Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

The global impacts of US and EU biofuels policies
Table 2. Change in crop harvested area by region, due to EU and US biofuel mandates: 2006-2015 (%).
Region Crops
Coarse
grains
Oilseeds Sugarcane Other grains Other agri
USA 9.8 1.6 -5.7 -10 -2.7
Canada 3.5 16.9 -3.2 -2.6 -1.6
EU-27 -2.3 40 -7.4 -15.1 -6.1
Brazil -3.2 16 3.8 -10.9 -5.1
Japan 10.7 7.6 -0.7 0.8 -0.1
China-Hong Kong 1.2 8.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5
India -0.7 0.9 -0.7 0.5 -0.2
Latin American energy
exporters
1.8 11.3 -2.3 -0.2 -0.8
Rest of Latin America &
Caribbean
1.7 11.5 -1.6 -0.6 -0.3
EE & FSU energy exporters 0.5 18.1 -0.6 0.4 -0.5
Rest of Europe 2.3 10.5 0 1.8 0.4
Middle Eastern North Africa
energy exporters
4 8.6 -0.9 2.5 -0.4
Sub Saharan energy exporters -0.8 13.7 0 2.3 1.2
Rest of North Africa & SSA 1.5 14.2 -0.4 1.1 1.1
South Asian energy exporters -0.5 3.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1
Rest of high income Asia 3.7 6.1 -0.1 -0.2 0
Rest of Southeast & South Asia -0.2 2.9 -0.8 0 -0.1
Oceania countries 3.9 17.2 -0.6 -1.3 0.3
Note: These results are solely illustrative of the kinds of numerical results that are produced by the
analysis. They are not definitive results.
we estimate that pasturelands could decline by nearly 11% as a result of this global push for
biofuels, of which 8% decline is from EU mandates alone. �e largest percentage declines
in commercial forestry cover are in the EU and Canada, followed by Africa. In most other
regions, the percentage decline in forest cover is much smaller.
Our prospective analysis of the impacts of the biofuels boom on commodity markets focused
on the 2006-2015 time period, during which existing investments and new mandates in the
US and EU are expected to substantially increase the share of agricultural products (e.g.
maize in the US, oilseeds in the EU, and sugar in Brazil) utilized by the biofuels sector. In
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