Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Chapter 10 • 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 actual biofuel growth, 2000-2007 continuation of 1990-2000 biofuel growth 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Figure 12. Biofuels: Impact on world cereal prices since 2000. Source: Impact Simulations 2008. IFPRI. – Rapid growth in biofuel demand has contributed to the rapid rise in cereal prices, but it has not been a dominant driving force in the 2000-07 period, except perhaps in the case of maize. – �e fundamentals of supply and demand seem to be playing more of a role in the rapid increase in prices during this period, especially for commodities like rice and wheat. – A�er 2007 prices increases – for rice in particular – seem to be driven by the relatively ‘thin’ nature of the rice market with a limited amount of international trade compared to total production. – Unilateral trade policy actions of individual Asian countries, which have sought to put into place export bans and import subsidies for rice. – Speculative trading and storage behaviour; private operators taking advantage of opportunities. Agri-Canada quanti�ed the impact of all the policy responses (Figure 13). �e impact of policies added a few percent for almost all commodities, except for rice where the impact is substantial (16%). Experts are pointing out that it is hard to quantify the separate impacts. �e contribution of biofuel demand to the increase in average cereal prices of 30% presented by IFPRI was criticized by some colleagues. Some �nd it too high, other too low. However, all studies point out that a combination of factors was responsible for the rise. �e analyses of OECD, FAPRI and also of Banse et al. (2008a,b) indicated that the impact on world price levels is commodity speci�c. For maize the impact is relatively high due to the fact that most US ethanol production is maize-based. For other cereals – e.g. wheat and rice, where the use for biofuels is almost zero – only indirect e�ects over the land use a�ects the world price level. For those commodities an estimated increase of 30% – as indicated in the IFPRI estimates – seems to be rather high. 240 Sugarcane ethanol
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5. The future Wheat Maize 2007-08 2008-09 Why are current food prices so high? Oilseeds Veg.oil Figure 13. Impact of export restriction policies on world prices. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, unpublished. A�er the discussion of those driving elements which contributed to the current spike in food prices this section depicts some elements which might contribute to the long-term development of agri-food prices. �is sections also allows to identify possible solutions for the current crisis on world food markets. • High prices are their own worst enemy. Increased pro�t margins entice entrepreneurial investment, which results in increased production. Lower market prices inevitably follow. �e ‘invisible hand’ of Adam Smith ensures that winners’ gains and losers’ losses will be temporary, as entrepreneurs correct market imbalances. In the USA, in the 2008 spring planting farmers are shi�ing from maize to wheat and soybeans, setting the prices of the latter on a downward trajectory and stabilising the price of the former. • Higher prices induce more production as planted areas increase and available arable land will be used more intensively. �erefore, the current situation is not structural and as a result prices will go down again. However, �rst stocks have to be built up again. Both e�ects take some time. In Brazil and Russia there are ample opportunities as additional land can be taken into production, whereas in many other countries production can only be higher due to intensi�cation. According to USDA analyses, Russia, Ukraine and Argentina can become one of the world’s top grain exporters. • R&D investments in agriculture (e.g. yields, etc.) become more pro�table with higher food prices. • Strategic stocks are essential to limit price volatility in world agricultural markets, but they are costly. • �e expected impact on world prices of the 10% EU-biofuel directive and the various global biofuel initiatives is depicted in the graph below (Banse et al., 2008a,b). If all initiatives are implemented together and technological change stays on the historic trend, Sugarcane ethanol 241 Rice
Page 1 and 2:
Sugarcane ethanol Contributions to
Page 3 and 4:
Table of contents Foreword 11 José
Page 5:
Chapter 8 �e global impacts of US
Page 8 and 9:
Foreword �e use of biofuels as a
Page 11 and 12:
Executive summary Do biofuels help
Page 13 and 14:
Executive summary 12. Projections o
Page 15 and 16:
Chapter 1 Introduction to sugarcane
Page 17 and 18:
Introduction to sugarcane ethanol A
Page 19 and 20:
Introduction to sugarcane ethanol C
Page 21 and 22:
Introduction to sugarcane ethanol F
Page 23:
Introduction to sugarcane ethanol H
Page 26 and 27:
Chapter 2 Production (million tons)
Page 28 and 29:
Chapter 2 Table 2. Sugarcane produc
Page 30 and 31:
Chapter 2 Harvested area (million h
Page 32 and 33:
Chapter 2 million hectares 8 7 6 5
Page 34 and 35:
Chapter 2 Table 5. Global significa
Page 36 and 37:
Chapter 2 (FAOSTAT, 2008). �e lan
Page 38 and 39:
Chapter 2 indicating that sugarcane
Page 40 and 41:
Chapter 2 and vinasse produced duri
Page 42 and 43:
Chapter 2 • • • • Harvested
Page 44 and 45:
Chapter 2 2.2. AEZ assessment of la
Page 46 and 47:
Chapter 2 The quantified descriptio
Page 48 and 49:
Chapter 2 Table 8 summarizes by reg
Page 50 and 51:
Chapter 2 Table 9. Suitability of u
Page 52 and 53:
Chapter 2 Table 10. Suitability of
Page 54 and 55:
Chapter 2 of bio-diversity and land
Page 56 and 57:
Chapter 2 FAO, 1987. 1948-1985 Worl
Page 58 and 59:
Chapter 2 Smeets, E., M. Junginger,
Page 60 and 61:
Chapter 3 Considering that this deb
Page 62 and 63:
Chapter 3 1,000 ha 9,000 8,000 7,00
Page 64 and 65:
Chapter 3 Another source of data on
Page 66 and 67:
Chapter 3 Figure 3. Different land
Page 68 and 69:
Chapter 3 1-Pastureand crops expans
Page 70 and 71:
Chapter 3 Given that the model is u
Page 72 and 73:
Chapter 3 to the case studies; (d)
Page 74 and 75:
Chapter 3 Mato Grosso do Sul in 200
Page 76 and 77:
Chapter 3 the Pasture class increas
Page 78 and 79:
Chapter 3 Table 5. Number of sugarc
Page 80 and 81:
Chapter 3 of 12.6% from 2001 to 200
Page 82 and 83:
Chapter 3 Table 6. South-Centre: ex
Page 84 and 85:
Chapter 3 4.5. Options for approach
Page 86 and 87:
Chapter 3 states that have lost pas
Page 88 and 89:
Chapter 3 It is important to contex
Page 91 and 92:
Chapter 4 Mitigation of GHG emissio
Page 93 and 94:
Table 1. Basic data: sugarcane prod
Page 95 and 96:
Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
Page 97 and 98:
GHG emission (kg CO 2 eq/m 3 etOH)
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Table 7. Soil carbon content for di
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
5. Conclusions Mitigation of GHG em
Page 107:
Page 110 and 111:
Chapter 5 Oil reserves - Gasoline/d
Page 112 and 113:
Chapter 5 in research and developme
Page 114 and 115:
Chapter 5 Table 3. Summary of main
Page 116 and 117:
Chapter 5 3. Environmental indicato
Page 118 and 119:
Chapter 5 Table 4. Carbon stock in
Page 120 and 121:
Chapter 5 3.2. Water Total carbon i
Page 122 and 123:
Chapter 5 3.3. Soil and fertilizers
Page 124 and 125:
Chapter 5 3.4. Management of diseas
Page 126 and 127:
Chapter 5 Table 10. Sugarcane and v
Page 128 and 129:
Chapter 5 in the implementation of
Page 130 and 131:
Chapter 5 Table 11. Continued. Crit
Page 132 and 133:
Chapter 5 Brazilian Government. Lei
Page 134 and 135:
Chapter 5 São Paulo State Governme
Page 136 and 137:
Chapter 6 2. Development of the eth
Page 138 and 139:
Chapter 6 blends by car manufacture
Page 140 and 141:
Chapter 6 Brazil have been roughly
Page 142 and 143:
Chapter 6 Overall there are few di
Page 144 and 145:
Chapter 6 3.2.1. The impact of exis
Page 146 and 147:
Chapter 6 �e use of ethanol in he
Page 148 and 149:
Chapter 6 cropping systems that pro
Page 150 and 151:
Chapter 6 certainty, the supply of
Page 152 and 153:
Chapter 6 De Vries, B.J.M., D.P. va
Page 155 and 156:
Chapter 7 Biofuel conversion techno
Page 157 and 158:
Biofuel conversion technologies �
Page 159 and 160:
Biofuel conversion technologies In
Page 161 and 162:
Biofuel conversion technologies the
Page 163 and 164:
Biofuel conversion technologies Imp
Page 165 and 166:
Biofuel conversion technologies Pro
Page 167 and 168:
Investment costs (Euro/kWth input c
Page 169 and 170:
4.2. Greenhouse gas balances Biofue
Page 171 and 172:
Reduction in CO equivalent emission
Page 173 and 174:
Biofuel conversion technologies �
Page 175 and 176:
Biofuel conversion technologies pot
Page 177 and 178:
Chapter 8 The global impacts of US
Page 179 and 180:
The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 181 and 182:
Page 183 and 184:
Page 185 and 186: The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 187 and 188: Table 1. Change in output due to EU
Page 189 and 190: The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 191 and 192: Forest cover Pasture cover USEU 201
Page 193: The global impacts of US and EU bio
Page 196 and 197: Chapter 9 also risks and serious tr
Page 198 and 199: Chapter 9 Box 2. Bioethanol stoves
Page 200 and 201: Chapter 9 �e highest impact on po
Page 202 and 203: Chapter 9 the increased generation
Page 204 and 205: Chapter 9 o�ers to support the MD
Page 206 and 207: Chapter 9 Price variation (%) 14 12
Page 208 and 209: Chapter 9 Dufey et al., 2007a). Leg
Page 210 and 211: Chapter 9 manufactured directly fro
Page 212 and 213: Chapter 9 in mechanical aid for the
Page 214 and 215: Chapter 9 Table 1. Import tariffs o
Page 216 and 217: Chapter 9 3.8. Improving efficiency
Page 218 and 219: Chapter 9 some minimum transport in
Page 220 and 221: Chapter 9 IEA, 2004. Biofuels for T
Page 223 and 224: Chapter 10 Why are current food pri
Page 225 and 226: Why are current food prices so high
Page 227 and 228: 2.4 Long-term drivers of supply Why
Page 229 and 230: 3.1. Effects on the supply side Why
Page 231 and 232: 3.3 Policy responses to rising food
Page 233 and 234: 3.4. Other effects • Why are curr
Page 235: - - - - Why are current food prices
Page 239 and 240: • • • Why are current food pr
Page 241 and 242: 6.1. Policy implications Why are cu
Page 243: Why are current food prices so high
Page 247 and 248: Authors Dr. Marcos Adami, senior re
Page 249 and 250: Keyword index A Africa 204, 205, 20
Page 251: M maize 20, 83, 104, 173, 184, 187,
show all

Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?