Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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Executive summary over previous productive areas (meaning new land has been incorporated into agricultural production, which might be attributed to the conversion of forest to agriculture or to the use of previously idle areas). Total agricultural area growth – the sum of all crops, including sugarcane, and pastures – in the period was around 3.3 million ha. 5. Projections indicate that harvested sugarcane area in Brazil will reach 11.7 million ha and other crops 43.8 million ha in 2018, while pasture area will decrease around 3 million ha. �e total land area in Brazil is 851.196.500 ha. 6. �e expansion of crops, except sugarcane, and pasture land is taking place despite of the sugarcane expansion. �is is important because it reinforces that, even recognizing that sugarcane expansion contributes to the displacement of other crops and pasture, there is no evidence that deforestation caused by indirect land use e�ect is a consequence of sugarcane expansion. 7. Sugarcane ethanol from Brazil does comply with the targets of greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction. 8. �e GHG emissions and mitigation from fuel ethanol production/use in Brazil are evaluated for the 2006/07 season, and for two scenarios for 2020: the 2020 Electricity Scenario (already being implemented) aiming at increasing electricity surplus with cane biomass residues; and the 2020 Ethanol Scenario using the residues for ethanol production. Emissions are evaluated from cane production to ethanol end use; process data was obtained from 40 mills in Brazilian Centre South. Energy ratios grow from 9.4 (2006) to 12.1 (2020, the two Scenarios); and the corresponding GHG mitigation increase from 79% (2006) to 86% (2020) if only the ethanol is considered. With co-products (electricity) it would be 120%. LUC derived GHG emissions were negative in the period 2002 – 2008, and very little impact (if any) is expected for 2008 – 2020, due mostly to the large availability of land with poor carbon stocks. Although indirect land use changes (ILUC) impacts cannot be adequately evaluated today, speci�c conditions in Brazil may lead to signi�cant increases in ethanol production without positive ILUC emissions. 9. Brazil has achieved very high levels of productivity (on average 7.000 litres of ethanol/ha and 6,1 MWhr of energy/ha), despite its lower inputs of fertilizers and agrochemicals compared with other biofuels, while reducing signi�cantly the emissions of greenhouse gases. �e ending of sugarcane burning in 2014 is a good example of improving existing practices. 10. Production of ethanol in Brazil, which has been rising fast, is expected to reach 70 billion litres by the end of 2008. Approximately 80% of this volume will be used in the transport sector while the rest will go into alcoholic beverages or will be either used for industrial purposes (solvent, disinfectant, chemical feedstock, etc.). 11. When evaluating key drivers for ethanol demand, energy security and climate change are considered to be the most important objectives reported by nearly all countries that engage in bioenergy development activities. A next factor is the growth in demand for transport fuels. A third factor is vehicle technologies that already enable large scale use of ethanol. 16 Sugarcane ethanol
Executive summary 12. Projections of ethanol production for Brazil, the USA and the EU indicate that supply of 165 billion litres by 2020 could be achieved with the use of a combination of �rst and second generation ethanol production technologies. 13. Compared to current average vehicle performance, considerable improvements are possible in drive chain technologies and their respective e�ciencies and emission pro�les. IEA does project that in a timeframe towards 2030, increased vehicle e�ciency will play a signi�cant role in slowing down the growth in demand for transport fuels. With further technology re�nements, which could include direct injection and regenerative breaking, fuel ethanol economy of 24 km/litre may be possible. Such operating conditions, can also deliver very low emissions. 14. Future ethanol markets could be characterized by a diverse set of supplying and producing regions. From the current fairly concentrated supply (and demand) of ethanol, a future international market could evolve into a truly global market, supplied by many producers, resulting in stable and reliable biofuel sources. �is balancing role of an open market and trade is a crucial precondition for developing ethanol production capacities worldwide. 15. However, the combination of lignocellulosic resources (biomass residues on shorter term and cultivated biomass on medium term) and second generation conversion technology o�ers a very strong perspective. Also, the economic perspectives for such second generation concepts are very strong, o�ering competitiveness with oil prices equivalent to some 55 US$/barrel around 2020. 16. First generation biofuels in temperate regions (EU, North America) do not o�er a sustainable possibility in the long term: they remain expensive compared to gasoline and diesel (even at high oil prices), are o�en ine�cient in terms of net energy and GHG gains and have a less desirable environmental impact. Furthermore, they can only be produced on higher quality farmland in direct competition with food production. Sugarcane based ethanol production and to a certain extent palm oil and Jatropha oilseeds are notable exceptions to this, given their high production e�ciencies and low(er) costs. 17. Especially promising are the production via advanced conversion concepts biomassderived fuels such as methanol, hydrogen, and ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass. Ethanol produced from sugarcane is already a competitive biofuel in tropical regions and further improvements are possible. Both hydrolysis-based ethanol production and production of synthetic fuels via advanced gasi�cation from biomass of around 2 Euro/GJ can deliver high quality fuels at a competitive price with oil down to US$55/ barrel. Net energy yields per unit of land surface are high and up to a 90% reduction in GHG emissions can be achieved. �is requires a development and commercialization pathway of 10-20 years, depending very much on targeted and stable policy support and frameworks. 18. Global land use changes induced by US and EU biofuels mandates show that when it comes to the assessing the impacts of these mandates on third economies, the combined policies have a much greater impact than just the US or just the EU policies alone, with crop cover rising sharply in Latin America, Africa and Oceania as a result of the biofuel Sugarcane ethanol 17
Page 1 and 2: Sugarcane ethanol Contributions to
Page 3 and 4: Table of contents Foreword 11 José
Page 5: Chapter 8 �e global impacts of US
Page 8 and 9: Foreword �e use of biofuels as a
Page 11: Executive summary Do biofuels help
Page 15 and 16: Chapter 1 Introduction to sugarcane
Page 17 and 18: Introduction to sugarcane ethanol A
Page 19 and 20: Introduction to sugarcane ethanol C
Page 21 and 22: Introduction to sugarcane ethanol F
Page 23: Introduction to sugarcane ethanol H
Page 26 and 27: Chapter 2 Production (million tons)
Page 28 and 29: Chapter 2 Table 2. Sugarcane produc
Page 30 and 31: Chapter 2 Harvested area (million h
Page 32 and 33: Chapter 2 million hectares 8 7 6 5
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Table 5. Global significa
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 (FAOSTAT, 2008). �e lan
Page 38 and 39: Chapter 2 indicating that sugarcane
Page 40 and 41: Chapter 2 and vinasse produced duri
Page 42 and 43: Chapter 2 • • • • Harvested
Page 44 and 45: Chapter 2 2.2. AEZ assessment of la
Page 46 and 47: Chapter 2 The quantified descriptio
Page 48 and 49: Chapter 2 Table 8 summarizes by reg
Page 50 and 51: Chapter 2 Table 9. Suitability of u
Page 52 and 53: Chapter 2 Table 10. Suitability of
Page 54 and 55: Chapter 2 of bio-diversity and land
Page 56 and 57: Chapter 2 FAO, 1987. 1948-1985 Worl
Page 58 and 59: Chapter 2 Smeets, E., M. Junginger,
Page 60 and 61: Chapter 3 Considering that this deb
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Chapter 3 1,000 ha 9,000 8,000 7,00
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Chapter 3 Another source of data on
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Chapter 3 Figure 3. Different land
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Chapter 3 1-Pastureand crops expans
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Chapter 3 Given that the model is u
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Chapter 3 to the case studies; (d)
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Chapter 3 Mato Grosso do Sul in 200
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Chapter 3 the Pasture class increas
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Chapter 3 Table 5. Number of sugarc
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Chapter 3 of 12.6% from 2001 to 200
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Chapter 3 Table 6. South-Centre: ex
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Chapter 3 4.5. Options for approach
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Chapter 3 states that have lost pas
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Chapter 3 It is important to contex
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Chapter 4 Mitigation of GHG emissio
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Table 1. Basic data: sugarcane prod
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Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
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GHG emission (kg CO 2 eq/m 3 etOH)
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Table 7. Soil carbon content for di
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5. Conclusions Mitigation of GHG em
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Chapter 5 Oil reserves - Gasoline/d
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Chapter 5 in research and developme
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Chapter 5 Table 3. Summary of main
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Chapter 5 3. Environmental indicato
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Chapter 5 Table 4. Carbon stock in
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Chapter 5 3.2. Water Total carbon i
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Chapter 5 3.3. Soil and fertilizers
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Chapter 5 3.4. Management of diseas
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Chapter 5 Table 10. Sugarcane and v
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Chapter 5 in the implementation of
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Chapter 5 Table 11. Continued. Crit
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Chapter 5 Brazilian Government. Lei
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Chapter 5 São Paulo State Governme
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Chapter 6 2. Development of the eth
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Chapter 6 blends by car manufacture
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Chapter 6 Brazil have been roughly
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Chapter 6 Overall there are few di
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Chapter 6 3.2.1. The impact of exis
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Chapter 6 �e use of ethanol in he
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Chapter 6 cropping systems that pro
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Chapter 6 certainty, the supply of
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Chapter 6 De Vries, B.J.M., D.P. va
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Chapter 7 Biofuel conversion techno
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies In
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Biofuel conversion technologies the
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Biofuel conversion technologies Imp
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Biofuel conversion technologies Pro
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Investment costs (Euro/kWth input c
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4.2. Greenhouse gas balances Biofue
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Reduction in CO equivalent emission
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies pot
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Chapter 8 The global impacts of US
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The global impacts of US and EU bio
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Page 185 and 186:
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Table 1. Change in output due to EU
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Forest cover Pasture cover USEU 201
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Chapter 9 also risks and serious tr
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Chapter 9 Box 2. Bioethanol stoves
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Chapter 9 �e highest impact on po
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Chapter 9 the increased generation
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Chapter 9 o�ers to support the MD
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Chapter 9 Price variation (%) 14 12
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Chapter 9 Dufey et al., 2007a). Leg
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Chapter 9 manufactured directly fro
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Chapter 9 in mechanical aid for the
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Chapter 9 Table 1. Import tariffs o
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Chapter 9 3.8. Improving efficiency
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Chapter 9 some minimum transport in
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Chapter 9 IEA, 2004. Biofuels for T
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Chapter 10 Why are current food pri
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Why are current food prices so high
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2.4 Long-term drivers of supply Why
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3.1. Effects on the supply side Why
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3.3 Policy responses to rising food
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3.4. Other effects • Why are curr
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- - - - Why are current food prices
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18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5. The fut
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• • • Why are current food pr
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6.1. Policy implications Why are cu
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Why are current food prices so high
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Authors Dr. Marcos Adami, senior re
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Keyword index A Africa 204, 205, 20
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M maize 20, 83, 104, 173, 184, 187,
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Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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