Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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Chapter 3 Table 6. South-Centre: expected land allocation for sugarcane, grains and pastures (1,000 ha and heads). 2008 2018 Net growth Sugarcane (ha) 6,359 9,654 3,295 Grains (ha) 26,332 29,529 3,198 Pasture (ha) 92,328 86,215 -6,113 Total (ha) 125,018 125,398 380 Cattle herd (hd) 119,399 125,501 6,102 Detailed analysis on sugarcane, crops and pasture expansion was developed for the South- Central region, in order to standardize the producing regions with the past land use change presented in the previous sections. Figure 9 shows the results obtained for São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. Sugarcane expansion will follow trends in terms of land use change similar to the ones observed in the past. �e absolute variation shows that expansion will be larger in São Paulo, with 1.9 million ha expansion. However, the relative variation shows that Minas Gerais (98 percent growth in comparison to 2008), Paraná (98 percent expansion), Goiás (118 percent expansion) and Mato Grosso do Sul (105 percent) are the states where sugarcane will present the most dynamic expansion. Apart from Minas Gerais, pasture is losing area in all states, while crops area is decreasing only in São Paulo. Due to this strong reduction in pasture and simultaneous growth in sugarcane and crops, the results indicate that both categories are displacing pasture. Microregional data in states such as Paraná and Goiás allow us to conclude that crops area displaced by sugarcane is partially compensated over pastures areas. �e reduction on pastures area, as already shown in Table 6, is expected to be compensated by yields improvement. Even in states where cattle herd tend to fall, such as São Paulo and Paraná, pasture area reduction does not compromise beef and dairy production. In the Centre-West states, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, pastures areas are declining and projected cattle herd is increasing, showing strong productivity gains. It is also important to say that pasture area is expected to increase only in the Amazon Biome region. However, this expansion is taken place independently of the other regions, because cattle herd is increasing in the South-Central region, which is the sugarcane expansion region. Projections also con�rm results observed by satellite images: as soon as the sugarcane increases its expansion, more pasture is displaced in comparison to grains. Pasture land displacement is majority in Minas Gerais and Centre-West states. In Paraná sugarcane expansion will push grains production to pastures area. We probably will see the same 86 Sugarcane ethanol
9,051 2% 2,842 1% 910,312 47% 331,232 58% São Paulo Paraná 1,027,675 53% 233,516 40% 248,177 99% Mato Grosso do Sul 57,421 10% Minas Gerais 113,223 30% 40,269 29% Goiás 14,611 3% 499,969 87% 261,014 70% 98,498 71% Mato Grosso Prospects of the sugarcane expansion in Brazil N.A. crops pasture Total expansion: São Paulo 1,938,211 Minas Gerais 572,000 Paraná 573,799 Goiás 374,237 Mato Grosso do Sul 251,018 Mato Grosso 138,767 Figure 9. Projection of crops and pasture displacement due to sugarcane expansion, from 2008 to 2018 in selected Brazilian states (in ha). Note: N.A. means not allocated over previous productive area. process in São Paulo, although not only pasture but also grains are strongly releasing land for sugarcane. Grains are releasing 1.6 million ha for sugarcane but, as can be observed in the Table 6, total area is expanding by 3.9 million ha, more than compensating the losses for sugarcane. Pasture area will be reduced by 6.1 million ha and sugarcane is contributing with 2.4 million ha of this total. Sugarcane ethanol 87
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Sugarcane ethanol Contributions to
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Table of contents Foreword 11 José
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Chapter 8 �e global impacts of US
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Foreword �e use of biofuels as a
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Executive summary Do biofuels help
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Executive summary 12. Projections o
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Chapter 1 Introduction to sugarcane
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol A
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol C
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol F
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Introduction to sugarcane ethanol H
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Chapter 2 Production (million tons)
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Chapter 2 Table 2. Sugarcane produc
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Chapter 2 Harvested area (million h
Page 32 and 33: Chapter 2 million hectares 8 7 6 5
Page 34 and 35: Chapter 2 Table 5. Global significa
Page 36 and 37: Chapter 2 (FAOSTAT, 2008). �e lan
Page 38 and 39: Chapter 2 indicating that sugarcane
Page 40 and 41: Chapter 2 and vinasse produced duri
Page 42 and 43: Chapter 2 • • • • Harvested
Page 44 and 45: Chapter 2 2.2. AEZ assessment of la
Page 46 and 47: Chapter 2 The quantified descriptio
Page 48 and 49: Chapter 2 Table 8 summarizes by reg
Page 50 and 51: Chapter 2 Table 9. Suitability of u
Page 52 and 53: Chapter 2 Table 10. Suitability of
Page 54 and 55: Chapter 2 of bio-diversity and land
Page 56 and 57: Chapter 2 FAO, 1987. 1948-1985 Worl
Page 58 and 59: Chapter 2 Smeets, E., M. Junginger,
Page 60 and 61: Chapter 3 Considering that this deb
Page 62 and 63: Chapter 3 1,000 ha 9,000 8,000 7,00
Page 64 and 65: Chapter 3 Another source of data on
Page 66 and 67: Chapter 3 Figure 3. Different land
Page 68 and 69: Chapter 3 1-Pastureand crops expans
Page 70 and 71: Chapter 3 Given that the model is u
Page 72 and 73: Chapter 3 to the case studies; (d)
Page 74 and 75: Chapter 3 Mato Grosso do Sul in 200
Page 76 and 77: Chapter 3 the Pasture class increas
Page 78 and 79: Chapter 3 Table 5. Number of sugarc
Page 80 and 81: Chapter 3 of 12.6% from 2001 to 200
Page 84 and 85: Chapter 3 4.5. Options for approach
Page 86 and 87: Chapter 3 states that have lost pas
Page 88 and 89: Chapter 3 It is important to contex
Page 91 and 92: Chapter 4 Mitigation of GHG emissio
Page 93 and 94: Table 1. Basic data: sugarcane prod
Page 95 and 96: Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
Page 97 and 98: GHG emission (kg CO 2 eq/m 3 etOH)
Page 101 and 102: Table 7. Soil carbon content for di
Page 105 and 106: 5. Conclusions Mitigation of GHG em
Page 107: Mitigation of GHG emissions using s
Page 110 and 111: Chapter 5 Oil reserves - Gasoline/d
Page 112 and 113: Chapter 5 in research and developme
Page 114 and 115: Chapter 5 Table 3. Summary of main
Page 116 and 117: Chapter 5 3. Environmental indicato
Page 118 and 119: Chapter 5 Table 4. Carbon stock in
Page 120 and 121: Chapter 5 3.2. Water Total carbon i
Page 122 and 123: Chapter 5 3.3. Soil and fertilizers
Page 124 and 125: Chapter 5 3.4. Management of diseas
Page 126 and 127: Chapter 5 Table 10. Sugarcane and v
Page 128 and 129: Chapter 5 in the implementation of
Page 130 and 131: Chapter 5 Table 11. Continued. Crit
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Chapter 5 Brazilian Government. Lei
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Chapter 5 São Paulo State Governme
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Chapter 6 2. Development of the eth
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Chapter 6 blends by car manufacture
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Chapter 6 Brazil have been roughly
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Chapter 6 Overall there are few di
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Chapter 6 3.2.1. The impact of exis
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Chapter 6 �e use of ethanol in he
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Chapter 6 cropping systems that pro
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Chapter 6 certainty, the supply of
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Chapter 6 De Vries, B.J.M., D.P. va
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Chapter 7 Biofuel conversion techno
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies In
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Biofuel conversion technologies the
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Biofuel conversion technologies Imp
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Biofuel conversion technologies Pro
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Investment costs (Euro/kWth input c
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4.2. Greenhouse gas balances Biofue
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Reduction in CO equivalent emission
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Biofuel conversion technologies �
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Biofuel conversion technologies pot
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Chapter 8 The global impacts of US
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The global impacts of US and EU bio
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Table 1. Change in output due to EU
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Forest cover Pasture cover USEU 201
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Chapter 9 also risks and serious tr
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Chapter 9 Box 2. Bioethanol stoves
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Chapter 9 �e highest impact on po
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Chapter 9 the increased generation
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Chapter 9 o�ers to support the MD
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Chapter 9 Price variation (%) 14 12
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Chapter 9 Dufey et al., 2007a). Leg
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Chapter 9 manufactured directly fro
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Chapter 9 in mechanical aid for the
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Chapter 9 Table 1. Import tariffs o
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Chapter 9 3.8. Improving efficiency
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Chapter 9 some minimum transport in
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Chapter 9 IEA, 2004. Biofuels for T
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Chapter 10 Why are current food pri
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Why are current food prices so high
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2.4 Long-term drivers of supply Why
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3.1. Effects on the supply side Why
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3.3 Policy responses to rising food
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3.4. Other effects • Why are curr
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- - - - Why are current food prices
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18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 5. The fut
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• • • Why are current food pr
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6.1. Policy implications Why are cu
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Why are current food prices so high
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Authors Dr. Marcos Adami, senior re
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Keyword index A Africa 204, 205, 20
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M maize 20, 83, 104, 173, 184, 187,
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Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

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