Sugarcane ethanol: Contributions to climate change - BAFF

Chapter 3
to the case studies; (d) Sub-section 4.4 presents the projections on land use for sugarcane;
and (e) Sub-section 4.5 discusses options for analyzing ILUC.
A summary of the results obtained from the three di�erent methodologies used in this study
is presented in Table 3. Detailed results are discussed in the sub-sections.
Table 3. Land use classes converted to sugarcane: comparative results in the South-Central region
(1000 ha).
Period/measurement method
2002-2006
(harvested area) 1
4.1. LUC evaluation through remote sensing images
2007-2008
(planted area) 2
2008-2018
(harvested area) 3
Sugarcane expansion 1,030 2,184 3,848
Agriculture 122 (12%) 1,152 (53%) 1,455 (38%)
Pasture 793 (77%) 991 (45%) 2,369 (62%)
Other 114 (11%) 42 (2%) 24 (1%)
1 Source: secondary data from IBGE.
2 Source: satellite images.
3 Source: projection model.
�is sub-section analysis the expanded sugarcane area harvested for the �rst time and is
divided in three parts: (1) analysis comprising the years of 2007 and 2008 for the states of
Minas Gerais, Goiás, Paraná Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso; (2) analysis comprising
the period from 2005 to 2008 for the State of São Paulo; and (3) analysis comparing the years
of 2007 and 2008 for the reduced South-Central region 3 (or South-Central region minus
the states of Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul).
4.1.1. Analysis for the years of 2007 and 2008 in the states of Minas Gerais, Goiás,
Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso
Figure 5 shows the results for the Pasture, Agriculture, Reforestation and Forest classes which
were displaced for the expansion of sugarcane crop harvested for the �rst time in 2007 and
2008. Most of the expansion of sugarcane area took place over the Agriculture and Pasture
classes. �e Agriculture class registered the largest displaced area to sugarcane except for
76 Sugarcane ethanol