources of
income to farmers, by producing biomass? Are biofuels competing with food, animal feed
and contributing to higher food prices? And are biofuels directly or indirectly threatening
the environment, biodiversity, causing irreversible or undesirable changes in land use and
landscape?
�is publication aims to set the stage for the discussion about both challenges and
concerns of sugarcane ethanol by providing the scienti�c context, the basic concepts and
the approach for understanding the debate on biofuel-related issues. �is book largely
limits itself to sugarcane ethanol and its contribution to climate change mitigation and the
environment.
�e main �ndings and conclusions are:
1. �e dominance of Brazil in global sugarcane production and expansion – Brazil
accounted for 75 percent of sugarcane area increase in the period 2000 to 2007 and
two-thirds of global production increase in that period – derives from its experience
and capability to respond to thriving demand for transport fuels, which was recently
triggered by measures to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions of the rapidly growing
transport sector, concerns in developed countries to enhance energy security and lessen
dependence on petroleum, and not the least the need of many developing countries to
reduce import bills for fossil oil.
2. According to the IIASA/AEZ assessment, the most suitable climates for rain-fed
sugarcane production are found in south-eastern parts of South America, e.g. including
São Paulo State in Brazil, but also large areas in Central Africa as well as some areas in
Southeast Asia. �e massive further expansion of sugarcane areas, e.g. as forecasted for
Brazil, is expected to cause the conversion of pastoral lands in the savannah region.
3. �is study analyzes the land use changes (LUC) in Brazil caused by sugarcane expansion,
looking both at the past and expected future dynamics. Remote sensing images have
identi�ed that in 2007 and 2008 Pasture and Agriculture classes together were responsible
for almost 99% of the total area displaced for sugarcane expansion which equals an
area of more than 2 million ha. Pasture was responsible for approximately 45% and
Agriculture was responsible for more than 50% of the displaced area for sugarcane.
About 1% of sugarcane expansion took place over the Citrus class and less than 1% over
the Reforestation and Forest classes together. Pasture displacement is more important
in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, while Agriculture is more important in the other
states analyzed.
4. �e shi�-share model using IBGE micro-regional data has analyzed sugarcane expansion
from 2002 to 2006 and has identi�ed around 1 million ha in the ten Brazilian states
analyzed. From this total expansion, 773 thousand ha displaced pasture land and 103
thousands displaced other crops, while only 125 thousand ha were not able to be allocated
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